LEBANONESQUE

Off Blogging for a While

2008-05-25T09:07:00.004-04:00

Thanks to all my readers. I don't know when I'll be back.

Stay well, one and all.

Strike, Demonstrations, Mayhem across Lebanon

2008-05-07T16:29:00.006-04:00

So Hezbollah cuts the road to the airport and shuts down the airport, something “unacceptable” we were told by the army a while back. Beirut seems paralyzed with burning tires, blocked roads and rolling clashes.

Headlines from Naharnet Live Update(Link probably good one day).

8:13 pm Premier Saniora met Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and telephoned Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman and Defense Minister Elias Murr to discuss latest developments.

Great! The top dogs are “discussing”. You have to wonder when is it exactly time to actually ACT in the Saniora calendar?

8:14 Hizbullah mouthpiece Manar tv station: Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal movement said the government bears full responsibility of what happened today.

That’s right. YOU block the airport, the government is responsible. YOU shut down the downtown economy, the government is responsible. I agree with Berri on that one, only cuz the government has failed to blow all your asses to kingdom come already.

8:15 Saniora also contacted Saudi and Egyptian Foreign Ministers Saoud al-Faisal and Ahmad Abulgheit, and denied contacting U.S. official David Welch

Patheticus Ultimus Doofus Saniora is on the damn TELEPHONE again with people who live miles away and who could not care less about the average Beiruti. But God forbid, PC-correct asshole might speak with a US representative. Keep up appearances Foufou. Their knife is already cutting through your worthless throat, but appearances and your Arabist credentials are intact, ya air(head).

8:45 pm Lebanon Grand Mufti Mohammed Qabbani adresses [sic] the Lebanese

The head of the government, PMoron Saniora will discuss this with a Saudi newspaper, but only months from now. For now, the guy on TV in the middle of the crisis is, TADA: the Sunni MUFTI of the Banana Republic.

8:46 Hizbullah has become an armed force aims at occupying Beirut, Qabbani said

News to the downtown businesses that have been occupied for over a year now.

8:47 Qabbani warned Hizbullah against attacking the Lebanese civilians and hegemony over the Lebanese state and governmental institutions

OK but do the army and the government have a position on attacking civilians and property?

8:48 Hizbullah is trying to overpower Lebanon, Qabbani added
8:50 Lebanese Sunna are fed up with Hizbullah practices, Grand Mufti Qabbani said

Sunna fed up but here’s the big mystery: what do Armenian-Orthodox, Greek-Catholics and Bahais think of Hezbo practices? I wonder.

8:51 Qabbani called on Hizbullah leaders to pull their armed men out of Beirut's streets and its central district.

I am with Qabbani on that one, but what is the view of the security officers and ministers, or the PM, here? Still too early for a curfew or state of emergency?

And the night is young, but here is the PRIMARY reason for this post:

7:40pm March 14 forces asked Arab League and UNSC tp [sic} provide Arab-International protection for the Lebanese government and civilians against Hizbullah-led opposition’s armed groups

If this is true, and M14 is the government, could it be that the clueless bunch has figured out that the institutions of state are NOT working, contrary to Saniora’s Independence Day claim?

What does General Suleiman say about his guaranty that the army is willing and able to keep the peace?

And finally, if Hezbo leaders and allies are attacking the state and the people, isn’t it time to put their names on the wanted list and to stop calling them "resistance"?

Michel Suleiman-Bashar Assad Lovefest

2008-04-30T07:09:00.008-04:00

From Naharnet (April 30, 2008):

Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman has spoken to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by telephone to thank him for his supportive stance, local media said Wednesday.

Allo Hayati? Supportive of what? His blocked (by Syria) bid for the presidency? I guess it’s always good to kiss up to Bashar if you want a political future in Lebanon, or even if you just want to live if you happen to be a high ranking official living next to your lovely neighbor.

Assad, in an interview with Qatar's Al Watan newspaper last week, praised Suleiman, describing him as a "good" person.

Thanks Bashar, we all know you are the final arbiter of good and evil in the region. I hope Michel-Sally-Fields is happy: “they like you Micho, they really like you!”

"This is Syria's point of view (regarding Suleiman). It is also the (Lebanese) opposition's point of view," Assad said.

Syria does not meddle in Lebanese affairs. It does however have a point of view on the presidential election (and everything else Lebanese) and speaks for the independent opposition. It’s one of those Zen-middle-eastern things, like the sound of one hand clapping, that only Hassan Nasrallah and his useful idiot Michel Aoun understand.

Here’s the best part:

Suleiman also thanked Assad for going back on his decision to receive Lebanese army officers for military training [in Syria].

You see, Lebanon stopped sending officers for, ahem hem, “training” in Syria after the assassination of PM Hariri. We all should be very thankful now because our officers were missing out on important military lessons: how to defend impregnable positions like the Golan, or how to shoot down dastardly enemy planes bombing innocent North Korean facilities.

And lastly, another cliche straight out of 1984 and good old Soviet era Newspeak:

Suleiman and Assad also discussed "ways of coordination and cooperation" between the two armies.

Haven’t we had enough “coordination and cooperation” during the 30-year invasion of Lebanon by Syria? How about a little break from all that cuddling? And how about calling things by their real name like: “infiltration and endoctrination”?

PS In the meantime, that impotent master of the obvious and of the lame, Pat Sfeir, was telling us, well, the obvious and the lame, yet again.

The Intimidation of Judge Riachi Continues

2008-04-23T07:50:00.009-04:00

From the Daily Star:

BEIRUT: Justice Minister Charles Rizk said on Tuesday that veteran Judge Ralph Riachi's home in Al-Douwar, Mount Lebanon, had been vandalized by unknown individuals late Sunday in an apparent attempt to intimidate the jurist. Riachi is one of two judges assigned by the Lebanese government to cooperate with United Nations officials in setting up the international tribunal to try suspects in former Premier Rafik Hariri's murder.

According to L’Orient-LeJour (April 22, 2008), this was the THIRD breaking-in of Riachi’s home. His Jounieh apartment was also broken into, but only once.

"Apparent" attempt my foot! OF COURSE it is an attempt to intimidate Judge Riachi (and others) involved in the sensitive Hariri case.

[Justice Minister] Rizk urged UN chief Ban Ki-moon to speed up the appointment of Canadian Judge Daniel Bellemare as prosecutor general on the tribunal in a bid to protect the Lebanese judges by exempting them from their current duties.

Excuse me? Protect our judges by “exempting” them from duties? Of course the international tribunal should be sped up and pressure relieved on Lebanese under threat. But I have news for Charles Rizk, the pressure is never going away until the state wakes up and takes RADICAL action (reappointments, firings of moles and saboteurs, martial law or emergency powers, all that until these threats stop).

Rizk argued that delaying the appointment was putting the lives of Riachi and other Lebanese judges at risk. "What are we waiting for? Does a Lebanese judge have to get killed before Bellemare takes full charge of the case?" Rizk asked.

Indeed you fool! The UN should move but what are YOU and PM Saniora waiting for? MP Walid Eido who was involved with the tribunal's by-laws was killed along with 10 other people. The top Hariri investigator, ISF Capt. Wissam Eid, was killed along with his bodyguard. And on and on and on. You can be sure that lowly employees handling files and evidence are constantly bribed and/or threatened and we never hear about it.

The UN moves like a snail and is not personally threatened like your very own government. What’s your excuse Mr. Minister?

Why aren’t Riachi and his homes and his family PROTECTED 24/7? Does posting two guards in front of his home require a presidential election, parliamentary dialogue, and a solution to regional tensions?

And why isn’t this front-page news, as well as front-page editorial DEMANDS for answers? Too pedestrian for our editorial writers busy, way over their tiny heads, with high-flying international politics?

Aoun’s FPM: Like Nation, Like Party

2008-04-17T07:55:00.003-04:00

Yet again, a party/movement once touted as the party of change and difference has caught all the diseases of the Lebanese nation.

Now Lebanon has a good long piece on internal tensions inside Michel Aoun's FPM (Free Patriotic Movement). You say “goodie, good, good”, someone must be coming to his senses over at FPM. Unfortunately, upon reading the whole thing we find that the problems are:

-Fights for power, where Michel Aoun wants his son-in-law in charge (Gibran Bassil).

-Fights over who controls party money, apparently a lot of it.

-Postponement of internal party elections from May to October of this year.

Gee! Personal fights, nepotism, money business and inability to hold elections. Where have we seen this before?

I’m sure some larger policy disagreements loom inside the party, but they are apparently less prominent than the petty stuff.

I am also not so naive as to believe that this stuff is not part of politics everywhere. But really, nothing, zippo, about policy issues?

Yallah, the state can’t hold elections. The political parties can’t hold elections. At least the engineers elected someone somewhere last week, and there was politics involved. For what? I don’t know.

Oh well, Lebanon: same old, same old. Plus ca change...

It’s Simple Really

2008-03-26T01:05:00.003-04:00

But you have to have a modicum of will. Remember this from my previous post?

11:30 Berri's interview ends amid heavy gunfire (Monday March 24, Naharnet)

It turns out that stray bullets hit three people in the aftermath. Two were hit in the Cite Sportive area and one woman in Achrafieh was more seriously injured and almost died according to L’Orient-LeJour (link good one day). Now Lebanon also has the story.

Sonia Saade (or Eid according to Now Lebanon), a 50-year old woman, had her lung; liver, diaphragm and a membrane near the heart perforated by one bullet and had to be operated on immediately. She is in critical condition.

Here are the reaction as quoted in L’Orient. [The criminal thugs were Berri's this time, but recently Nasrallah’s and Hariri’s were doing same), my translation:

The FL (Lebanese Forces) ask Berri to restrain his militiamen and demand that Berri apologize to “targeted” citizens and to victims.

After that, thankfully they ask the army and the police to arrest these people. That’s a first. The rest of the FL statement is a diatribe against Syria and its lackeys that weakens the simple argument that these firings in the air are criminal and intolerable. They need to be stopped yesterday, regardless of Syria’s involvement.

MP Boutros Harb asks politicians to restrain their partisans. He barely mentions that the practice is illegal.

Finally Ulama Hussein Fadlallah urges leaders to take their responsibilities and to ban these practices.

OK, so reactions are mostly focused on asking the head-thug to ban the practice with a couple of background call for the law to assert itself. These acts are already ILLEGAL and CRIMINAL. What do we care what the bosses of these animals think or do?

Notice the absence of any governmental voice.

Notice that these calls/pleas have gone out before and that the practice continues.

Simple questions:

Where are the government, police and army?

Where are the unanimous calls to arrest these thugs?

Where are the calls to STOP pleading with the leaders, who clearly can’t or won’t do anything?

Where are the clear and unanimous editorials in the press?

Deploring is fine but how about pressure on ACTUAL SPECIFIC people in the government and police to ACT on a matter that has to be totally BIPARTISAN and needs no further discussion?

PS Of course, there was also this video of one of the animals, a few days back.

"Live" from Beirut: Idiot Press on Idiot Berri

2008-03-23T19:48:00.014-04:00

Speaker Nabih Berri gives an interview (to ?), and says absolutely nothing. But, hey, the interview coverage is “live” (?). Have we run out of watch-the-paint-dry episodes? Have we exhausted all paint colors?

[NOTE: The "live" format of the story is not on the Naharnet home page anymore. The interview is now a regular story, which I linked above. The story is somewhat different from the original headings listed here below. These, as quoted below, were up on March 23, 2008]

Next, the geniuses at Naharnet time-stamp the inane, useless, heard-10-times-before idiocies uttered by, one-time Speaker, current clownster Isteeez Nabih Berri.

We get:

11:18 Berri accused the majority of blocking the agreement on the three tens formula and said he was ready to secure the quorom [sic] and elect a president if the majority accepted this formula but they rejected it

This story died 2 or three times about a month ago. Yeah, Berri said it at 11:18 and it’s “live” baby! More like your coverage Naharnet is dead, and your reporter and Nabih Berri are both brain frigging dead.

Now to uphold the Lebanese tradition of not making sense, and of regressing, the interview clock runs in reverse. So:

11:15 Berri said he would call for relaunching the dialogue over the elections' law after the Arab Summit

Tozzz! I call for dialogue now and I’ll gladly bet Berri’s vast ill-gotten fortune that said dialogue will yield absolutely NOTHING tangible or applicable (and hypocrite Berri knows it).

11:14The Majority and the opposition agreed on the three tens formula concerning the cabinet formation, Berri affirmed

This contradicts what Berri said at 11:18 but who cares? Certainly not the interviewer, and in politics 4 minutes is an eternity.

11:11 I will hold direct contacts with KSA, Syria and Egypt after the Arab Summit which is not sacred and can be abandoned if it proved to be a failure, Berri revealed

The Arab summit is NOT sacred? Good to know, I guess only Bashar and the Baath are sacred. And you actually mean we can abandon the summit if it’s a failure? Thank God for that, because you Nabih are a failure and we can’t abandon you, it seems. And so is the Moussa-Arab League initiative and we can’t abandon that either.

11:09 Berri said he won't propose a new solution or initiative after the Arab Summit

Thanks Nabih. I really, really, mean it. Please don’t propose ANYTHING anymore, you and the rest of the cretinous political class.

11:05 Syrians and Saudis have a certain influence in Lebanon and they can help solve the current political crisis, Berri said

Again, DON'T do it. And could we, at some point, ask the simple questions:

How is it that we need to talk to all these foreign countries to solve internal matters Mr. Speaker? And by what mysterious mechanism do the wishes of foreign countries affect the decisions of MPs in your joke of a parliament?

10:51 U.N official Terje Rod [sic] Larson works towards holding an international conference over the implementation of SCR 1559 which leads to Lebanon's destruction

It’s all relative Nabih. If 1559 leads to the destruction of YOUR sick concept of Lebanon, then I’m all for it.

10:44 Israel is preparing itself through military maneuvers to avenge its defeat in 2006 war, Berri added

Stop the presses; again, thank God the coverage is “live".

10:41 The real perpetrators of the assassination of Army General Francois el-Hajj are known, Berri said

Just like that. Am I the only one here sensing some kind of follow-up question? What the $%%6$3##3 hell is the job of our moronic press corps?

10:40 Berri confirmed war would not erupt in Lebanon

Something lost in translation here. “Confirmed”? Berri who can’t do his simple job of holding an election with only 128 people is now “confirming” future regional developments?

And if you know there will be no war, why are you yelling and screaming, daily, about M14/US/Israel prepping for war? And why is your master-puppeteer Bashar massing troops on his border with Lebanon?

__________________________________________________

UPDATE:

11:30 Berri's interview ends amid heavy gunfire

11:27 Berri says this TV interview would be his last to avoid the heavy gunfire which takes place always before and after his televised interviews

Thank you shooters. Maybe, now, the son of a thousand bitches will keep his trap shut for a little while.

Gov that Wouldn't: The VIDEO

2008-03-13T09:12:00.005-04:00

Re my "Gvmnt that could't/would'nt" post, I want to thank Blacksmith Jade for linking to me, and for posting the video of the (presumed Amal/Berri) creep shooting his RPG in the middle of the street.

In my post on the subject I assumed, probably rashly, that my readers had seen the video and knew that my line about "being on youtube" was real and not a joke. (In Lebanon, the line between reality and jokes disappeared a long time ago).

I am also not very adept at linking vids and the like. Anyway, Blacksmiths have the video link, and we can fairly presume that the guy is still loose while the army, the police, and the judiciary are all asleep at the switch.

All the while, our stupid press is focused on the irrelevant: Arab summit, 1960 law, who replaces Suleiman as army cheief when he's elected? (I can't even believe this last one).

Correct me if I am wrong, but is there any ONE newspaper, or TV station that put up this thug's picture and editorialized like the Blacksmiths: "Arrest that man!"?

“Very Important Doc”, More Hot Air

2008-03-09T18:50:00.010-04:00

Lebanon keeps stretching the laws of modern physics. Just when you thought our political gasbags had run out of hot air, there’s more.

“Very Important Document” by March 14. (Naharnet)

Wow! Not just “important” but “very”, I can’t wait. M14, amorphous leaderless and rudderless blob of inertia and inaction, our “nation turns its lonely eyes to you”, wuwuwu, koo koo ka choo Mrs. Robinson…

The pro-government March 14 coalition was expected to announce a "very important political document"

You mean more important than the ignored Taef/Taif constitution? Or more important than the already-dead-before-arrival electoral law exquisitely crafted by ignored statesman Fuad Boutros and other useless intellectuals and luminaries?

Aren’t such “documents” usually put out by opposition forces in order to explain how they would govern, should they come to power? And not by governmental majorities supposed to use the levers of state?

Napoleon once said to his dithering generals: “If you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna”. The Saniora/Siniora-M14 version is: Never set out to take Vienna, but if you do, blabber, blabber, blabber some more, write a document way late in the game, and give an interview to a Saudi newspaper.

The document in question will:

lay out the alliance's strategy at all levels.

Great, it’s good they’re thinking “strategy” finally, but pray tell why would M14 be able to IMPLEMENT any baloney in said document when it has allowed itself to be paralyzed “at all levels” for over 2 years now?

Press reports Sunday said March 14 will lay out Lebanon's position on a range of internal, regional and international issues, particularly on Christian-Muslim coexistence.

Now my idiot Lebanese representatives are going to have an opinion on regional and international issues? Memo to M14 and M8 and Patriarch Sfeir: regional and international actors have been running your politics and your private lives with nary a peep from any of you failures.

In other words, NO ONE listens to you on internal matters. Now you will express your opinions on regional and international matters? No one cares, though I am guessing that M14 will reiterate their proud support for the “sacred” frigging cause that’s destroyed the country and is the rationalization for Hezbollah’s weapons. M14 will also likely argue that "we" want good relations with all, even with those killing us.

And of course everyone’s favorite part has got to be the “Christian-Muslim coexistence” bit. Let’s take a wild guess. Might the very-important-but-ridiculous document come out in favor of brotherly co-existence? Might “coexistence” be the essence of Lebanon, and might our stupid, very stupid, country be held as a beacon and an example for the rest on the world? The suspense is killing me.

Last question: what the hell can M14 possibly say about religious coexistence that has not been said in the previous 568 such documents put out over the years by bishops, sheiks, shamans, gurus and every other half-wit journalist and pseudo-thinker?

Putting out documents and setting up commissions is what the lame do when they can’t, or won’t, ACT (see previous post).

Yeah, I know the "document" is not out yet but if there is anything new, or of substance in it, i.e. a hint of ACTION, I'll defrost the old humble pie and eat it.

The Little Government That Couldn’t or Wouldn’t

2008-03-03T07:39:00.008-05:00

While we wait for a government, any government, who would defend the nation, uphold the law, uncover murderers, prosecute treason, and protect the citizen, here is the latest (Naharnet):

Citizens Urged to Refrain from Opening Fire to Celebrate Politicians' TV Appearances

Who is saying this? The INTERIOR MINISTRY said:

[T]he shooting "causes panic and inflicts casualties as well as damage to both public and private property."

OMG what’s next? A report from the Surgeon General of the Banana Republic stating that shooting bullets through your own head can be harmful?

I am surprised we are missing their usual stupid addendum that the practice is bad because it harms (yallah, all together now): the Palestinian and Arab cause and only helps Israel.

Saying that firing guns and RPGs is against the law and “we will throw your sorry ass in jail” is, I guess, not an option. Hey, your vid will be on youtube and no one will bother you. [UPDATE: video there]

We are the land of peace-and-love where

The ministry called on politicians to "cooperate" in this respect by asking their supporters to abstain from opening fire.

Will you please, pretty please with sugar on top, abide by the law? Is it any wonder no one has any respect for the state and it laws?

This is a natural place to start to assert the authority of the law. Who in his right mind would object to cracking down on these thugs (or football fans firing guns)? And yet Saniora and his government are busy boycotting the Paris book fair (where Israel is being honored) and summoning the US attaché to ask deep questions like: what is the 6th fleet doing in the Mediterranean?

Bravo ya 7mar!

Watch Out: Lebanese Army Warns…

2008-02-03T13:23:00.002-05:00

Shooting at Army: NOT GOOD. Whoaaa!!! And you haven’t yet heard why shooting at the army is a bad idea.

In the land of the sub-idiot, everything, no matter how simple and straightforward has to be explained and analyzed for the sophisticate-morons. The latter make up 98.2% of the population and 102% of public officials. Furthermore, analysis is then followed by; you guessed it, NOTHING.

It’s never ever enough to APPLY the law. I.e. “beat your school friends in a Faraya chalet and go to jail” or “rob a billion dollars from depositors at the Medina bank and STAY in jail” or “threaten the useless PM’s life and have the authorities charge you with something, anything” are all “passe” notions for the post-modern mind of my donkey compatriots, dis-informed and mis-informed by an even “donkeyer” press corps.

The Army Command on Saturday cautioned that attacks targeting soldiers in Beirut and its suburbs deal a blow to security and stability and serve interests of the Israeli enemy.

Who would have thunk it? Shooting at the army is bad for stability and security. Thank God the top officers go to all sorts of fancy training programs in the US, France and Syria. Let’s face it, where else would one gain this kind of acumen?

The army communique went on:

[...]that attacking the army "directly confuses the investigation carried out by the military and judiciary … to reach the truth"

So the army is investigating attacks on itself, but these attacks are also confusing to the investigators who are investigating them??? Are you confused too?

Now the Israel-baloney part is a bit trickier to interpret. Why is it there when, really, no sane person can believe that there is a connection?

Hmmm…possible explanations:

--Some of the over-trained under-brained at Army Command think this is a propaganda coup that will, immediately and overnight, shift 90% of Hezbo’s support away from the party and towards the Army.

--It is yet another sign of the demented Arabist culture of the past century. You know, the one dying everywhere except in Lebanon where it’s going to get us all killed. The one that says “I can’t decide if x is good or bad, or if I should eat “foul” for breakfast,” until I have figured its place in the big Israeli-Zionist-I-am-a-blithering-idiot context.

--Army command is getting ready to take action (that will never come). However before any non-action can be not-taken, it has to be labeled “anti-Israel”, otherwise it can’t be politically justified. Nevertheless, even after we deem our action-to-be anti-Israel, we won’t take any action because it is too risky. The country may go to hell. Or, God forbid, we may experience “instability”. Still, if you shoot at us (army), we won’t fire back at you until we have analyzed it to death and decided that your attempts to kill us (army) serve the Israeli interest. (Charles Darwin, where are you?)

On that last point, officers who take defensive action may find themselves ARRESTED. After the army tangled with demonstrators in Shiyah last week, people died. And, because some dead were Hezbo and some were Amal there had to be an investigation. The problem is that Hezbo and Amal want an “impartial and balanced” investigation (i.e. you can’t say it was our fault). The other problem is that army chief Suleiman wants to be president and thus needs to be nice to Amal-Hezbo (i.e. he needs to split the difference).

Result? Some neighborhood people were arrested. Some army troops and officers were arrested. Everyone’s happy. The instigators however are still at large, as the investigation is “seeking” their identity and their arrest. As usual, the criminal instigators are never known and never caught in a country where everybody knows everybody.

Don't get me wrong, there should be an investigation but what we got is too easy and too predictable.

Meanwhile, the army command guys may be onto something because the Nahar paper headlines on Sunday:

[Useless PM] Seniora, Amal and Army say: Attacks on Army Positions Are Suspect.

I am so glad I read the newspapers and that we seem to have a semi-consensus on something. Next they’ll all agree that water is wet, and we’ll be on our way to a brotherly solution for the country (well, once Hezbo and Aoun agree). I am all teary-eyed.

Clown of 2008: Surete Generale

2008-01-02T10:19:00.000-05:00

Yeah I know, it’s a wee early in the year, but I think you’ll agree that the results are already in. It will be very tough to beat the Surete Generale (SG) and its head: General Wafik Jezzini. (Movie buffs will remember that the Lebanese outfit is named after the French "General Sir-taay” of Chief Inspector Jacques Clouseau fame).

In the land of the many bombings/assassinations, all unresolved, what is the Surete Generale (loosely General Safety/Security) doing? It is raiding exclusive bar-club "Crystal" to harass the owner and hurt business by scaring and humiliating the crap out of its patrons and employees. Why you ask? Apparently cuz Daddy Wafik ’s party-son, Ali, could not get a table on one of the busiest nights of the year (Saturday Dec 29).

According to L’Orient-LeJour (Orient link good one day, Riemer Brouwer at Lebanon Update blogged it before the papers), the agents of the Surete showed up with machine guns, got everybody to kneel, verbally abused the crowd, and yelled racial epithets at the Sudanese staff, all supposedly in search of visa/work permit violations.

The SG (Surete Generale) issued a statement saying they were doing their job and that they were surprised their director Wafik/Wafic Jezzini was smeared in relation to the incident. Mazen el-Zein, co-owner of Crystal, says it all happened because they refused Ali Jezzini a table. If you are vaguely familiar with Lebanon and the concept of probability, you know that what happened was no coincidence.

Aside-One: L’Orient-LeJour posted this in its “Society” section. I guess they think this comes under "local mores" or is a high-society gossip item.

Aside-Two: In the news section, L’Orient-LeJour does report that an investigation will take place.

Aside-Three: SG director general’s name, Wafik Jezzini, never appears in the news when there are major security breaches in country. He’s never there to brief anyone, and he’s not ever called to account by anyone when MPs and Cabinet Ministers are regularly assassinated. I recall his name in the press in 2006, when he supposedly disobeyed orders from his superiors (PM Seniora and Interior Minister Fatfat), and now when his son is refused a table at some nightclub joint.

Aside-Four: Two SG officers were arrested and are under investigation, but not the top dog. We’ll see what happens. But I am guessing that either Wafik Jezzini ordered the raid and needs to go (besides the fact that there is no security in the country). Or, his son ordered the raid, and if Wafik lets his party-animal son order SG officers around he also needs to go.

Now given that Jezzini Sr. survived in his post afterdisobeying his superiors in 2006 over intelligence matters, I doubt that his head will roll on this one. Also, I am sure that Berri (Jezzini is a Berri man) would yell bloody murder and scream that his community was being singled out for God knows what.

I am however surprised this outrage made the newspapers and that someone got arrested. Keep your fingers crossed.

2007 Limbo Champ: Nabih Berri

2007-12-31T09:43:00.000-05:00

Don’t matter how crowded the field gets. Don’t matter how low the others can get. Nabih Berri/Berry is the lowest of the low.

Lebanon has been without a president for over month. The “agreed-upon” candidate, General Michel Suleiman/Sleiman, can’t be elected without a constitutional amendment because Article 49 of the constitution precludes the election of grade-one government official.

While the local useless idiots are squabbling over amending the constitution, Speaker and Constitution-Abuser-in-Chief Nabih Berri thinks that General Suleiman can be elected WITHOUT an amendment. Why and how you ask?

Berri last week said there was no longer a need for a constitutional amendment to allow grade one civil servants - such as Army Commander General Michel Suleiman - to be elected to the presidency. Article 74 reads as follow: "Should the Presidency become vacant through the death or resignation of the President or for any other cause, the Chamber meets immediately and by virtue of the law to elect a successor [….]”

To you and me, that means the Chamber ought to meet IMMEDIATELY (5 weeks ago) and ought to STAY in session until a prez is elected.

We have now had 11 postponements with not a single attempt to elect. So in Berri's unprincipled sub-par mind, article 74 that says that in case of vacancy the chamber meets immediately to elect a new prez implies “you can elect anyone” (at a time of Berri's choosing).

Among other things, article 49 says you have to be a Lebanese citizen, of age etc and NOT a grade-one employee to be elected (BTW, the Web site of the Constitutional Council is still "DOWN").

By Berri’s logic, because there’s a vacancy, all of Article 49 and its requirements are out the window. The chamber could now lawfully elect a 12-year old Tibetan to the presidency of Lebanon. Maybe when Tibetan monks identify the new incarnation of the Panshen Lama we could ask him to double as head of our useless state. I have the utmost confidence he’ll do better than 90% of our past presidents, and he’ll certainly be more honest than all my compatriots (no offense).

Let me add that I don’t begrudge Berri anymore when an item as ridiculous as the above appears only in the back pages of a couple of papers, instead of being a major career busting scandal.

Sorry Lebanese, but we deserve this crap and the crappy press that under-reports such.

Speaking of the press: how about a major paper/channel featuring 2 or 3 constitutional experts regularly, on the on-goings of the election? Maybe people would be better informed and maybe some politicians and some religious figures would be shamed into semi-sanity.

Instead, the Daily Star, bishops and sheiks are back asking our unconscionable political class to do the right thing. Bwahahhhahhhhhaaaa!

As to Nabih Berri, limbo is a dance but it is also the “edge of hell”. Here’s’ my wish for the New Year and may God forgive me: I wish Nabih would make it from the edge of hell to the actual real thing, the one whence there's no escape for the rest of eternity.

Happy New Year Everyone!

MPs Gone Wild

2007-12-19T01:08:00.000-05:00

When Lebanese politicians speak, no one listens and it usually is one of three things:

-90% of the time it’s predictable and useless, typically it boils down to “it’s my opponents’ fault” or its variant “it’s the foreign meddlers’ fault”.

-6.2% of the time it’s about something useless because it is “secret”. They speak of, or threaten with, secret lists (recently Sfeir), or secret plans (now M14 and Abou Faour), or secret negotiations and documents (now Aoun). This would be farcical were it not readily swallowed whole by the politically dormant populace and by a comatose press.

The height of hilarity comes when a Lebanese pol threatens to unveil a “secret” if things don’t go right. Things never go right and no culprit is ever uncovered. French President Sarkozy seems to have caught the disease. He said a couple of days ago: elect a prez now or else France will name the obstructionists. Still waiting.

-The remaining 3.8% of the time, our despised politicians’ utterances are still useless (batting a hundred in that department) but now it’s because they make no sense whatsoever.

Here are two recent examples, one from each political camp, M8 and M14.

Aounist and Hezbo (M8) “partner” MP Ibrahim Kenaan:

[…]if legislators failed to reach consensus on a presidential candidate "we can still vote in parliament" irrespective of who wins or loses.
[...]
"At that point we could reach agreement and that would be great, and if we did not achieve an agreement lets go to parliament, and we might win or lose at parliament," he added.
[...]
"We are saying that we could, or could not, reach an agreement. If we did not reach an agreement we go to elections," Kenaan explained.

You, Kenaan, and your allies refuse to show up to elect. Your absence causes a (supposed) lack of quorum and the election has been stalled for months now, causing a political vacuum. Excuse me but are you still in Aoun’s party or have you switched sides overnight and forgot to tell us?

And if you speak for your party, then what was holding up the election before candidate Suleiman came to the fore?

What am I missing here guys?

From the M14 side, we get MP and uninspired aspirant prez Boutros Harb:

MP Butros Harb cautioned against a scheme to strip the presidency of its powers and partition Lebanon in order to naturalize Palestinian refugees.

Harb, in an interview with Naharnet, said the "issue is not that of amending the constitution or who is president. This is a mere phase in a scheme to partition Lebanon in order to enforce the naturalization of Palestinians in the future."

If you read the whole thing, Harb says that the state and the presidency are being weakened by the current stalemate. Fair enough, but nothing earth shattering there. Harb goes on to say (diplomatically) that the French screwed up. Interesting, but more details would be nice.

What does not make sense to me is the “Palestinian naturalization/implantation” statement above that, as usual, is left unexplained. No details, no elaboration.

Is Boutros Harb accusing Hezbollah and Aoun of favoring Palestinian naturalization? I don’t believe it and neither does Harb. Is it Syria? Syria has no interest in any kind of long-term solution and favors keeping the Palestinians in Lebanon as destitute and angry tools. Can’t be Syria.

That accusation used to be normally hurled by Lahoud and Hezbo AT M14 and at Saad Hariri in particular. Is Harb accusing his own ally here?

Or is Harb accusing the US and France of saying they want a strong state in Lebanon while working behind the scenes to destroy it?

What the hell is this presidential contender talking about? WHO is working toward that implantation? Israel? Then Israel is playing its own friends the US and France for fools?

I really don’t get. What are these people talking about?

Anyone with a clue, please enlighten me. I mean it.

Suleiman to be Elected Today?

2007-12-17T12:02:00.000-05:00

A couple of newspapers in Beirut are speculating that General Michel Suleiman/Sleiman will be elected president when parliament convenes for its ninth attempt to elect today.

The impediment to his election, a complicated but needed constitutional amendment**, has apparently vanished into thin air, as has the constitution of the republic.

According to An-Nahar, parliament will meet to interpret the constitution (Arabic) and then elect (English link, Naharnet). The “clever” interpretation would say: the law is there to guarantee continuity and prevent a vacuum. Since a vacuum has already occurred, the law does not serve its purpose anymore and therefore can be, and should be, suspended/ignored in order to solve the current (vacuum) crisis.

I think the vacuum between our parliamentarians’ two ears is more dangerous than the power vacuum in Baabda.

L’Orient-LeJour ascribes to MPs an even “cuter” constitutional interpretation (French, link good one day) to trash the supreme law: “force majeure” and precedent. Sit down and hold on tight to your pants.

In 2002 upon the death of (anti Syrian) MP Albert Moukheiber, daughter of (pro Syrian) Minister and MP Michel Murr was allowed to run for the seat, even though election laws should have prevented her from running because she was the head of a municipal council (Metn).

“Force majeure”, a concept from contract law that applies to catastrophes and "acts of God", was cited to circumvent electoral laws. What was the extraordinary event that meant the law could not be applied: the death of MP Moukheiber who, by now, must be spinning in his grave at the speed of light. I guess, in Lebanon, no one could have predicted that the death of an MP could lead to a partial election (gasp), though it's all in the constitution.

Was it that Myrna Murr’s candidacy was necessary to the republic’s survival? Or was it the fact that her Daddy was a major power broker and a Syrian ally and bully that led to “creative”, not to say "fraudulent", interpretation of the law? You decide.

There you have it. A "precedent": the law was broken before and therefore can be broken again. Electoral law or constitutional law, does not matter. Of course back then, (Syrian pocketed) constitutional council or not, who was going to argue with Syria and its allies?

Whether the above will come to pass or not, I admire the energy that goes into all this baloney when it really would be a lot easier to pass one last and terminal amendment, or two, to that lousy document called a “constitution”:

Article Last: This here Lebanese constitution is but a cruel joke and was never meant to be followed.

Article After-Last (why not?): The cedar on the national flag is hereby banned and shall be replaced by a banana.

UPDATE: Election postponed for the ninth time until December 22.
__________________________________________________

**For those unfamiliar with the situation, General Suleiman, as a grade-one high level official, is not eligible to become prez until 2 years after leaving his current position. Amending the law requires initiation by the Seniora/Saniora government that the opposition deems illegal. Lebanon has been without a president since November 24.

Simple Idea for the Simple Minded

2007-12-13T20:50:00.000-05:00

Two days ago, another major figure/official in Lebanon, General Francois el-Hajj was killed by a massive car bomb. Of course it’s a major security blow to the country. The man was Army Chief Michel Sleiman/Suleiman’s right hand man. Hajj’s bodyguard, Khairallah Hadwan also died, as did a third unidentified person.

The car bomb method has claimed many lives in the past two years. Every time, the pattern is the same: powerful bomb, prominent figure assassinated, several passers-by die. The government and MPs and foreign governments, all condemn. Another file is added to the Hariri file at the UN. The majority M14 accuses Syria. The opposition M8 accuses Israel. No one is ever caught and no deterrent is put in place.

Of course asking for martial law or a state of emergency is too much for the hapless government of Milquefuck Seniora/Sanioura. Maybe a nuclear attack wiping off the country would sway this stupid government. Then again, maybe not. Since 2005 only one ex-PM was killed, 4 sitting MPs, 2 major journalists and now one Army general. There was also the little matter of the July 2006 war, and a major attack by Islamists on the Lebanese army (LAF) in 2007.

Asking for special or expanded powers to search for weapons, explosives and political assassins is still not high up on the government’s priority list. A few months back, the government was busy screwing up; moving the Easter Holiday from Monday to Good Friday and then back to Monday, a real major issue in a country where there is hardly an economy anymore.

After your now routine car-bomb and routine condemnations, the other very familiar story: people arrested in connection with the exploded car, people claim they sold the car to unknown, people released, end of story and end of investigative track.

In this latest instance, the same fascinating story. Investigators talk to 3 men (from Taamir, near Ein el-Helweh) who owned the car. They say they sold the car to a fourth man. Daily Star story:

The fourth man was also detained and questioned and claimed to have sold the vehicle, a 30-year-old, olive green, BMW 320, to two unidentified men just two days before the attack. The fourth owner of the vehicle said he did not know the names of the two buyers, as they paid him in cash, took the car and left promising to contact him in order to complete registration procedures, but never did.

It’s getting to be boring by now, in each car-bomb murder the sales chain ends with a guy who sold it to “unknown” for cash.

Idiot Saniora and idiot Sabeh and all the other incompetent criminal frigging sub-idiots, how about making it ILLEGAL to sell to “unknown", like after the 4th or 5th or 6th car-bomb. We are now at number 12 or 14 depending on how you count.

How difficult is it to pass a law that puts the (or some) responsibility of these crimes on the last KNOWN idiot in the chain of sales. You are selling your car? By law, you will need to know the name of the buyer and ID him/her. Make a lapse punishable by 10 years in jail or even by a death sentence for all I care. Of course this would have to be massively advertised.

Can we tighten this part of the law or does that also have to involve France, Germany, Syria and Botswana you Goddamn nincompoops?

Holiday Cheer in South: Thank the U.A.E.

2007-12-10T20:52:00.001-05:00

While our local politicians are mining the political and constitutional landscape, 84 villages and 8 million acres of land are now free of mines and of cluster bombs thanks to the efforts and funds of the government of the UAE (United Arab Emirates).

The Bint Jbeil municipalities and other local authorities in the area thanked, and rightly so, “UAE President H.H Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan for his generous grant to Lebanon.”

At the risk of sounding like your typical hypocritical Lebanese sycophant, I too thank Sheikh Khalifah and his countrymen. Some “brothers’ send us bombs and terrorists. Others send us sappers and deminers. Which ones are more popular and have more influence in Lebanon? Go figure.

That is not to say that I would ever venture anywhere in the South outside of a concrete or asphalted downtown, nor would I recommend it to anyone other than Hassan Nasrallah. God protect the southerners and their families, and those who have to work those fields, even demined. I am sure there is much, much, more to clean up, and I for one will never ever feel safe in any southern meadow.

I wonder: how many Lebanese will be dancing in the streets with the picture of the good Sheikh? As opposed to those dancing with a pic of Bashar or Hassan Nasrallah.

Fun With Election Day

2007-11-29T15:22:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow’s attempt to gather the MPs and get a president elected for Lebanon will be attempt number five (or six?). There’s little, if any, smell of agreement or “consensus” in the air.

Also any iffy agreement on General Michel Suleiman/Sleiman will require an amendment to the constitution. Unfortunately, with the Syrian goons gone, gone are also the good old days of amending the constitution in about fifteen minutes and by a mere show of hands.

Reading what passes for news: Presidential Election Postponed till December 7

"There will probably be no election tomorrow," MP Butros Harb, a leading Christian figure of the ruling majority, told AFP.

MP Ali Hassan Khalil also said a postponement of the Friday voting session is "probable."

The mind boggles. [The above statements were made hours before the postponement.] These two are MPs, slated to vote, one hopes before kingdom come, on a new prez. They both are in Beirut, and one of them is a leading candidate.

How is it that yours truly, a mere reader of news, a world away from the action and totally uninvolved in the electoral process, knows more than these MPs do? Fellows go home, there will be NO election tomorrow Friday Nov 30, I GUARANTEE it. (Damn I am good, as I write this, E-Day postponed to December 7, and the Naharnet story was edited)

Another MP, Aoun, no, not super-crazy Michel Aoun, but Selim Aoun who belongs to the wacko’s bloc in parliament:

Aoun said that, "in any case, reaching an agreement over the army commander does not resolve the crisis because there are still many lingering issues, including the formation of the next government, the amendment of the electoral law and the arms of Hizbullah," the anti-Israeli group spearheading the opposition.

Translation: when you cannot solve a very complicated problem, don’t focus on it alone. Try to solve it simultaneously and contemporaneously with ten other equally intractable problems. It’s the Lebanese way.

Now if you want to talk constitutional amendment you got to go to the oracle of Ain el Tineh. Here is Speaker of the House Nabih Berri, open to the idea of amendment:

Berri explained that there were four ways to amend the constitution.

Thanks Nabih, I know. You can’t find the one way to FOLLOW the constitution but you have FOUR ways to change it. My favorite is number three, the one where you drop the constitution down the toilet, flush, and then wait to see what comes out on the other side.

More seriously, none of these ways may be CONSTITUTIONAL. One involves the prez. With no prez, that’s out. One involves the government which Berri and friends deem ILLEGAL. ALL ways involve the parliament. However the constitution says: with no prez, parliament can do NOTHING before proceeding to the election. We’ll see.

And in a repeat of the great canard of 2007 Berri added:

"…I'm staying in the waiting room until they (feuding camps) come to an agreement;

See, the horse’s arse still likes to believe that he is a neutral arbiter, having espoused 220% of the agenda of the Hezbo/Aoun side.

In other earth shattering news, Brother-Emir-Ambassador Abdul Aziz Khoja

If consensus was [sic] reached on Gen. Suleiman, the [Saudi] kingdom would support this issue.

If a “consensus” were reached to make a donkey prez of Lebanon, who could argue with that? Surely not a Saudi. (And trust me it’s happened before, not the consensus part, the donkey part).

Stay tuned for further developments regarding Groundhog Day, err I mean Election Day 2007 (2008?)

General Michel Suleiman: A Repost

2007-11-29T00:42:00.000-05:00

With rumors and talk that some in M14 are now amenable to a constitutional amendment and to a Suleiman presidency, here's a reprint of my August 15, 2007 post on Michel Suleiman (or Sleiman, scroll down on page).

The new twist now is: how can you even get a constitutional change through the Chamber when the law says the Chamber can't do ANYTHING before it elects a president?"

Here's the old article:

Prez Michel Suleiman: And So It Begins

Deus ex machina.

After years of crisis and tension: the embassies do some voodoo, the Maronite Patriarch meets Army Chief General Suleiman, Suleiman makes a “bold” statement. Voila.

While poor Gen. Paul Fares (?) and hapless personality-challenged MPs Robert Ghanem and Boutros Harb etc are dusting up their resumes to run for president of Lebanon, the choice has been made for us and them, or so it seems.

The powers-that-be have decided General Michel Suleiman/Sleiman will be the next president of Lebanon. OK Lebanese, the goose is cooked. The Maronite Patriarch seems to have made another huge blunder but who’s counting. Most Lebanese will grumble while the rest will say those dangerous words: “this time, it’s different” (from Lahoud and Aoun).

General Suleiman the man who, weeks ago, scared us by saying he would resign his post in case of vacancy at the head of the state, now says he was misquoted and that of course he would see the nation through the storm.

This blogger is not necessarily anti-Suleiman though Suleiman’s Syrian-sponsored appointment as army chief years ago is a huge question mark, as is the fact that his sister lives in Damascus. I’ll try to return to the man when we know more. For now, the process, the need to change the constitution, the Aoun/Lahoud precedents all add to mounting concerns.

From the Daily Star:

Army Commander General Michel Suleiman has indicated he would accept to head a transitional government in the event MPs are unable to choose the next president before the end of President Emile Lahoud's term in office in November, provided all sides accept his nomination.

And

"Is it reasonable for me to abandon this ship while it is being lashed by high waves from all sides?" Suleiman asked, adding: "At any rate I am a public employee and I am subject to the Constitution..."

So far so good, that’s much better than his recent threat to bail out in case of a constitutional crisis.

What’s “less good” is when he says:

…he would remain at the head of the armed forces until a new president is elected and a new government is formed and he is satisfied with the security situation in the country.

No, when a new president is elected and a new government formed, they can fire you, General Suleiman, whenever they want.

What is far worse is that the apparent originator of the “idea” is ex-MP and ex-Minister Albert Mansour who, when the Syrians were under pressure to leave Lebanon in 2005, said: we would rather lose with Syria than win with Israel and the US.

So today Albert Mansour says:

"Such a [transitional and Maronite led] government would be in keeping with established practice, which is for a president to hand over power to a Maronite prime minister, it happened twice before,**"

What hypocrite Mansour forgets to tell you is that he fought the legal government of Aoun in the 1980’s as defense minister in the rival Hoss government. He was the defense minister when Syrian soldiers deposed Aoun.

And, since in Lebanon everyone is free to read one’s fantasies in the constitution:

Mansour said being appointed prime minister of a transitional government would allow Suleiman to bypass constitutional requirements that prevent grade-one civil servants like Suleiman from being elected to the presidency while still in their post or within two years of their resignation.

The law says that the army chief has to have been out of his job for TWO years before he can be elected president. Making him PM for a few days does not change anything, unless Mansour has in mind TWO years-plus of PM Suleiman. The Sunni community will be elated to hear that.

Furthermore you have to wonder why is Mansour talking about that? Why not amend the law and elect Suleiman now? Why can’t we have an election within the legal time frame (prior to November 13, 2007)? Is there a reason the MPs cannot meet and do their duty?

The answer is: yes. It seems that 1/3 or more MPs are unwilling to do their job. But in Lebanon, no one wants to talk about that. They don’t want to do their job? We'll just break the country some more, and destroy the (bad) constitution a little further. Bur never ever ask why our MPs, supposed guardians of the nation, are the worst possible law-breakers and duty-shirkers.

Further in the article:

Suleiman hoped political leaders in the country would go back to applying the "spirit and text" of the Taef/Taif Accord…

OK, General Suleiman, I hope you are a man of your word and I am keeping my fingers crossed. The “spirit and text” of Taef say you cannot be president in 2007.

________________________________________________________________

** Fuad Chehab and Michel Aoun in the 50’s and 80’s.respectively.

Saniora: Straitjacket Time

2007-11-23T01:05:00.000-05:00

From the The Daily Star, National Dependence Day 2007, our very own PM:

Siniora assures Lebanese security under control

Premier Fouad Siniora [Sanioura] said Wednesday in a speech to mark Lebanon's Independence Day that "the Lebanese can [be assured] that their national and daily security is being safeguarded, and their institutions are functioning well."

With a deadlocked presidential election and hours to go, with parliament shut down for over a year, and with empty benches on the supreme court, and with people worried sick about their future, our "institutions are functioning well"?

Is there a word for this manure other than: "$*^!$% STRAITJACKET?"

Fawzi Salloukh Party Animal

2007-11-20T01:23:00.000-05:00

With 3 days to Armageddon (the prez election), foreign envoys and embassies and the UN and the Arab League are all very busy trying to solve Lebanon’s problems.

The top Lebanese official supposed to deal with all these people, in the name of the country and in the name of the government, Lebanon’s very own near-Minister of Foreign Affairs is also extremely busy. Fawzi Salloukh's busy schedule is even more impressive when you recall that he actually resigned, with five others, many months ago, thereby creating the crisis miring the country.

However, if you work in the government of Milquetoast Seniora/Sanioura, it’s even better than working under the Swedish welfare state. You can continue to collect your salary. And if you feel like it, you can show up at the office every couple of months to reverse government decisions and to appoint some of your friends to cushy do-nothing government jobs.

And best of all: PARTAY! Yay! Cake and eye-candy all around, and all in the name of the government you left and trashed months ago:

Thanks to the Daily Star photographer (Fawzi is usually in the first picture of each page):

Here’s Fawzi celebrating the Belgian king, another country threatened with splitting up but at least they have a king.

Fawzi at the Spanish embassy for national day. There national day means something. Fawzi is looking forward to our National Day November 22, in 2 days and 2 days before Traitor-in-chief Lahoud is gone for a smarter alternative, even if that alternative is to be an empty chair with four wooden legs.

Another "National Day" for Fawzi, South Korea this time. Maybe we could learn from their experience of splitting up.

Speaking of splits, here's Fawzi at the Czech Embassy, they used to be with Slovakia. Both are much happier now. I wonder which Lebanon will retain the November 22 national day.

Now here's Fawzi doing the Turkish's 84th birthday. Lebanon won't make it to that age thanks to people like Fawzi. And if Fawzi is anything like me, he's ruing the day the Ottomans packed their bags and left.

Chile: Oooops, no Salloukh there. Maybe he was sick that day, or at another embassy, or maybe the memory of a country successfully ridding itself of dictatorship was just too much for poor Fawzi.

Nigerian Independence. Country is a hell hole and Fawzi is in his usual spot, next to the cake.

Brazil, another basket case. Yep, Fawzi is there (first on the left in the first pic, though not named).

I am sure you can find Fawzi and Waldo at many more of these genuine fun events.

One last thing, Fawzi was not there for Germany's National Unity Day. That's a country that was divided and years later came back together. A tad too early for that. Good call there Fawzi, it's going to be a while.

Sfeir's List: Dead on Arrival

2007-11-15T06:48:00.000-05:00

Lebanon needs a new president by November 24, 10 days from now. The country is torn apart by an unprecedented constitutional crisis. The constitution stipulates that, without a president-elect with 10 days to go, parliament meets immediately and elects.

Who cares? We are 8 days from the last of Incompetent-Traitor-in-Chief Emile Lahoud and Speaker Berri has called for a Nov 21 election. And no one is even protesting the dangerous closeness of that date to a potential power vacuum.

After months of abusing/misinterpreting the constitution, of exhausting the Lebanese people with empty moves and rhetoric, the end is finally near. The solution? Peggy Sue Sfeir, prodded by class hunk Kouchner, is going to pass a note to Mary Lou Berri and to Mimsy Hariri during gym.

The note will have the names of all the cool dudes for president. Kouchner wanted only one name in order to bring the game to an end. But Peggy Sue Sfeir, that tease, wants 5 or 6 or even 9.

The idea is that then Mary Lou and Mimsy will pick the hunkiest 2 on the list and that the high school will elect one of them on November 21.

I don’t understand the point of the whole exercise. I mean Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has said all along: just elect someone, anyone. Now they all want Sfeir’s imprimatur on the choice. Kouchner told Sfeir that Berri would not call parliament if Sfeir did not produce names. So Sfeir, who according to reports does not want to pick the one guy, will give several names. Duh!

We all know that Aoun and Harb and Nassib Lahoud will be on the list, plus another few a la Demianos Qattar, Joseph Torbey etc…

It’s obvious that when Hariri and Berri get the list Harb, Nassib Lahoud and Aoun will be thrown out even before the coffee guy shows up. The other names are all acceptable to Sfeir. So what’s the point? That everyone can breathe that, whomever the president is, Sfeir approves, as do Berri and Hariri. They tortured the country for over 6 months for this?

OK, the Sfeir approval means some Christian cover. Hariri provides Sunni cover, but does Berri provide anything? Syrian cover? If he had Syrian cover we would not be here and he surely cannot provide Shia/Shiite cover without Hezbollah. I am not sure what is being solved by this charade.

Reading quickly in An-Nahar, I saw a glimmer of good news. The headline said Sfeir would insist on secrecy. Silly me, I thought he was referring to the secrecy of the ballot (another constitutional rule always trashed). That would have provided some pressure to uphold a very useful part of the law. But NOOOOO, I was quickly disappointed. Peggy Sue Sfeir wants the LIST of effing candidates to remain secret. Why? Another mystery. Hell, give or take a name, all of Lebanon already knows that stupid list.

With 8 days to Armageddon these people are still worried about the silliest of stuff. They are all hopeless. Go ahead your Eminence, keep the list secret, and the election date secret, and the name of the new president secret.

Finally, as I ready to post and less than 24 hours after the lousy new non-idea was floated, it would appear that it’s already dead.

Constitution: Do It to Me One More Time

2007-11-10T10:58:00.000-05:00

"Parliament speaker Nabih Berri has decided to postpone the session scheduled for next Monday to Wednesday November 21 at 10:30 am," a house statement said.

Berri trashes the constitution yet again. PM Seniora/Saniora has nothing to say. And Batrack Sfeir, who has uttered the words “lawful” and “constitutional” over a zillion time this past year, is going merrily along.

The constitution, article 73, clearly says if TEN days before the presidential term expires (Nov 24), the Chamber (MPs) has not convened to elect, the Chamber AUTOMATICALLY meets to proceed with the election. There is no need for the Chamber to be summoned by anyone, let alone the stupid piece of dog feces who presides over parliament.

Article 73 [Election of the President]
One month at least and two months at most before the expiration of the term of office of the President of the Republic, the Chamber is summoned by its President to elect the new President of the Republic. However, should it not be summoned for this purpose, the Chamber meets of its own accord on the tenth day preceding the expiration of the President's term of office. (Bold mine).

November 14 IS ten days before the current (extended and unconstitutional) presidential term expires. Berri has no authority whatsoever to convene anything anymore.

Maybe the hair-splitters will argue, well Berri “summoned” but “they” did not come (including damned Berri). So, article 73 does not apply anymore. I wonder how many articles are still valid under the wonderful Saudi-Syrian Taef document?

Ironically, if you try to go to the web site of the now-defunct Constitutional Council, you get “This site is temporarily disabled”. Temporarily? I think not. The gods have spoken.

Prez Election: Tidbits and Names

2007-11-09T20:37:00.000-05:00

Item: If you’re wondering what Hariri-Aoun talked about in the midst of the gravest time in the history of the country, among other things:

Aoun and Hariri had agreed to break down the current list of presidential candidates into four groupings.

-One group includes the "official" candidates from both camps;

-the second includes candidates accepted separately by the opposition and the majority but who could be "vetoed" by the senior leaders if not agreed on

-the third includes neutral candidates without official backing from either side

-and the fourth includes two names: General Michel Suleiman, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, and Banque du Liban Governor Riad Salameh.

So at least they agreed on the categories/boxes. Did they agree on who falls in what box? Or is that for after the crucial deadline of November 24?

Item: Patriarch Sfeir who had the brilliant idea of keeping Emile Lahoud in power in 2005, lest the prestige of that now crappy office be diminished, is at it again. Following his “2/3 quorum” blunder that undercut the best credible M14 threat, Sfeir now wants a candidate equidistant from M14 and M8.

Calibrating one’s position is everything. The election would be over today and Aoun would be president had he positioned himself 80% with Hezbollah, instead of the current insane 120%.

Similarly, Sfeir and Bkirki/Bkerke have blown their positioning by picking the middle here. For one, the middle is not consistent with what THEY want for Lebanon. For two, it further emboldens Aoun and Hezbo in their obstructionism. For three, they do not understand that for Hezbo/Syria there is NO frigging middle.

Parenthesis: Where the hell are the Orthodox and the Greek-Catholic religious heads? Their co-religionists often like to say “the Maronites screwed it up”. What the hell is their position? I mean besides the universal, but meaningless, consensus-lawful-deadline-peace-love-get-a-conscience blarney.

Finally someone, Carlos Edde’s National Bloc, criticized Bkirki’s recent statements for lack of courage (L’Orient-Le Jour Nov 9, link unavailable). Bkirki quickly responded with blah blah grave crisis and blah blah Sfeir’s wisdom (L’Orient-Le Jour Nov 10, link good one day).

Item: With a few days to go into the most momentous election in Lebanon’s history the politicians would have you believe that no names were ever been discussed. Given the dimness of the bulbs in question, that could well be true. However, for those who want names, other than the disqualified Aoun/NLahoud/Harb, here you go:

According to press reports the names tossed around: Amb. Simon Karam, ex-Minister Dimianos Qattar (Demianos/Damianos Kattar), MP Farid el-Khazen, Lawyer Shakib Kortbawi, and (hat-tip other tony) Maronite League head Joseph Torbay (Daily Star article, archived).

And now, little boys and girls, obviously those five are neither in box 1 nor in box 4 above. Can you fit them in the remaining two boxes?

In the Name of Idiocy and Secrecy

2007-10-28T03:28:00.000-04:00

Lebanese blogging is down, here and elsewhere. It’s not surprising. As the suspense builds in Lebanon over the selection of a new president in the next few days, the newspapers have become unreadable. It’s all: X met Y, progress was achieved, but it’s all very secret.

On a lucky day, one of X or Y is Lebanese. Usually it’s a non-Lebanese Arab talking to some EU or UN guy and both are saying: hands off Lebanon. And, of course, our locals are bending over backwards to talk to these foreigners, while refusing to talk to one another, yet at the same time yelling “NO” to foreign interference.

The beauty of it is that, not only not much happens, it’s all very hush-hush. God forbid the populace finds out about its own future, or lack thereof.

From a recent Naharnet story (full story here, excerpts below):

Christian Committee Refers Recommendations to Patriarch Sfeir

A four-member committee grouping Christian representatives of the majority and opposition said Saturday that it did not review names of presidential candidates, stressing that the mission is "the leaders' responsibility."

“Not naming names” has become the new national mantra. The committee assigned the task of finding an “agreement” or ‘consensus” (i.e. insipid) candidate did not review names, and if they did they would not tell you the names. They were assigned by their, ahem, “leaders” to do nothing and report back to their, ahem, “leaders”.

The announcement was made by Bishop Samir Mazloum who announced to reporters at Bkirki that the committee has concluded its assignment and would refer its recommendations to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, who has the liberty of announcing them or not.

The patriarch will decide whether or not we, lowly bastards, get to know what’s going on. Save it your Eminence, we already know: very little is going on.

We have agreed on specifications and assignment of the new president and Patriarch Sfeir would decide what to do with our recommendations, Mazloum stressed.

Now I have ideas about what the committee can do with its recommendations, but they’re certainly better off with Sfeir telling them what to do.

He [Mazloum] refused to answer repeated questions about nature of the committee's recommendations.

It’s all TOP SECRET, you lowly peons. Move on, it’s only the future of your country.

Referring the recommendations to Patriarch Sfeir apparently settled a reported dispute among committee members on the authority to which its final report would be referred.

Thanks to the great writing at Naharnet, I have no idea what the above means but I think I can guess from previous experience.

When 128 MPs in parliament could not agree, we went to the “dialogue table”. When the dialogue table (some 20 people) could not agree, we went to the Committee of (Christian) Four. Now the four cannot agree, the patriarch will apparently do something. What? Pick a name and keep it to himself? Or maybe, if the patriarch fails to make up his mind, we can CAT scan his brains to come up with the magic qualities of the new prez (but, please, NO name). Jeez, can it be this tough finding a replacement for Emile Lahoud?

It [an-Nahar] also reported in its Saturday morning edition that the Christian committee has agreed that all MPs should attend the presidential elections session, which puts an end to the traditional dispute on quorum, be it two thirds of legislators or just simple majority.

All right, a teeny weeny piece of news here IF (huge if) it actually means that all Christian MPs, read Aounists, will show up on election day, regardless of agreement on a candidate. I have my doubts, see next line below.

However, committee members have not reached agreement on the authority to which its recommendations would be referred, an-Nahar reported.

It said representatives of the March 14 majority want the recommendations referred to Patriarch Sfeir, while opposition representatives want them referred to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Parliamentary Majority leader Saad Hariri who are involved in talks to agree on a consensus presidential candidate.

Referring the recommendations to Berri-Hariri, the report noted, puts them under possible veto by Berri, who represents the Hizbullah-led opposition in the talks.

Refer what to whom? Does any of that sound like they even agreed on the color of the sky?

Hizbullah has noted that it backs consensus among Christians on a presidential candidate conditional to nationwide consensus, leaving the door open to veto by the pro-Syrian opposition.

The above is the crown jewel of the piece. It highlights the supreme futility of all those meetings and talks. TRANSLATION: Hezbo will accept what the Christians say. Unless they don’t like it.

U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman on Friday dealt a blow to President Emile Lahoud's alleged hope of remaining in office after his extended term expires on Nov. 24.

Even with the word “alleged” before the word “hope”, the fact that the above needs to be said tells you that Lebanon is living in the Twilight Zone cubed.

Washington would not deal with Lahoud after Nov. 24, the U.S. ambassador stressed in a statement.

Ditto for that statement. In fact, recent polls show 78.2% in favor of a constitutional amendment mandating the summary execution for anyone caught talking to the son of a thousand bitches after November 24.

Meanwhile, MP Michel Murr told LBC Friday evening that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun does not enjoy enough parliamentary backing to win a presidential vote.

Aha! That old fox Michel Murr breaking the code of silence and blessing all of us with a truth only known to every ass in Lebanon.

"He knows that if he goes to parliament he cannot win," Murr said of Aoun.

Thanks Abou'l Mich Murr. We all know that. However, it’s reassuring to know that some truths are within the shaky grasp of Abou’l Mich Aoun.

By Nov. 11, one day before the date set by Berri for Parliament to elect a president, "we will tell him (Aoun) that vacuum (in the presidential office) is not an option," Murr added.

"I say that we will not accept vacuum, we will not ruin the country if consensus was not reached on him (Aoun)," Murr added.

Yeah, that's leadership. Let’s wait until the end of the world to tell Aoun what every cretin knows to be in the country’s interest. Can we now, at least, suspect that MPs of the worst kind, like you, will step back from the brink one day before Armageddon? Couldn’t you have spared the country months of anguish and economic ruin? (And please don’t change your mind when your buddy Bashar calls.)

"I'll support any candidate accepted by Berri, Hariri and Bkirki," Murr added.

And I’ll accept any candidate supported by Bush, Castro, Assad, Shaker Absi and Pinochet. I just sent Murr one of those new controversial tee shirts with the picture of 2 boobs on it, Hariri and Berri. And it says: Who needs brains when you got these?

Nabih Berri: You're Safe Baby

2007-09-21T13:17:00.000-04:00

In the wake of the latest political assassination (MP Antoine Ghanem) Speaker Nabih Berri/Berry did what Lebanese politicians do best.

1) Mastering the obvious: there’s a conspiracy against Lebanon.

2) Self-aggrandizing: the assassination targets the country, but also Berri’s lame "initiative" (to elect a consensus president).

We all agree on conspiracy. We all agree that the conspiracy seeks to destroy Lebanon. We all agree that, so far, the conspiracy has only targeted anti-Syrian/M14 MPs and personalities.

Based on that last fact many accuse Syria.

Also based on that same fact, others exculpate Syria and say it’s the devious Americans trying to destroy the region. The devious Americans/Zionists, the theory goes, are killing their own allies to make Syria look bad. That is, of course, when the devious Americans are not blowing up their own soldiers in Iraq to justify staying there. Those are the same devious Americans who blew up the twin towers on September 11, 2001, in order to have an excuse to go to Iraq. Why? So they could finally blow up their own troops there, to destabilize the Middle East which heretofore had been an oasis of peace and stability.

One fact, different interpretations. Take your pick.

Back to Lebanon and the conspiracy. Here’s another fact: NO ONE from the pro-Syrian coalition has been targeted, including Berri and his friends. What could that FACT mean?

It could mean that the people behind the conspiracy are happy and satisfied with what Berri and friends are doing, and that Berri is therefore (unwittingly?) helping the conspiracy.

Or it could mean that Berri's disappearance, or his allies', would not harm Lebanon whatsoever, so why bother?

Or it could be that the devious conspirators, hate Berri and want him out. However, they are afraid to touch him for fear of being uncovered. Then, everyone would know it’s not the Syrians, and the devious Americans would be exposed. Better keep killing their allies.

Or it could mean that targeting Berri and his friends could be actually be "good" for Lebanon and "bad" for the conspiracy guys. So NO, NO, Berri must be protected at all cost.

Take you pick.

Face it Nabih Berri. The conspiracy guys want to kill Lebanon and hurt it badly. They go after the country’s ASSETS. And guess what? You are not an asset. You are NOT a danger to the conspiracy, to say the least. Taking you out, or your friends, would NOT harm Lebanon.

Whomever the conspirators may be, they know that much. That is why you, Nabih Berri, are safe and the country is not.

Olmert: In the Footsteps of Saniora

2007-09-11T20:49:00.000-04:00

Well, well. Two days after the mysterious Israeli air raid on Syria we get a plausible explanation.

U.S. Official: Israel Raided Syria to Stop Hizbullah Supplies

Israel carried out an air strike well inside Syria last week, apparently to send Damascus a message not to rearm Hizbullah in Lebanon, a U.S. defense official said Tuesday.

Someone took a leaf out of our own Milquetoast Seniora’s book, more specifically out of volume II, the one titled “The fine art of ‘Too little, Too Late’”

What the hell? Israeli intelligence has been saying for months now that Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon is now bigger and more lethal than it was prior to the July 2006 war. Hezbollah claims as much, touting 30,000 rockets or some such number.

I am not sure what Israel is thinking but this air raid seems more related to pressuring Syria as we go into the Lebanese presidential election and to testing Syria’s new Russian air defenses (or see UPDATE below), rather than stopping Hezbo weapons. Too late there.

Plus, you know, our own Saniora is on the case:

Saniora Urges Syria to Help Prevent Arms Smuggling into Lebanon

"Help prevent"? It is their INTENT PURPOSE to send these weapons to Lebanon for nefarious purposes.

Syria has had a 50-year plan to ship weapons to Lebanon for the express double purpose of destabilizing Lebanon and of threatening Israel (in that order). They are also trying to kill PM Seniora/Saniora who keeps calling them “brothers”.

In light of the above, Dim Bulb Seniora woke up two days ago and decided to boldly turn things around by asking Syria to be nice.

"We've always expressed the necessity for serious border control and suitable efforts by our brothers in Syria to control these borders," said Saniora

This is pathos of the utmost.

On the very serious matter threatening to tear the country asunder, the presidential election, re the Berri initiative we have:

Saniora also said that he was open to studying an initiative proposed by House Speaker Nabih Berri[...]

and

It is a question of moving toward what it is possible to create" and what can be "developed," Saniora said after meeting Arab League chief Amr Moussa.

Study “this” and move toward “that” and create “this” and develop “that” before sticking it where the sun don’t shine Milquy Boy, after of course you’ve discussed our national destiny with yet another frigging foreigner.

But in all that, I must be missing something. Because not only did Olmert adopt Seniora’s (non-) method but now the Syrians are imitating the Master of Inertia.

After the air raid, Syrian Vice President Shara thundered:

"I can say now that in Damascus a series of responses is being examined at the highest political and military levels. The results will not take long in coming," Mr. a-Shara told the Italian newspaper.

Yes, it will not "take long" and very soon, I am sure, NOTHING will happen. You make your enemy-brother Seniora teary-eyed and so very proud.

***UPDATE: Still unclear what, if anything, was raided. See this BBC story and many others. The target had to be important given the risk (and the message is still there). New more dangerous missiles to Hezbo? Chemical weapons/plants? Even nuclear facilities? The speculation goes on.

Angels on Pins and Pinheads

2007-09-05T07:24:00.000-04:00

With our mental midgets calling one another names in the midst of an national existential crisis, some of their more reasonable allies and academics met recently in Switzerland to discuss serious matters: power sharing, the constitution, solutions to political blockage, relations with Syria.

I was initially encouraged when reading the lengthy piece: serious people from all sides debating the real issues.

Alas, those people want to keep a low profile and are discussing solutions for a future Lebanon, WHEN THE CURRENT STALEMATE IS RESOLVED. Excuse me but isn’t that putting the cart before the horse? Talk about being out of touch and wasting resources. There may not be a country after this crisis. With the crazies and the hotheads away, why not address the way out of the PRESENT problem.

Elsewhere, in an opinion piece, Chibli Mallat asks more immediate and relevant questions. Why is the head of parliament (Berri who rants about US interference) asking the opinion of the US on the Lebanese constitution?

And why are we even discussing the 2/3 quorum business, when it’s the duty of the MPs to show up and elect the new guy? Especially when nothing is preventing them from being present and voting, even if it means abstaining with a blank vote.

Aoun-Sense: Fun With Micho

2007-09-03T10:01:00.000-04:00

But first and more important: Congratulations to the Lebanese Army for winning the long fight at Nahr el Bared. The cost was very high with 158 soldiers killed and many wounded. The nation should be humbled and very grateful.

In a blurb on Naharnet:

Aoun: March 14 'Bunch of Corrupt People'

Free Patriotic Movement leader General Michel Aoun lashed out at the majority March 14 Alliance, saying they "are nothing but a bunch of corrupt people."

No big scoop there Micho. Is that worth a press release? Now you, Michel Aoun, have been working with the likes of Nabih Berri and Michel Murr, certainly no strangers to corruption and abuse of power. Do they have a dimension beyond “corruption” which makes them acceptable in your eyes? I mean other than supporting you politically for their own personal and corrupt ends.

"They [M14] dare not share power with anyone, not even partially, because they are a bunch of corrupt people," Aoun told supporters who visited him at his residence in Rabiyeh.

OK Micho, if you “share power” it’s automatically “partially”. See, if it’s not “partially” then they have all of the power or you have all of it. In either case it’s not “sharing” anymore. I know some words are difficult for you to understand. Look them up. I suggest you start with: “constitution”, “quorum”, “tire burning” and “legal protest” among others.

"They [M14] should not be permitted to choose the next President for Lebanon," Aoun insisted.

Let’s say they are corrupt, and many are as are many of your allies. The constitution (get a copy) says that sitting MPs get to vote in the presidential election. It does not say that only “clean” MPs approved by Micho get to vote. Then again, we could amend the constitution to say that, and we could make it “for one time only” just for kicks.

He [Aoun] said talk about electing a new head of state by a two-thirds quorum or a half-plus-one of MPs has become "like a dancing game."

You’re right on this one, except that you and your friends are in the middle of the dance and totally out of step (again, read the constitution).

"…No. We do not choose Iran as a substitute for America nor Syria in place of America," Aoun said. "Instead, we choose peace instead of civil war."

Well, maybe not you, but what about your Hezbo friends. They chant “Death to America” and have pictures of Khomeini and Khameini everywhere. I’d venture to say they made a choice.

As to “peace over civil war”, that makes you different from your opponents? Are they actively seeking the inverse? Civil war over peace? Would anyone on planet earth make that choice? (Which makes the statement obvious and empty).

More low-level trash-talk can be found there (Daily Star), where Aoun calls some opponents “kitties” and they call him a “coward” and then Aoun’s office says they’re “childish”…

Nahr El Bared: ENOUGH!

2007-08-27T08:34:00.000-04:00

The army has lost 150 soldiers since the Nahr el Bared war with Fateh el Islam started three months ago.

Last Friday, the last civilians, mostly relatives of the criminals fighting inside the camp were evacuated. Following that very evacuation, the army lost at least another FIVE soldiers over the weekend (L’Orient- Le Jour, August 27, 2007).

I fail to see the humanitarian point this late in the game, other than as a PR mini-coup for General Michel Sleimane/Suleiman and perhaps for this stupid Seniora government that still worries about minutiae.

The army had previously, and more than once, I believe, allowed the wounded and civilians to be evacuated. Every time we saw the Fatah el Islam thugs regroup and kill more soldiers minutes later.

After every evacuation we hear from the army: this is it, only the die-hards are left, the end is near.

Imagine my surprise this morning when I saw:

Lebanon militants request evacuation of wounded

I read the Reuters headline a few times and thought: nah, gotta to be an old headline. No, It’s from Sunday August 26. After the “last” civilians evacuation and, while they are still killing soldiers, these freaks are asking for their wounded to be let go.

Saving “civilians” and wounded criminals may be compassionate and may give you the moral high ground in the first few days of a conflict. After that, all you are doing is helping the people killing you do their ghastly business, by not having to worry about their families and their wounded.

It’s not compassion anymore. It is verging on criminal stupidity. You, government and army command, are further endangering the nation by drawing out this war and keeping talks and contacts open forever. Your first duty is to protect YOUR citizens and YOUR soldiers who also have relatives you know.

I don't claim to know more than people on the ground do. However I believe that someone in position of authority ought to explain to the nation how is it that multiple evacuations and multiple ultimatums are NOT endangering our soldiers lives? Especially when the army is losing brave soldiers daily and when its casualties are higher now, with only 70 thugs left in the camp, than when this conflict first began?

Nabih Berri Does Not Exist

2007-08-23T09:51:00.000-04:00

Walid Joumblatt: I think Nabih Berri doesn’t exist.

Ouuuch!!! That’s got to be the mother of all political zingers.

That is what Walid Joumblatt/Jumblatt told L’Orient Le Jour in a lengthy interview (August 23, 2007, French, link good one day, parts in English here).

Joumblatt went on to say: Berri is a mailbox serving Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. Good God! I despise Nabih Berri but even I feel sorry for the guy (OK, not really).

In the lengthy interview Joumblatt shows everyone how the game is played. Joumblatt runs circles around PM Seniora/Saniora, Sfeir and most of the others lamoes who have given away the game before it even began.

Among other things Joumblatt very strongly says that a president SHALL be elected before November 24; 2/3 quorum or not, and whether Berri opens the parliament building or not. All legal in Joumblatt’s opinion (and I agree).

You cannot enter, let alone win, a battle against determined and ruthless opponents by giving in to their every whim, and playing dead. You have to keep them on their toes which Joumblatt does, among other things by saying "Syrian and Iranian lackeys" every time he mentions Hezbo and by keeping his options open.

On the election, Joumblatt is very clear: none of that Sfeir constitution-lite baloney: 2/3 MPs present is great but not required by law. Furthermore, EVEN if you think there’s a question mark about that subject, you still keep the question mark alive until the very last moment (look at Lahoud playing his lousy 2 governments card).

You don’t say to your opponents: well, if you boycott the elections we will be stuck so "please give us a 'consensus' prez". You would be handing them a free card and defeating yourself.

Anyway, here’s Berri’s response to Joumblatt’s words:

"The parliament speaker has the honor to be a mail box for the resistance that he was the first to establish,"

When people like Berri start talking about honor you know that crap is coming.

OK pompous Mr. Speaker, you say that you are a Hezbollah mailbox. So why the hell do you belong to, and head, a different party?

Prez Michel Suleiman: And So It Begins

2007-08-15T09:17:00.000-04:00

Deus ex machina.

After years of crisis and tension: the embassies do some voodoo, the Maronite Patriarch meets Army Chief General Suleiman, Suleiman makes a “bold” statement. Voila.

While poor Gen. Paul Fares (?) and hapless personality-challenged MPs Robert Ghanem and Boutros Harb etc are dusting up their resumes to run for president of Lebanon, the choice has been made for us and them, or so it seems.

The powers-that-be have decided General Michel Suleiman/Sleiman will be the next president of Lebanon. OK Lebanese, the goose is cooked. The Maronite Patriarch seems to have made another huge blunder but who’s counting. Most Lebanese will grumble while the rest will say those dangerous words: “this time, it’s different” (from Lahoud and Aoun).

General Suleiman the man who, weeks ago, scared us by saying he would resign his post in case of vacancy at the head of the state, now says he was misquoted and that of course he would see the nation through the storm.

This blogger is not necessarily anti-Suleiman though Suleiman’s Syrian-sponsored appointment as army chief years ago is a huge question mark, as is the fact that his sister lives in Damascus. I’ll try to return to the man when we know more. For now, the process, the need to change the constitution, the Aoun/Lahoud precedents all add to mounting concerns.

From the Daily Star:

Army Commander General Michel Suleiman has indicated he would accept to head a transitional government in the event MPs are unable to choose the next president before the end of President Emile Lahoud's term in office in November, provided all sides accept his nomination.

And

"Is it reasonable for me to abandon this ship while it is being lashed by high waves from all sides?" Suleiman asked, adding: "At any rate I am a public employee and I am subject to the Constitution..."

So far so good, that’s much better than his recent threat to bail out in case of a constitutional crisis.

What’s “less good” is when he says:

…he would remain at the head of the armed forces until a new president is elected and a new government is formed and he is satisfied with the security situation in the country.

No, when a new president is elected and a new government formed, they can fire you, General Suleiman, whenever they want.

What is far worse is that the apparent originator of the “idea” is ex-MP and ex-Minister Albert Mansour who, when the Syrians were under pressure to leave Lebanon in 2005, said: we would rather lose with Syria than win with Israel and the US.

So today Albert Mansour says:

"Such a [transitional and Maronite led] government would be in keeping with established practice, which is for a president to hand over power to a Maronite prime minister, it happened twice before,**"

What hypocrite Mansour forgets to tell you is that he fought the legal government of Aoun in the 1980’s as defense minister in the rival Hoss government. He was the defense minister when Syrian soldiers deposed Aoun.

And, since in Lebanon everyone is free to read one’s fantasies in the constitution:

Mansour said being appointed prime minister of a transitional government would allow Suleiman to bypass constitutional requirements that prevent grade-one civil servants like Suleiman from being elected to the presidency while still in their post or within two years of their resignation.

The law says that the army chief has to have been out of his job for TWO years before he can be elected president. Making him PM for a few days does not change anything, unless Mansour has in mind TWO years-plus of PM Suleiman. The Sunni community will be elated to hear that.

Furthermore you have to wonder why is Mansour talking about that? Why not amend the law and elect Suleiman now? Why can’t we have an election within the legal time frame (prior to November 13, 2007)? Is there a reason the MPs cannot meet and do their duty?

The answer is: yes. It seems that 1/3 or more MPs are unwilling to do their job. But in Lebanon, no one wants to talk about that. They don’t want to do their job? We'll just break the country some more, and destroy the (bad) constitution a little further. Bur never ever ask why our MPs, supposed guardians of the nation, are the worst possible law-breakers and duty-shirkers.

Further in the article:

Suleiman hoped political leaders in the country would go back to applying the "spirit and text" of the Taef Accord…

OK, General Suleiman, I hope you are a man of your word and I am keeping my fingers crossed. The “spirit and text” of Taef say you cannot be president in 2007.

________________________________________________________________

** Fuad Chehab and Michel Aoun in the 50’s and 80’s.respectively.

Tolstoy/Hayek over Bush

2007-07-23T17:38:00.000-04:00

Culture over politics. And people over leaders.

This post, mostly a link, is dedicated to all those who keep saying and writing letters-to-the-editor and open letters (and that includes you Ghassan Tueni and Rami Khouri): if only our leaders would do this, if only our politicians would do that…

Here’s David Brooks via Café Hayek (and via Josey):

Tolstoy had a very different theory of history. Tolstoy believed great leaders are puffed-up popinjays. They think their public decisions shape history, but really it is the everyday experiences of millions of people which organically and chaotically shape the destiny of nations — from the bottom up.

Politics is a thin crust on the surface of culture. Political leaders can only play a tiny role in transforming a people, especially when the integral fabric of society has dissolved. [Bold mine]

Apply everywhere. Apply to Lebanon.

The whole Café Hayek piece is there (with link to Brooks in the NYT, though he’s behind the registration wall).

PS. Josey’s out for a week or so. Be safe all.

Little Old Lady Seniora on Libya: Help!

2007-07-22T09:22:00.001-04:00

Can’t Seniora/Sanioura and his inept government get anything right? From changing the official holiday schedule to the handling of Nahr el Bared and the constitutional crises, I have yet to be impressed with ONE action or ONE forceful intelligent statement from anyone in the current government.

Here’s the latest (according to Naharnet):

Libya and Khadafy (Qaddafi) are seen fomenting the terrible events of Nahr el Bared, with their incredible toll in human life, destruction and threat to security and the Seniora government’s response is:

Discreet back channel complaints to Nicolas Sarkozy. Help Nick! Please tell the Libyans off!

Beirut asked Sarkozy to Pressure Khadafy into Aborting Lebanon Destabilization Scheme [Title]

Khadafy, according to the information, was convinced by Syria and Iran to revive his backing of such Palestinian and Sunni Lebanese factions in the northern city of Tripoli, the southern city of Sidon as well as the capital Beirut and the western sector of the Bekaa valley.

...

According to credible information received by Naharnet, the Lebanese request [to get help from Sarkozy] was made through diplomatic channels following confirmed reports of recent meetings between Khadafy and leader of the pro-Syrian Palestinian guerrilla group which is active in Lebanon.

The rest of it is here.

Atta boy Seniora! Stick with your failing plan:

-Don’t tell your people anything. Let rumors fly at every turn and, once in a blue moon, leak crappy information to a foreign newspaper that no one in your country reads.

-Don’t put any pressure on, nor remove, any security official failing at his job.

-If Libya is trying, yet again; to destroy your country, wait 30 years like we did with Syria before you publicly accuse them.

-Never ever break diplomatic relations** with enemy countries (what else to call them). And surely don’t ask the Arab League nor the UN to do anything about it.

-Most impressively: go beg some Western leader for protection. After seeing you kiss Syrian ass forever, your supporters and opponents will be very impressed, and deterred, by seeing you kiss elegant French ass for a change.

The usual excuse for inaction in Lebanon is that some cockamamie group or sect opposes such. Certainly Amal, if not the whole Shia community, loathes Libya (as it should) for its role in the disappearance of Imam Moussa Sadr on a trip there in 1978. With M14 behind Seniora, what is the problem with doing the right thing and showing firmness? What’s the excuse this time?

** I am unsure about the detailed relations between Libya and Lebanon since 1978, but in doing a quick search, I came about this 2003 AP story: Libya cut relations with Lebanon over some Berri/Nasrallah comments. Yes, you read it right: THEY cut with US, while our Foreign Affairs Moron of the time Jean Obeid had “no comment”.

Prez Election: Shocker and Scandal

2007-07-20T13:37:00.000-04:00

President Lahoud’s term expires November 22, 2007. In a twist of irony, it's also Lebanese Independence Day.

As we head into the contentious election, people have been at loggerheads interpreting article 49 of the constitution. Do we need a 2/3 quorum to hold the election, or not?

In good Lebanese tradition the Supreme Court is an invisible ghost, while the different sides twist the facts and the law to fit their own agenda. Hezbo-Amal-Aoun being the most egregious “distorters” of the law. M14 says we need a plain quorum, and 2/3 votes to elect on the first round (correct in my view, see here and here).

M8 says: no election without 2/3 present. In other words, no election if they boycott, since they have 1/3 of the MPs. Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, no constitutional scholar, saw it fit to undermine his own side (and not for the first time) by saying that 2/3 were needed.

Article 49 of the constitution (in translation):

The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two-thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient.

Now while one side says 2/3 are needed and the other says no, the Parliamentary Committee for the Modernization of Laws, headed by MP Robert Ghanem says (L’Orient-Le Jour July 17, 2007, behind pay-wall, my translation):

...the text of the Constitution, when it evokes an election in the majority of two thirds at the first ballot, that means, ipso facto, that the quorum of this same meeting is fixed at two thirds of the deputies

Shocker number one: the parliament that is unfit to meet to conduct urgent business according to its Speaker Nabih Berri, is fit to elect a new President and fit to have its committees meet and conduct other business, as long as it's approved by King Nabih.

Shocker number two: Legal reasoning. Genius Robert Ghanem (and committee) added:

The rule is simple. An election with the majority of two thirds requires a quorum of two thirds and an election in the absolute majority requires the presence of half of the deputies plus one.

The rule is simple all right, and Ghanem is a simpleton. The rule requires more votes to be elected the first round of voting (2/3), period. Nothing uncommon there. Yes it’s an attempt at a wider consensus at first, but also a way to avoid having 20 candidates and one guy elected by 12 votes in the first round.

The committee and Ghanem want us to believe that the constitution has TWO quorums in mind, for 2 consecutive votes that usually take place in the same afternoon?

Why is Ghanem a sometime March 14 MP saying this? Because he wants to be nice to the M8-2/3 side and can’t even argue it smartly?

Well as a Maronite he is eligible to be president. And as a bland incompetent weasel, he’s automatically on the short list. I suppose that given the Patriarch's position, and with St-Cloud compromise in the air, Roro Ghanem knows where his butter is.

In my mind, there is a bigger scandal than the various quorum interpretations. The patriarch and others already got us in to the 2/3 danger zone and anyone (legally) elected without a 2/3 quorum will be tainted. However, there’s another scandal in my mind. The vote should be by SECRET ballot and I’ll bet you anything that, come the election, it won’t be secret.

The ballot was not secret in the past nor will it be secret this time around if history is any guide. People who have watched the process before know that when the votes are counted and X is one of the candidates we get:

Mr. X, X the Great, X, President X, Next President X, X Bey, Dear X….

No two ballots are the same so each can be tracked back to an MP. And that’s how our MPs, their allies, those who bought them, and those who threatened them know who voted for whom.

Secret ballot? Freedom of conscience and opinion when voting? Protection thanks to an anonymous process? No way.

Try to interpret that "secret ballot" out of the Article 49. But even that matters little. Our politicians may make the effort to twist the law, but when they can’t, and still don’t like the law, they will do as they please and we will get another flawed election, if any.

Presidential Election: Sfeir versus Safadi

2007-07-19T06:05:00.000-04:00

In Lebanon everyone; no matter the specialty, experience, or education, is an expert on everything. Most recently the Lebanese are now all experts on constitutional law. Who can blame them when the supreme court/council is nowhere to be found (yes, there is one).

From the Patriarch to the Mufti to the Sheik, from Lahoud to Berri, from the wiser Abu Stef and Abu el-Abd, they all have judicial opinions on article 49, the key article about presidential election procedure. (I'll try to cover other views later, this note focuses on Sfeir and Safadi.)

Article 49 of the constitution (in translation):

The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two-thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient.

It’s not very complicated but the article is not explicit on the quorum question, i.e. the minimum number of MPs needed to proceed with the election. The quorum is usually a simple majority of the members or 65 MPs (128 seats total).

Currently M14 has 68 MPs and therefore has over the minimum required to have both a quorum and to elect its own candidate, if there are no defections. (I’ve argued before that that is the correct interpretation of article 49).

The opposition Hezbo-Amal-Aoun says that 2/3 of the MPs are needed to hold an election. In other words they say 86 MPs need to be there or no election. The opposition controls over 1/3 votes and so (surprise!), according to their interpretation, no election could obtain without their presence.

The 2/3 election quorum has almost been mooted however, by Maronite Patriarch Sfeir (closer to M14) and by the Tripoli Safadi group (an M14 sub-group with 4 MPs). Sfeir (wrongly) pulled the moral carpet from under M14. Safadi has the 4 MPs needed to force a 2/3 quorum, at least for a while.

Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir said Monday that constitutional articles "clearly" specify that a two-thirds quorum is needed to elect the next president.

Sfeir is wrong on the law but his opinion matters. I think Sfeir is wrong on the politics too, further opening the door to sabotage attempt by Hezbo-Aoun. I think Sfeir has been making one bad call after another recently.

In the aftermath of the St-Cloud meeting, Mohammed Safadi, an MP and minister in the Saniora cabinet, said he wouldn’t participate in the election without a 2/3 quorum. He and his group (4MPs) would however participate, even without 2/3 quorum, if there were no new president with 10 days to expiration of the term of the current clown. (L'Orient-Le Jour, July 19 2007, link good one day)

I don’t know much about Safadi and his bloc. However on the election issue, Safadi is not giving a legal opinion, which should be left to the high court, but he is stating what he will do. That is his prerogative and perfectly legal.

Furthermore Safadi's position is actually very defensible: trying to get a wide consensus while at the same time clearly refusing outright sabotage of the election.

St-Cloud: No News Bad News

2007-07-16T09:14:00.000-04:00

Representatives of the deadlocked Lebanese political parties met in St Cloud under the mediating presence of French Foreign Affairs Minister Kouchner.

Nothing happened. Nothing was expected. Those who could not communicate in parliament, nor around a “round” table, failed again. Only this time, the chateau, once owned by Madame de Pompadour, provided a nicer setting.

"This dialogue will continue between the Lebanese on Lebanese territory ... I think they have broken the ice. I think they were very happy to talk together," he [Kouchner] added.

Great. Those who would not bring themselves to “talk”, after 2 years of watching their country sink, had to go to France to decide, perhaps, that they will talk now on Lebanese soil. Of course that’s baloney. It was not Kouchner’s charm, nor the ghost of Mme de Pompadour, that changed (perhaps) the demeanor of our sub-flunkies. I say “sub” because the main flunkies stayed home and were represented by underlings. It was, we are told, because Saudi and Iran and France have been discussing our fate behind the scenes. And so of course our flunkies oblige.

Also, by sending the third-raters to St-Cloud you guarantee “no results” because it’s the second-raters who make the decisions, perhaps. In case you’re wondering, we have no first-raters.

It [Naharnet source] said Kouchner's offer was rejected at the last minute by representatives from the pro-Syrian March 8 Forces who argued that such a position needed a "political decision" from their leaderships.

Even a “blah” general statement was too much to be entrusted to the flunkies of St-Cloud by their Lebanese masters. Why not use the phone you ask? The setting disallowed outside contact (no phones, no cells according to Le Figaro) because no one trusts any of these people not to be on the phone to Damascus or some other puppeteer.

And now those who are “happy” to talk together to save their own country and their own ass, perhaps, won’t be talking together before French Nanny Kouchner comes to Beirut in ten days or so to hold their hands and change their diapers.

In the absence of the usual bland communiqué we get:

The around 30 delegates "reiterated their support for full respect for the foundations for the Lebanese State, the sovereignty, the independence," Kouchner said.

I am surprised the 30 did not come out against the mass murder of babies and the torture of cute puppies. But hey, they really had no authorization from back home, which in turn is awaiting authorization from Damascus, Tehran, Saudi etc

Then again, if we are still figuring out that the institution of “state” may be beneficial then we are still making the transition from cavemen to organized society.

Instead of translating Michael Moore, Elle Magazine, and Maria Mercedes in Arabic someone ought to tackle Thomas Hobbes (on pre-state societies):

Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of Warre, where every man is Enemy to every man;….[snip]… And the life of man, solitary, poore, nasty, brutish, and short." (Hobbes 1651 AD)

Syria? Nah. It’s the Danes

2007-06-26T11:12:00.000-04:00

Nahr el Bared? Bombs? Destabilization? Yep, the Danes, with some help from the Aussies.

A Danish national and a man with a residence permit in Denmark are among alleged Islamic militants arrested in northern Lebanon in recent weeks, the Foreign Ministry in Copenhagen said Tuesday. (Naharnet, June 26 2007).

Danish authorities also were investigating reports that a third man with Danish ties was arrested Sunday during fights in Tripoli between Lebanese troops and alleged Islamic extremists, Thuesen said.

Damn! We just lost a (tired) joke, and the Hezbollah gang just gained a (specious) argument.

In the never-ending discussion with the blind: Who’s destabilizing Lebanon? Pro-Syrians would invariably say: it’s not Syria. Opponents would respond: yeah right! It’s the Swiss or the Swedes, or some other peaceful and remote people.

No more. The damn Danes have been caught red handed, along with some Aussies too:

On Monday, Australia's foreign minister said that three Australians are among terrorists arrested after fighting against Lebanese soldiers in Tripoli.

Officials in Canberra were also checking reports that two other Australians were killed in the fighting, Alexander Downer said. (Naharnet, June 26 2007).

Any time now, expect Syrian attack dog Moallem or some other regime hack to issue an “I told you so” statement.

As for me, I’m taking bets that Crocodile Dundee was not among the Aussies, and that the Nahr el Bared Danes won't have names like Lars nor Anders. Takers anyone?

Nahr el-Bared: Victory or Confusion?

2007-06-22T20:00:00.000-04:00

[Warning to excitable types: Do not construe this post as disparaging to the army and its fallen heroes. I salute the army and those who made the ultimate sacrifice. This post is about our top civilian leadership, and perhaps some top army brass.]

No matter where you stand politically, you have got to admit that our government (and army) are total ZEROES when it comes to communication.

Today, I read all the news I could get my hands on. I still have no idea what is going on in Nahr el-Bared. And our high-ranking officials appear as clueless as I am, if not more.

Defense Minister Elias Murr just said military operations have stopped but the siege continues (??).

Naharnet reports more firing and shelling today, after Defense Minister Murr said operations ended.

Murr also said that there is no proof yet of Syrian ties to Fateh al-Islam. He added more info would come in the next few days (and if you believe that I have a bridge for you…).

Murr’s own PM Saniora/Seniora and others in M14 have said, or at least implied, for weeks now that there was a Syrian connection. Which is it? And if there is no Syrian connection, whence the hell is Fatah el Islam getting reinforced?

As for the army’s communications department, though they have a web site, they still live in the 1950’s. Every time the army fires a bullet, the department issues a three-page communiqué telling us that we are all brothers, with the camps, and the Palestinian cause, and all the other brothers too. You can almost hear (divine) Um Kalthoum in the background.

I don’t want any singsong from your communications department. You are the ARMY, your job in war is to break things and kill people, as they say. Just tell me what you’re objectives are, what your casualties are, and how many SOB enemies you’ve killed today.

While I try to get info on Bared, I go to the army web site and I learn that the army commander just met with an association to commemorate former President Hrawi, headed, by his widow Mona Hrawi. Top of the news on 6/22, not in some "social" section. Is that a morale booster or what?

Of course there are other "news" on the army web site, but besides the obituaries of the fallen, it is fluff and gibberish. When are we going to get rid of the communications idiots who went to the “istaqbala” school? The Lebanese know every boy-scout and girl-scout the President or the army commander meet, but have otherwise no clue what their government is doing.

Back to the government and Murr (from Naharnet).

He [Murr] said a “large number" of Fatah al-Islam commanders had been killed over the past month, while leader Shaker Abssi, deputy leader Abu Hureira and others were on the run, suggesting they were hiding in the camp among several thousand Palestinian civilians still holed up there.

The head of the gang is “on the run” inside a sub-part of the (small) camp? "On the run?" Is he jogging around the camp for exercise? Is he on the run on his treadmill? If he is in the damn area and he's the most wanted man in Lebanon, now what? The story ends here? No sane person can believe or accept that.

Murr said that a total of 76 soldiers had died since the battle broke out on May 20, and that another 150 had been wounded. He also said that there are about 100 Fatah al-Islam militants injured in the gunbattles.

The army took over 200 casualties versus 100 to end in what looks like a stalemate and more of the same garbage we have come to expect in Lebanon, including a bunch of “brotherly” thugs patrolling the streets of Saida-Taamir-Ein el-Helweh as a buffer between the army and other thugs?

Sheik Mohammed Haj of the Palestinian Scholars Association, a mediator who met with the militant group's leaders in recent days, said Fatah al-Islam "has declared a cease-fire and will comply with the Lebanese army's decision to end military operations."

Can someone explain to me what in the name of Hell does that mean? They won’t shoot at the army (for now) if the army stops shooting at them? Gee thanks!

He [Sheik Haj] said the militants would abide by conditions set by the army to end the fighting, but he would not elaborate.

So the army’s conditions DO NOT include the arrest of the thug-in-chief (and ex-Syrian prisoner) Shaker Abssi?

Ms Levantine, in a comment on another blog, suggests that maybe the politicos have stopped the army as they did back in 1973 (versus the PLO). Talk about morons who don’t learn from history.

In that regard: Murr tells the Daily Star that Army Commander Michel Suleiman would make a good president. Of course General Suleiman is NOT eligible to be elected. The Lebanese toilet-paper roll called “constitution” says the Army chief and other high officials are ineligible unless they leave office 2 years before the election (Article 49). But no one cares, its’ only the constitution. Murr and the Star don’t even bother to mention that fact.

Of course, that article was put in the law for a REASON. The reason is to prevent these high officials from making POLITICAL decisions, in the hope of being elected, close to an election. I hope that neither that, nor some political pressure, are at play here.

So why are we suspicious and entertain all sorts of crazy scenarios? Because, among many reasons, we are given ZERO information by our local ZEROES.

The Song Remains the Same

2007-06-19T07:42:00.000-04:00

Reading the daily news in Lebanon is like being the Bill Murray character in the movie Groundhog Day, where Murray wakes up every day to find out, again: "It's Groundhog Day!"

Here's a sample from the past 48 hours of stories we've been reading for weeks, if not for years. These stories just won't die. They will kill us all, but they just won't die.

1) The "Arab League envoy" story.

Like a bad sequel to Return of the Living Dead, Amr Moussa is due back in Beirut to mediate between the different parties. The number of times a League Secretary has visited Lebanon to mediate approaches infinity. How about we stop welcoming and meeting the most useless human being on the planet: Amr Moussa, head of the Effing Arab League?

Where is Sawsan Darwish to suggest that someone shoot the miserable son of a bitch? Just like that, for no reason. Just because every frigging Lebanese, on all sides I guarantee, is beyond sick and tired of seeing Moussa's name and silly smile in the news.

And, in the unlikely event someone notices the SOB is missing, we can always open another one of our very open-ended investigations, and I personally promise that we won’t rest until blah blah blah…you know the rest.

2) The "UN help" story.

Seniora/Saniora wants UN help in the murder of MP Walid Eido. Fuad, the UN can’t even help itself. Kofi Annan in his day let the Rwanda massacre happen right under his nose.

The current UN is still “working” on Darfur at the rate of 200,000 dead per year. And Ban Ki-moon (Amr Moussa in Korean) thinks global warming is responsible for genocide in Darfur. In Lebanon they're already "helping" in the camps, and the South, and with Hariri tribunal. No thanks, I’ve seen and gotten enough help and protection from the UN.

3) The "tightening the noose" on Nahr el-Bared story.

Stop clearing ordnance and mines and booby-trapped buildings and booby-trapped corpses in Nahr el Bared by sending in Lebanese soldiers. We lost three more valiant soldiers today. Blow up the Goddamn remaining quarter. The camp's civilians have left, and those still there have made their choice.

Protect your soldiers and their morale. Decisiveness and ruthlessness is not a bad signal to send to the creeps-in-wait in Ein el Helweh, Naameh etc. Stop “tightening the noose” on Nahr el Bared. It’s costly and cruel to both sides (if civilians are left) and not very believable three weeks into the “tightening”.

4) The "apply the law this time" story.

M14 thinks it can wait out an enemy like Syria/Iran/Hezbo. M14, your leaders/MPs are being murdered one by one. The other side's are not. Stop thinking the law is a negotiable joke. It’s great and overdue to call for by-elections under the 2-month constitutional requirement for a replacement election (Article 41 of the constitution).

MP Pierre Gemayel was murdered in November 2006, 7 months ago. Had you forced an election then, maybe the law would be less of a joke and maybe Walid Eido would be alive today and maybe Lahoud would be less defiant today and maybe you would not be used as a doormat.

(I know, Lahoud won't sign now and would not then, but now M14 will go ahead anyway and force the issue)

5) The "round-table talks" story.

Paris St-Cloud, after Taef, Lausanne, downtown Beirut, etc Stop going to round-table meetings with people who have no interest in a solution and/or no power to negotiate one. Been there done that. When we are lucky nothing happens, otherwise it's Cairo 69 or Taef 89: the matrices of the catastrophes befalling Lebanon.

If only we would get away from these recurrent bad ideas/habits. It may not solve the problems but it sure would give our leaders and readers a needed break from useless tiresome garbage.

Sawsan Darwish: The Halakuna Mindset:

2007-06-15T18:05:00.000-04:00

Hahaha. What took them so long? You think the next one is Ahmad Fatfat? Halakuna!

Two days ago, a car bomb took the life of its intended victim M14 MP Walid Eido. According to some reports Eido, a former judge, worked recently on the details of the international Hariri tribunal. The bomb also killed his eldest son Khaled, two Nejmeh club players Hussein Dokmak and Hussein Naim, and 6 other passers by (RIP all). Ten people dead in all, plus countless wounded on the Corniche, a popular beach/café strip.

Everyone knows by now that a news anchor at NBN, Sawsan Darwish, was caught on mike gloating over the killing, and “jokingly” wondering when “they” would kill the next M14 MP Ahmad Fatfat. Outrage was followed by her firing (apparently) and by a very lame apology from the network.

My guess is that Sawsan, like Syria’s Bashar, is happy that a critic of Syria, of Nabih Berri (who owns/controls the TV station NBN), and of Hezbollah has been silenced. To her ilk, the added bonus is that now people will be further deterred from upsetting Syria, either by speaking their mind or by sitting on the international tribunal.

I don’t expect this airhead Sawsan newsperson to have deep thoughts on how (serial) political murder affects the rule of law, the future of the republic, the social fabric of the nation etc. But even decency and common sense are nowhere to be found.

God forbid "they" "get” the next person. Fifty people could die with that targeted person, just like the nine people who died with MP Eido. That’s "OK" with people like Sawsan. In their view, it's worth the prize, whatever the hell that may be.

Furthermore, rather attractive anchorettes like this bimbette, journalists and politicians tend to roam the same neighborhoods, and cafes, and restaurants and beaches. What are the odds YOU Sawsan Darwish, or someone dear to you, is killed or maimed in the next bombing-murder? Or the one after that?

In a bitter political fight, it’s one thing to wish you enemy ill. It’s quite another to wish for his death by murder, especially when that murder may/will kill many innocents including YOU.

After her little "joke", Sawsan adds that she/we had enough: “Halakuna!”.

That last comment, I found intriguing. Of course I don’t give a fig what Sawsan Darwish “thinks”. However she is one of very many who think like that on the Hezbo/Amal/Aoun side.

Whatever do they mean?

“Halakuna” literally means “they’ve exhausted us” or “we can’t take it anymore”. A better (though ironic) translation is “they’re killing us!”

I wonder what is it that people like Sawsan cannot take anymore from M14 and the current government? She works for Nabih Berri, so she can't be tired of corruption and incompetence:

Is it the (ill-advised) UN chapter-6 cease-fire her side begged for last summer?

Is it the M14 mushy/wussy response that gave her camp control and paralysis of the downtown area?

Is it the fact that M14 MPs and Ministers are being shot down like ducks in a pretty row at the carnival? (Can’t be that, she wants more.)

Is it the paralysis of all government institutions, led by Nabih Berri’s idled parliament?

What is it that she is tired of, or yearning for? Or is she referring to the Syrians? Halakuna! Maybe they are not killing people fast enough for her taste, as she counts down the days and the number of living M14 MPs to election day.

Attacks on Army: How Did We Get Here?

2007-06-04T10:51:00.000-04:00

Saniora in October 2005: "But there is no intention for military action. Such action is absolutely out of our political dictionary".

Yes, that was PM Siniora/Saniora in October 2005, after the Lebanese army was attacked by pretty much the same people the army is fighting today.

Here's an old post of mine of 2, TWO, deux, dos, two, II, zwei, years ago that pretty much explains how we got to the point we are at today, with thugs everywhere shooting at the army.

Army Response: Better but not Good Enough

-Note that the 2005 events involved Fateh el-Intifada, the precursor of Fateh el-Islam (if not the very same shit), and pro-Syrian Ahmad Jibril's PFLP-GC also suspected of involvement in the current mess.

-Of course, the 2005 events PRE-DATE the July 2006 war, and the subsequent deployment of the army to the South (and later downtown). IOW, the army was NOT overstretched back then.

-Note that two years ago in 2005, the national dialogue group had UNANIMOUSLY given (or was about to give, not sure on timing) cover for army action against armed Palestinians outside the camps. Yes, Hezbo and Aoun were publicly on board.

-Seniora/Saniora's words above have come back to haunt him, the families of the recent dead, and the rest of the country.

Conclusion/mantra: Our leaders always take forever, wait for several deaths instead of one or none, and finally decide to act when it is too late.

I am not saying early action would have prevented everything we are seeing now. However, it sure would have made it more difficult for our enemies, and would have made them, and their hired hands, think twice before attacking.

******************
PS. Sorry for the re-post, but things do not happen in a vacuum. So yeah, I repeat myself. What's new under your sun?

Fateh el-Islam: Objectives (Part II)

2007-06-02T09:10:00.000-04:00

In an interview to L’Orient-LeJour MP and Minister Ahmad Fatfat talked about Fateh el-Islam (or Fatah, FI herein). See Part I here for the start of the interview.

From the interview with Michel Hajji-Georgiou [Sorry no link, L’Orient’s stories are accessible for just one day. It’s the June 1, 2007 issue, translation is mine.]

Fatfat:

Their (FI) objective was to destabilize the country to serve Syria. They spread out throughout the city of Tripoli in a matter of minutes, this means they were prepared. They had a plan to control the city [Lebanon’s second largest] and then the rest of the North.

FI was about to take over Tripoli and then the rest of the North and hold it? I don’t believe 300 guys can do that. Military experts please enlighten me.

If they could have controlled the Qalamoun village, where they set up the first roadblock, the whole of the Sunni North would have fallen under their control. However the Lebanese authorities took them by surprise and they had to reveal their plans.

The “surprise” part is a joke Ahmad, right? You funny guy, you.

[Fatfat then speculates] that FI wanted to establish an emirate in the region. They had a large amount of weapons and wanted to send a political message that the Lebanese government is not in control, and that Syria is needed (again) to restore order.

I don’t know about “emirate” but the rest is self-evident.

Fellow blogger Mustafa of Beirut Spring blogged on this under “Busted”. I am glad FI was belatedly “busted”, though I won’t count my chickens before they hatch. And I maintain the government acted late, as usual (see Part I).

However, there are many aspects of Fatftat’s analysis that I find very disturbing.

-There is an aura of “unseriousness” in Fatfat’s account. Granted he is not the most responsible spokesman, but this is national security and our officials sound like minor league players (not credible, not much evidence, why no action earlier etc)

-A group, we were first told numbered 50, then 150-200, is now put at 300 before we get action beyond the usual “monitoring”. See previous post, about government tracking, then monitoring, then postponed action, then they kill 17 Lebanese soldiers before the army actually moves...

-Enough with the stupid monitoring and gathering information on such groups. Arrest them or shoot them when they are still numbering 10 guys. Then, and only then, figure out who is behind them and what their purpose is.

-The government probably did the same thing with Jund el-Sham in the southern camp of Ein el-Helweh camp. What the hell is the government monitoring?

These groups are armed and dangerous thugs who have an agenda opposed to that of the Lebanese government, people, and state. I can tell you that from my armchair at home. Do we need to monitor them for 2 years, watch them grow to 300, and let them take over large areas before we figure out that their activities go beyond organizing Saturday night dances?

Fateh el-Islam: Insider View (Part I)

2007-06-02T00:28:00.000-04:00

How the Lebanese government works (or rather does not), courtesy of Minister and MP Ahmad Faftat.

In an interview to L’Orient-LeJour Ahmad Fatfat said quite a bit about Fateh el-Islam (FI herein), the group at the heart of the current fighting in the Nahr el-Bared camp, near Tripoli.

Fatfat is not just anyone. He is full-fledged minister (Youth and Sports) in the current Saniora/Seniora cabinet. Furthermore, he was the interim minister of the INTERIOR for about a year, until very recently and when Fatah el-Islam (FI) appeared on the radar screens.

From the interview with Michel Hajji-Georgiou (Fatfat is in part reacting to accusations of having gone easy on such groups):

[Sorry no link, L’Orient’s stories are accessible for just one day. It’s the June 1, 2007 issue, translation is mine.]

-Fatfat (and security officials) started tracking the FI group back in October-November 2006.

-Chaker Absi (head of the group) comes in from Syria, associates with Fateh el-Intifada in the Beddawi camp (next to Bared). The new group fights with local Hamas, becomes Fateh el-Islam (FI) and moves north to Nahr el-Bared where they take over the camp from Fateh Intifada and get their hands on stashes of weapons.

-At that point authorities were between two theories: FI is a Syrian controlled group versus FI is just "another" Palestinian formation.

[IMO it should not matter, both are unacceptable but that’s just me.]

-When bus bombs claimed 4 Lebanese civilian lives in Ain Alak in February 2007, police arrested 4 Syrians belonging to FI who confessed to being trained and sent by Syria.

-That’s when Lebanese security formed a “central cell” (coordinating different services) to monitor the group in and out of the camp.

Why did this level of monitoring start only after Ain Alak, and not when the group first appeared? Especially given suspicions it was a Syrian group?

Fatfat was not interior minister at that time anymore and he says the army apparently asked the police to postpone the storming of FI offices in order to gather more information.

Earlier and fuller monitoring before the Ain Alak bombs may have spared those victims. Cracking down on FI right after Ain Alak may have saved the tens of lives lost in the past few days.

We’ll never know, but these aggressive measures were necessary. We are not formally in a state of emergency, but, damn it, that’s what it is.

Then, to justify the army's strong action, Fatfat says that for the first time in Lebanese history there is convergence among:

“an extraordinary reaction by the army, strong local Sunni support, Fateh support, Hamas and other Palestinian organizations support as well as Arab and international support.”

Please go back and re-read Fatfat’s words.

Notice anything?

There is no Lebanese government and no Lebanese people. It's Sunni support, and Palestinian this and international that. This from the government trying to rebuild the Lebanese NATION and its STATE.

Four people going to work by bus were killed in Ain Alak. FI starts hostilities against the army by killing 17 unsuspecting (sleeping?) soldiers. And we can only act against this scum of the earth because of Sunni local support and Palestinian approval etc???

We have gotten to this point BECAUSE visionless/coward governments were sovereign neither over their decisions nor over their lands.

I wish the army a swift victory and I hope it gains respect and uses it. And I sure hope to God that next time the government/army need to act, they don't have to wait for Mercury to be in Gemini nor for anyone's approval, local or foreign.

The Bad News Behind The Bad News

2007-05-22T06:48:00.000-04:00

Definition of madness: Doing the same thing, over and over, and expecting a different result.

Catastrophes keep raining on Lebanon and the authorities keep responding by doing the same things and by saying the same things.

At the very least two of those things must change:

1) Officialdom has to be held accountable before and after the fact, a couple of examples:

Saniora/Seniora has been lax on these Fatah-el-Islam scum, and before on Jund-el-Sham and others. Why? The army and government were threatened and attacked several times before the recent Nahr el-Bared attack: there was Saida/Ein-el-Helweh, Syrian border, Naameh etc. Yet nothing from the authorities.

So Naharnet today:

Heavy artillery and machine gun fire boomed around Nahr al-Bared on Tuesday as Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's government authorized the army to finish off Fatah al-Islam militants holed up inside the northern Palestinian refugee camp

OK. So Milquetoast dithers for years, is forced to find his nuts for a couple of hours, and shortly thereafter we get, tada:

PLO representative Abbas Zaki said after the meeting that Palestinian factions, in collaboration with Saniora's government, were in the process of "setting out mechanisms to contain" the fighting between the army and Fatah al-Islam.

""Mechanism to contain"? Contain what? The genie in the bottle? My vote goes AGAINST "containment" and FOR: "we shall shell the crap out of you until you are all dead or you surrender unconditionally, and let that be a lesson to all others thinking of futzing around with our security".

Other example. Moron-in-Chief Lahoud tells us at every opportunity that his crown achievement is a strong army capable of protecting the nation. Now we find that the army needs help to deal with 150-200 thugs.

From Naharnet:

Economy Minister Sami Haddad, in an interview with CNN, urged world help to the Lebanese forces "both logistically and with military equipment" in order to win the battle against Fatah al-Islam.

Good job Lahoud, 9 years in power, 3 unconstitutional, strengthening our 70,000-plus army and we still need help with 200 freaks who slipped in under your army's nose.

2) Lebanese officials have to stop subjecting their policies/rhetoric/persona to Palestinian/Arab priorities.

You have to start asserting clearly and loudly that Lebanese matters prime ALL. If you are shy about saying "Lebanese OVER Palestinian matters" in you own country then GO HOME, or go work in the camps, or go get a useless job with the Arab League, or better yet plain go to hell.

Government Spokesman Ghazi Aridi:

Speaking after a government meeting late Monday, Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said the cabinet stressed the "need to end the terrorist phenomenon that is alien to the values and nature of the Palestinian people."

and

"This phenomenon which attacked the Lebanese army and other security forces is harmful to all of Lebanon, its people, security and stability, and is a permanent threat to the Palestinian people," he added.

"Harmful"? They're attempting to overthrow YOUR government and destroy you as a state you fool.

And Ghazi, please, pretty please, can't you people pee without lecturing us on Palestine? Is that why you waited forever to act? It was only a threat to Lebanon before and now it's a threat to the Palestinians?

Some think I make a big deal out of this but attitudes matter. If you are going to apologize for defending yourself, you've already lost.

Yallah, we're still on square one.

Where Have All the Bloggers Gone?

2007-05-15T14:31:00.000-04:00

When I check my old bookmarks, and links, it’s depressing. Most of the older active Lebanese blogs have turned cold silent or are blogging at a snail’s pace.

Perpetual Refugee, Ecce Libano and Vox blogged last in December 2006.

December 2006, last entry by Raja and Doha at Lebanese Bloggers who won’t bother telling us that they are OK or why they faded.

Lazarus at Letters Apart formally shut down his blog in January 2007 (new blog now Laz?).

Charles Malik at Lebanese Political Journal, one of the most prolific Lebanese bloggers, shut down his blog, came back for a couple of posts in April and since then: nothing. In fairness, Charles posted an explanation at the time.

Lebanese Abroad last posted in December 2006. Thinkingman, the blogger there, was I believe the founder of openlebanon.org, which used to be the leading portal for Lebanese blogs. That portal has gone wacko with the updates (and my mails to them have gone unanswered).

Even the Lebanese Bloggers Forum where tens of bloggers posted (with variable quality) appears to have slowed down and seems less politically focused.

Of course, some newer blogs have entered the fray (Blacksmiths, Voices on the Wind etc), and some of the old stalwarts are alive and kicking Tony of Across-the-Bay (after a lull), Mustapha at the revamped Beirut Spring, and Abu Kais at Beirut-Beltway. Beltway is where the discussion seems to be nowadays. Keep it up fellows.

I can’t say I am surprised at this drop in activity. We all have lives, and the barrage of bad news from Lebanon atop the sheer bad faith of the players over there is just overwhelming.

Here’s hoping that we hear back from most of you, or at least drop us a line here below or on your blog to let us know you’re OK.

Ziads Case: Appoint ONE spokesperson

2007-04-29T10:10:00.000-04:00

PM Seniora/Saniora just said the authorities are “close” to finding the killers of the two Ziads (Ziad Ghandour and Ziad Qabalan). Two days ago, his own Defense Minister said that the killers are “known”.

OK, maybe they “know” but have yet to “find” them. Nevertheless, this is the kind of crap that keeps the worst rumors afloat, and does not gain the government badly needed respect.

Furthermore, Saniora and other officials express themselves via leaks, private interviews and press releases. For stupid leaks by the police, see my previous post on this horrible crime. It is high time we adopted, on vital matters, western/anglo style press conferences.

We need a high ranking official, in this case the PM himself, or a Minister (Justice Rizk or Interior Sabeh), to be the point man on the case.

This senior point man needs to be out in public, live, in prime time every day to update us OFFICIALLY AND CREDIBLY on what is known and what is not, and to ANSWER questions from the press.

There is no better confidence/respect builder than a high level official looking the camera/people in the eye and being forward. Unreadable/unread press statements from different offices is useless, if not counterproductive.

To repeat, when 2 (or more) government people say different things, the rumormongers have a filed day.

Furthermore, people need to know exactly what progress is being made. The we’ll-tell-you-when-it’s-all-solved thing, after 56244 sterile investigations, does not work any more.

Well, that’s my easy way for officials to gain credibility and respect, calm spirits, and offer more accountability.

It’s simple and the benefits are huge compared to current practice. There is no downfall, and no one will argue its constitutionality, and no UN resolution required. Think they’ll do it?

Two Ziads Horror: A Few Thoughts

2007-04-27T13:15:00.000-04:00

I pray the horror stops. I hope people, low and high, come to their senses.

We all know the big things/reasons for the open ended crisis: incompetent and/or criminal leaders supported by a lame citizenry, no rule of law etc.

Before any of that changes, the little things underneath need to change, the attitudes and the culture need to start moving. I see no signs.

--The Press

The nation is shocked, according to As-Safir. Yes it is. But what will the nation do with this shock and outrage?

Al Balad titled: "Lebanon unites around the blood of the two martyrs"

These are the little things I am talking about. Stop already with this martyr bullshit. Did the young man Ziad Qabalan (RIP), and the 12-year old child Ziad Ghandour (RIP) die willingly in the furtherance of a cause? Do we know that? What cause? Has the recent version of "martyrdom" a la Hezbo, Hamas, and al-Qaeda been a positive in the Arab/Lebanese culture? (Al Balad also irresponsibly published horrible pictures of the 2 bodies on page-one)

At best, that is a sick way to say that people who died horribly and in vain, did not. At worst, it perpetuates a sick culture of misplaced sacrifice and death that is dangled before the eyes of the young and the gullible.

--Police Work Standards (from Naharnet)

Police officers, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said their preliminary suspects were Shiites.

The police are NOT supposed to talk to the media. However, when the police idiots decide to break their rule and reveal something, they reveal only one thing: NOT the motive, NOT the name, NOT the age of the suspects. No, only that they were Shiites/Shia. Is the police plain stupid or is the police trying to stir up sectarian strife? (Or is it both?)

--Defense Minister Murr (also Naharnet)

Defense Minister Elias Murr said suspects in the crime "are known. We are chasing them and we hope to arrest them."

You "hope"? Here we go again, a top official says the authorities "know", and "are chasing" but only "hope" to arrest them. Oops sorry Elias, I forgot. That's right, we have all these neighborhoods where the mighty Lebanese army won't go. Hell, even the guys who tried to kill YOU are vacationing there. A real confidence booster to the nation and to a threatened people.

Murr said that the two may have been killed in revenge for the death of Shamas.

Murr said Shamas' relatives had fled their homes, reinforcing suspicions they may be behind the killings.

If all of that is clear (big if), why not have a press conference right now?

Announce who the suspects are and declare out loud that any leader, family, mosque, church, clan, tribe or bordello that will stand in the way of the arrests will be leveled to the ground. This is a national security threat of the highest degree and people know it. And if the stupid army cannot handle a frigging family clan or won't enter some camp, let them all go shoot themselves, starting with their commander in chief Lahoud.

As to the question: what should Lebanon do with its shock and outrage? I think every parent/citizen in the country should demand answers in 5 days or less. Barring that, everyone who knows a child should march on the offices/homes of Lahoud, Berri, and Seniora to rip their freaking hearts out, before turning on lower-level officials.

12-year old Ziad Ghandour is every innocent child who died since 1975, and every child who will die if civil war is rekindled. If real fear of civil war and child murder cannot motivate the Lebanese to action, nothing ever will.

Election: The 2/3 Berri/Aoun Lie

2007-04-18T16:34:00.000-04:00

Speaker Berri/Berry: I will convene parliament on September 25 to elect a new president. (Daily Star)

Berri minion Bazzi, Hezbo’s Raad, Aoun and his minions: the election requires 2/3 of the 128 MPs to be held (a lie or legal ignorance, you choose). (Naharnet)

This transparent good-cop/bad-cop routine is what passes for brilliant maneuvering in moronic Lebanese politics. And it may well look brilliant given the continued haplessness of M14, Seniora/Sanioura and Saad Hariri. Yes, there is the occasional repartee (Joumblatt, Geagea etc) but that is nowhere near enough. The opposition* is in the driver seat and M14 keeps playing catch-up.

Speaker Berri is taking flak and pressure for paralyzing parliament. The real goal of course is to sink the presidential election (after the tribunal). And while the opposition managed to taint the legality of the current government, there is no excuse whatsoever for delegitimizing the duly elected parliament. Nabih Berri knows it too well.

So Berri comes out and says the above, which:

a) changes the subject from his appalling dereliction of duty

b) makes him look like he’s impartial and doing his job

Then 5 minutes later, if not before, Amal/Hezbo/Aoun flunkies come out to tell us that the constitution requires a 2/3 quorum to hold the presidential election. I.e. 85 MPs out of 128. Of course the “opposition” has 1/3 of the MPs and therefore could block the election by not showing up. Or so they claim.

Amal MP Bazzi:

Bazzi said the legislative will convene based on a quorum of two-thirds of MPs to elect a new head of state to replace President Emile Lahoud [….]

Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil:

"The text [of the Constitution] is clear concerning the need for a two-thirds majority in order to convene the session [of Parliament]," Khalil added.

MP Michel Aoun is on record with the same gibberish.

IANAL** but here’s Article 49 of the constitution (in translation):

The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two-thirds majority of the Chamber of Deputies. After a first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient.

Clearly “2/3 majority” and “absolute majority” in sentence one and two refer to the same THING: the margin needed to ELECT. Not a margin needed to HOLD the election.

Furthermore, the original Article 49, prior to 1927 said:

The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and a two-thirds majority of the total votes of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies joined in a Parliamentary Assembly. After the first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient. (Bold mine)

Hear that? 2/3 of the votes. Yes, everything was better in the 20’s and they knew how to write a constitution back then. It seems the constitution got worse with every revision (thanks Syria, Saudi and our own idiots).

First amendment to Article 49, in 1927 read:

The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and a two-thirds majority of the total votes of the Chamber of Deputies. After the first ballot, an absolute majority shall be sufficient.

Amended in 1929, the part in question stated the same. (The presidential term was changed from 3 years to 6 years.)

Call me crazy but for those who want to see, Article 49 and its history are crystal clear, even to people with no legal background. As for liars, cheats and plain idiots, I cannot vouch.

M14 needs to stop this 2/3 baloney in its tracks, right now.

Everyone should be in on this, 24/7 and until after the election, to win the PR battle. By everyone, I mean MPs, legal and constitutional experts, the constitutional council, the religious heads, the chamber of commerce etc.

Pressure and ridicule should be heaped non-stop on the naysayers and on their dubious legal experts. The presidential election is in November and again M8 is grabbing the initiative and is ahead in the PR battle.

In the meantime Seniora is releasing accounting reports to prove to Hezbo that his government is sending Dahieh more money than Hezbo says, or some such nonsense. Fouad, that's not not going to sway Nasrallah and his lunatics. Focus on the ball.

------------------------------------------
*Opposition is a misnomer. Oppositions play by the rules. M8 is an insurgency.

**IANAL: Net lingo, could not resist, for “I am not a lawyer”

April Fools: Early and Many

2007-03-31T10:33:00.000-04:00

While our government, country and people have become a laughing stock, and a boring one at that, our local clowns are treating us to early April fools.

PM Saniora/Seniora sends the international tribunal papers to the paralyzed-dysfunctional parliament. Thanks to Nabih Berri/Berry, no one is there to receive the papers.

In that action, Naharnet sees machismo and cunning on the part of Milquetoast Saniora and titles: Saniora corners Berri over International Tribunal. Not exactly King Leonidas of Sparta. Anyone impressed, besides the Nahar guys?

Berri refuses to receive any documents referred to Parliament by the Saniora government which [sic] he terms illegitimate after the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers late last year.

Thanks to Saniora and M14's inexistent/inadequate PR campaign, a shadow has been cast over the government's legality. Fine. IMO, the way you “corner” Berri is by moving to the next issue. By pounding Berri on why exactly is it that the parliament is not meeting? Berri needs to be asked repeatedly why, with the other institutions clearly paralyzed, parliament is NOT doing its duty (tribunal or not).

Naharnet again:

The latest move by Saniora opens the door for an escalation of the political confrontation between the majority and opposition.

“Opens the door for an escalation”? I think we've gone well beyond all doors and thresholds the past a few months.

The other joker is also an M14 member in good standing: Saad Hariri, who after saying that 19+11 was political suicide (it is) added:

"The majority [M14] will exercise its right through the constitution…the other side shouldn't think that we are incapable or we can't hold a government or parliament session," he said.

Bwaahaahhhahhha!

M14 will “exercise its right”? How so? And why only now? Reminds me of President Lahoud who, upon taking oath of office eons ago, promised us rule-of-law in 1998 and in 2004 and several times in-between, claiming each time “This time, I really, really, mean it”.

You can "hold a parliament" session? OK Saad, hold one.

“The other side shouldn’t think we are incapable”? Sorry Saad but why shouldn’t they?

Both you and Saniora are incapable. When the Syrians left and the new government was being formed, you had a small window of opportunity for action. You blew it.

You can’t give your opponents the initiative for two years and then tell me that, soon, one day, for real now cuz-we-mean-it, you are going to wake up and make the necessary decisions. Too late. That train has left the station. The horse has fled the barn. The toothpaste is out of the tube, since you and Saniora are so fond of clichés.

Stop talking about acting. Act or shut up. And for the love of God, stop traveling like morons from one capital to the next.

Stop focusing on lost battles. Focus on the battles you have not lost yet, but are about to lose: parliament’s current legality, and much more importantly the presidential election. Right now, it looks like there won't be one.

M8 and Aoun are already trumpeting their false interpretations of the constitutional rules in order to sabotage the presidential election. M14 needs to revive the constitutional council and/or have a slew of impressive constitutional experts blasting away at M8, RIGHT NOW and daily until the election.

Yes, I’ve seen a couple of things by constitution experts Hassan Rifai and Salah Honein. However M14 needs more experts and it needs to keep blasting away, lest we end up with two presidents in November.

In Praise of Fneish

2007-03-12T09:37:00.000-04:00

Here’s a story we don’t see enough in the press (Daily Star March 12, 2007). If this story is true, no one spoke on record, then Minister Fneish deserves praise for his role at the Energy Ministry while PM Seniora/Sanioura and M-14 deserve further contempt.

According to the story, before his resignation, Hezbollah Minister Fneish had started/attempted to cut corruption in his department by slashing inflated salaries of do-nothings at the ministry. From the Daily Star, here’s a description of the unit Fneish started to rein in:

The activity of the unit was limited to importing fuel […SNIP…], and the majority of the staff were paid between $3,000 and $5,000 a month for what an informed source described as "clocking in and out of the office."

In addition to bloated wages, the source added, employees of the unit benefited from unjustified government benefits and were using state funds to cover personal expenditures ranging from maids to car insurance and telephone lines.

You can bet your last lira that every ministry in Lebanon contains such units. Of course we are very lucky, in Lebanon, if such moves last beyond a couple of days. Here’s the aftermath:

"Fneish decided that this money belonged to the government, so he cancelled their high salaries and unjustified benefits. But in February 2007, the acting minister [Public Works and Transport Minister Mohammed Safadi] cancelled the reforms because 400 of the employees are from his voting district in the North, and even recruited 39 additional Sunni Muslims from Tripoli," the source alleged.

Thank you Minister Safadi, and thank you Lebanese press for following stuff like this once in a blue moon, and then dropping the ball altogether. (Still, kudos to the Daily Star on this one. Please, please, please, follow through guys.)

Furthermore, Fneish also apparently banned fishing with dynamite (isn’t it illegal anyway?) near the shoreline, in order to protect the pipelines and other vital installations. Bully for you Moe Fneish!

But wait!

"I have learned that under Minister Safadi this is no longer the case," he [Fneish adviser Zakkaria Rammal] added, but declined to comment on why the [dynamite-fishing] ban was lifted.

I can only guess: the ban on dynamite-fishing was lifted by Minister Safadi in order to help the eco-system and attract tourists to the area. Right?

The full story (link above) contains further details.

Of course this is bad enough on its own merits: corruption, theft, lack of action and follow-through by the pols and the press at large etc.

However, I think this also feeds into the larger political arena and goes to the political ineptness, if not outright corruption of many in M14.

Here was an opportunity to use Hezbo’s stance positively on an issue, and M14 blew it. These instances would be used by smart politicians to cut corruption, show Hezbo supporters that you agree with them on some issues, siphon some of Hezbo’s support (Aounists and others), shore up your own support. You would also embarrass corrupt opponents like Nabih Berri, weaken him, and introduce Amal-Hezbo friction.

But NOOOO! It’s more important to please Mohammed Safadi (whoever the hell he may be) and his thief-friends, while losing further political support and killing a nation already on life-support.

Downtown Businesses to Sue Government

2007-03-01T22:41:00.000-05:00

In this Daily Star story, an association of downtown businesses wants the government to help; or else they are threatening to sue the government. In my recollection, you cannot sue the government in Lebanon or it’s never been successfully done.

However, leaving that annoying fact alone, the ILLEGAL sit-in in downtown started on December 1 2006, three months ago and these fools just woke up now?

Perhaps “woke-up” is too strong. Maybe they are still tossing and turning in bed. In fairness, I suspect that business lobbies and representatives made noises before, but that is precisely my point. Only “noises” before and still, when forceful action and campaigning should have been the order of the day.

"The main message is for the Lebanese politicians to be responsible," Salameh told The Daily Star. "They cannot leave us in such a situation because they're not agreeing on a certain formula. We're fed up."

It took them THREE months to come up with a gem like this?

Of course, to this day, they are getting nowhere with Lahoud, who actually wants the economy to go to hell, nor with Seniora/Saniora, who missed every opportunity to act decisively and is now doing more of the same.

So maybe businesses never had a chance. But that is, again, my point. For things to change in Lebanon everyone is counting on civil society, and the business community is failing the country as badly as the politicians and our (non-)thinking “ineffectuals”.

The pols have zero credibility and their abject failure needs no further proof. The business community had an opportunity to jump in and make forceful points, not only to protect its own interests but also because these interests coincide with those of most Lebanese: the Lebanese interested in keeping their jobs, stores, businesses and livelihoods. And I am not only talking about downtown; the squat-in is reverberating throughout the economy.

Before I get the typical Lebanese crybaby comment “what do you want them to do?", here’s my answer: As captains of the economy, business leaders should issue statement after statement with estimates of losses in dollars and jobs BEFORE strikes, sit-ins, wars etc actually take place. Yes! SCARE the beejesus out of everyone!. They should make clear that these losses would be the responsibility of the government/political class.

They should try to enlist the support of all the religious leaders, intellectuals, to increase the pressure. These groups should openly threaten a handful of key politicians that they have the money to run strong candidates against the creeps at the next elections. And yes, they should threaten to sue the government, but BEFORE the fact, or after one week, not AFTER the economy has collapsed.

The business community has a tremendous untapped advantage. It can take a position and/or speak in names of people from all sects. Such a message, because non-political, and because multi-confessional, would carry weight with the pols, and the religious leaders, and people at large.

I am not saying that results are guaranteed but such a move is necessary for now and for the future. The political class has shown it has no interest in a solution, in part because each side is comfortable “their” people have nowhere to go politically (save for Aoun's).

Back to our business association(s), they are now asking for business tax relief and other handouts to ride out the current the situation. Too little, too late as usual.

Faced with existential threats to the nation and the economy, and now that many jobs and businesses have been lost, the remaining ones want a few crumbs which is understandable but nowhere near enough.

The government has, yet again, failed to uphold the law. The sit-in/protest is ILLEGAL** and detrimental to specific businesses, as well as to the economy at large. Milquetoast Seniora/Sanioura is still asleep at the switch while getting kudos from many in the press.

The protest should never have gotten to downtown and should never have lasted this long. The government should have thought of prosecuting the leaders of the protest movements. It should now seriously consider removing the protesters peacefully, one-by-one if need be. And if violence erupts, it should clearly be on the heads of the ILLEGAL squatters and their leaders.

My hopes are not very high however. This same or similar downtown association was, only a few days ago, asking the protesters to take their action elsewhere, away from downtown.

In other words: Dear protesters, keep destroying the economy, but please go do it by screwing someone else’s business, somewhere else.

** Lebanese law requires a permit AND an itinerary, well ahead of time, even for a short 15-minutes protest, let alone the crap we are witnessing now.

Fun with Salim el-Foss

2007-02-20T13:34:00.000-05:00

Just when you thought you could not laugh, or cry, any harder, in comes ex-PM, sell-out extraordinaire, Salim el-Hoss, errr I mean Salim el-Foss.

From Naharnet:

Hoss: Assad Supports International Tribunal (full text)

Hoss told state-run TeleLiban channel (TL) after winding a one-day visit to Damascus on Monday that Assad "informed me he is not against the international tribunal and that he is with everything the Lebanese agree upon."

Really Salim, I think tattooing on you forehead; “I am a blithering fucking idiot” would be more honorable and sane than making the statement you just made.

The Syrian Arab News Agency, SANA, said Hoss and Assad discussed the repercussions of tensions in both Iraq and the Palestinian territories as well as security situations in Lebanon and Syria.

Yeah! Glad you had time for Lebanon, after Iraq and Palestine. Plus Salim, you are such a big player on the Iraqi and Palestinian scenes. And of course, always love the they–discussed-the-situation-and-its-repercussions story. Is there a more meaningless description of such useless meetings?

Hoss, who met with King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, stressed that he was not acting as a mediator between the feuding Lebanese sides.

That’s right Foss. You can’t act as a mediator in Lebanon. We have a law that says only foreigners make big decisions and mediate in our stupid country.

He [Foss] said that he asked King Abdullah whether there was a possibility to sponsor an agreement similar to that of Mecca between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ismail Haniya last week.

Every Lebanese’ life long ambition: Having made Lebanon more like Syria in the past 30 years (Foss was a big Syrian ally and enabler), the next level is to aspire to be like the Palestinian people. Let’s copy their political model.

Hoss told TL [TV station TeleLiban] that he will also be visiting Tehran "very soon."

Probably for further “they–discussed-the-situation-and-its-repercussions” hot air (pun intended).

Wlak Tozzz 3a Foss. A "foss" (fart) has a more exciting and meaningful life than Salim's.

Hezbo: I want my...I want my...

2007-02-10T08:48:00.000-05:00

I want my RPG.

Weapons for nothing and virgins are free. (to the tune of Dire Straits' Money for Nothing).

The Lebanese army seized a truckload of weapons meant for Hezbollah/Hizbullah. Hezbo is demanding the weapons be returned. Why not? If I were in Hezbo's shoes, I would ask for the same. If you think that demand is galling and goes beyond chutzpah (Yiddish for Nasrallah) you are not on top of things.

This is Sidon/Saida from a few days ago (Daily Star Feb 5):

SIDON: Wanted Jund al-Sham militants occupied a preschool in the volatile Taamir neighborhood on Sunday to demand compensation for being forced to flee their homes for fear of capture, less than two weeks after the Lebanese Army deployed in the area after a 30-year absence. Around 15 members of the militant group stormed the headquarters of the Children's Library Association, which is affiliated with the Hariri Foundation in Sidon.

Let me recap for the incredulous amongst you. Jund-al-Sham is an outlawed Islamist illegal criminal group of thugs with ZERO constituency in Lebanon. Even Syria would not publicly defend these al-Qaeda types.

The army, who should have moved against those criminals years ago, is still hesitating to take them on. According to Patricia Khoder in L'Orient (Feb 8, sorry no link), the army near Taamir is being spat on and pelted with stones when not outright fired upon. (I'll try to blog separately on this later).

NOW GET THIS: these freaks are fleeing their homes for fear the army arrest them, and want compensation for running away from the law. They then take over a school and DEMAND compensation from the government who has yet to arrest them???? Does it get more ABSURD than this, even for Lebanon?

Hezbollah's demands are very mild by those standards. I am now thinking of asking the minister of culture to read me a book and then shine my shoes while at it. Hell, why not? The governmentS, this one and all previous ones, have brought it on themselves. And I mean going back to the 1960s.

Back to Hezbo's situation.

When the political discourse/culture has forever brought everything back to the destructive and catastrophic obsession with Israel(*) that got us decades of "resistance is sacred etc", with little definition of what that means. We got "right-to-arms" for the "resistance" in the government declaration, and of course Hezbollah is now using all of that to re-claim its confiscated weapons. Now those are illegal under a variety of UN resolutions and Taif etc...

The army and government are doing the right thing, finally standing up to Nasrallah and his thugs on the weapons issue. I guess better-late-than-never, and you have to start somewhere. However, Hezbo does have an opening with the government official stance of Hezbo as "resistance", a reminder that words matter and that expediency will kill you in Lebanon, every time.

Furthermore, the above mentioned demented culture requires that for the government/army to do their job, they need to trumpet that the confiscated weapons will be used to fight Israel . Great! We need to publicly state that the very same RPG found on the truck, not some other one, will be fired at Israel? The gods of Arab political correctness will be appeased and the average Joe will pretend not to notice that weapons, like money, are fungible.

Well at least it's a start. Another flower to Milquetoast Seniora/Sanioura and his government (I am on a roll): According to L'Orient-LeJour of February 7 (or 8) Seniora is trying to get the army an extra-month's pay (for being over-stretched and somewhat doing its job).

Politically that is very smart. It shows support and appreciation for the army and it drives a wedge between the army and Lahoud/Hezbollah. Lahoud refuses to sign the bonus pay because it comes from an "illegal" government and so the troops cannot help but resent him. Good move Fouad, for a change. This is how you maneuver and try to peel support away from your opposition.

We need more of the aggressive and smart moves and much, much, less of the idiotic rhetoric of the past. (More on Taamir later.)

* Note to the knee-jerkers: I am NOT saying "there is no problem with Israel"

The Obvious, the False, and the Stupid

2007-01-26T11:06:00.000-05:00

Is there any hope for a country where the obvious needs to be repeated daily? What does the level of debate and rhetoric say about the capabilities of people and of their leadership?

It’s scary when the wide majority does not grasp the obvious. It’s even scarier when the “elites” uttering the obvious seem to believe that pearls of wisdom are flowing from their lips. And when our "leaders" are not dabbling in the obvious, they are spouting falsehoods or sheer nonsense.

Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani urged all Lebanese, Beirutis in particular, against any drift towards sectarian strife.

"Sectarian strife" is not good. We get it. But why Beirutis in particular O Grand Mufti? Pray tell.

Here’s a genius who would not know the obvious if it bit him in the ass (and I used to be a fan of the guy):

Aoun Says Erecting Blazing Roadblocks is 'Legal'.

Isn't that OBVIOUSLY wrong? I am no lawyer but I’ll trust Carlos Edde on this one. This man, Aoun, used to run the army and the country and has countless supporters who think blocking roads is acceptable/legal democratic expression. How hard can it be to heap ridicule on these people and hurt them in a media war? (Hint, hint, March 14).

When we are this lame, others get into the act too.

The Condi-scending foreigner feels free to tell us:

Rice: Only Lebanese Army Should Carry Weapons.

Condescension is sweet. Even contempt is too good for us and I mean that.

The new head of the worthless UN, heir to Kofi-the-ineffectual:

Ban Urges Lebanon's Feuding Factions to Refrain from Violence.

Tsk, tsk, you Lebanese! Violence is not good. Behave!

Here's another delusional guy:

Lahoud hopes UN will sponsor 'real' Mideast peace

Bwahhaaahhaaaa.

In his letter [to the UN] Lahoud said that no powerful state has the right to impose hegemony on a weak one.

Unless its' Syria screwing Lebanon, of course.

No round up of idiocy would be complete without the old it's-bad-because-it-helps-Israel argument. And so the Tripolidiot Omar Karami chimes in:

"Any Sunni-Shiite strife only serves Israel's interests, as does any Christian-Muslim strife," he added.

Tripolidiot goes on:

"Such actions as those witnessed Thursday serve to destroy the country, after which healing divisions would become very difficult."

Maybe that's why Beirutis need to be particularly careful. They don't have a Tripolidiot to defuse the violence.

And here's a real beauty, President Lahoud again:

"I urge all political leaders to pull their supporters from the streets to allow security forces to do their duty and return security and stability to affected neighborhoods and evacuate those surrounded and isolated in the clashes," Lahoud said.

PLEASE RE-READ the above statement carefully. It's surreal! In other words, he is telling the troublemakers to go home SO THAT THEN the security forces are ALLOWED (allowed?) to do their job.

AAARGH!!

What do we need security forces for, you triple moron, if the troublemakers go home? You and Milquetoast Seniora and aspiring-puppet Sleimane should ORDER, not urge, these hooligans and thugs to go home. Then, if they don't, send the troops to go after them. You are waiting for the law-breakers to stop breaking the law so that the security forces are ALLOWED to do their job?

Someone! Please, pretty please, someone tell me that I am not alone banging my head against the wall.

Beirut Riots: Anyone Surprised?

2007-01-23T15:19:00.000-05:00

Some rioting, roads blocked, and implicit if not explicit threats to people going to work and opposed to the strike.

2 dead, 50 wounded so far, and roads to the airport and other vital centers are blocked with the army looking on, idly.

Meanwhile, trucks flying Hizbullah flags unloaded tons of debris, dirt and stones in at least 12 spots along the highway leading to Rafik Hariri International airport as army troops watched without trying to prevent them.

Is anyone surprised?

I mean besides Milquetoast Seniora and his hapless government, and besides the army and its hapless head aspiring-presidential-puppet General Michel Sleimane. These are the very same people who told us that the roads, specifically the airport’s, would be kept open by the authorities and the army.

Check the army’s web site and the latest 2 headlines are: Army Commander meets US Ambassador Feltman, and Army Commander meets the Skiing Federation.

And please don’t bother asking me “What do you want Seniora or the government to do?” At this point, I don’t want them nor expect them to do anything other than crap in their pants which, by the way, would be an improvement.

What they SHOULD do is another story and that is to take the initiative on so many fronts: political, economic, media, security etc

Very simple example: don’t say we guarantee open roads when you can’t. Say BEFORE the fact and BEFORE the demonstrators are in the street that the army is ALREADY positioned with ORDERS to shoot anyone trying to block the road. Like that, you get your opponents to hesitate and to be saddled with the responsibility should anything bad happen.

But of course when you (Seniora and government) have spent the last 2 years explicitly stating that you would NOT use force, not even against non-Lebanese criminals (Naameh, Taamir, Syrian border etc), why should any law-breaking Lebanese fear the authorities?

In Taamir, near Saida, where fundamentalist criminal thugs are challenging the army AND terrorizing the locals AND are hated by Hezbollah AND action had been cautioned unanimously by the dialogue table participants: we still cannot get the army to secure the area and signal that the sovereignty of the state and its laws are no joke.

If you can’t take on criminal foreign thugs who have zippo constituency in the country, how are you going to take on Hezbollah or anyone really?

Saniora said the general strike called by the opposition has developed into "provocations that went beyond all limits."

If you, the government and legal authorities, don’t set limits, which you have not, people will not stop bullying the country and trampling on its laws. Schoolyard children know that. The opposition has been pushing Seniora and his government from day one of these demonstrations. The sit-in/occupation of downtown is illegal. Everyone knows that and nothing was done.

(To those often misled by my blogger pic, I am not saying everything needs to be answered by force. However force, thuggish behavior, and roadblocks do.)

We also get:

He [Seniora] urged for "quick treatment that would take differences away from the street to be discussed within the framework of legitimate institutions, topped by the parliament."

In the propaganda war, people don’t respond to crap like that “dialogue” and “Paris III”. You have to put concrete proposals on the table to show that the other side is intransigent and to try to squeeze them politically.

You also try to de-legitimize their position and put them on the defensive. Walid Jumblatt/Joumblatt is doing that but it’s not enough. It needs to be hammered by political leaders of all stripes. The gloves are off. Even the Maronite Patriarch, the business community and intellectuals need to understand that it is way, way, beyond late in the game.

The failure of parliament to meet should be used as a propaganda club to beat Nabih Berri on the head day-in-and day out and shame him into retreat (though that may be a lost cause).

Sorry government guys, but when you did not act in Naameh and Taamir and when Mohamed Ismail, the army topographer, was shot dead near the Syrian border, your fecklessness was a clear sign to your enemies to ignore you and disrespect you. And it was a sign to the rest of the country to distrust you.

Same with the judiciary. The fools who could not (or would not) extradite major witness-criminal Rana Koleilat (now jail-free in Brazil) are going to give us justice, on Hariri and all other matters? The same justice-fools who are working still today on the 25-year old Bashir Gemayel assassination? I think not.

Fun with Predictions 2007

2007-01-02T16:17:00.000-05:00

Samir Zaayter predicts blood and thunder in Lebanon for 2007 (Naharnet, full story here). Never heard of the guy but since I haven’t written a “fun” piece in a while…

Fortune teller Samir Zaayter has made gloomy predictions for Lebanon, the Middle East and the world in 2007 including a "Zionist conspiracy" to incite sectarian violence between the Sunnis and Shiites.

Come on Samir “gloomy predictions” for Lebanon and the Middle East? Too easy. Child’s play. Now “Zionist conspiracy”, that’s fresh especially when you get specifics. But then again, the Sunni-Shia thing is a bit passe and probably predates the Zionist conspiracy (unless…).

One of the many mysteries related to the above subject: when Saddam is killing Shias by the thousands and earning their everlasting affection, the Arab media and intelligentsia (don’t laugh) call it “fighting the Zionist enemy”. When the fed up Iraqi Shias and Kurds decide they’ve had enough and hang the bastard, with a little help from Bush, it becomes an act of unspeakable evil fomented by the Zionists to screw the Shias (and Sunnis).

Zaayter also predicted that a U.N.-sponsored tribunal will accuse Syria of involvement in the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri and President Bashar Assad will be pressured into turning in the suspects.

Come on, again. Even George "Slam-Dunk" Tenet knows/knew of Syria’s involvement, I think. No points here Zaayter. Every falafel fryer in town knew of Syria’s involvement about 15 minutes after Hariri died. I am very impressed however by Zaayter bold prediction that the UN panel will accuse someone in 2007. My bet was on the year 2039.

Zaayter's most significant predictions:
Lebanon and related:
-An expected surprise in the council of ministers that could trigger its downfall.

“Expected surprise” is an oxymoron. Nevertheless, with so-many clowns in the council, surprises will come easily. As to “downfall” the council can’t hurt itself much, falling from its current height.

-The death of a major figure of the Shiite community.

Ever since we lost the tremendous Mohammed Mahdi Chamseddine, I don’t know of any “major” Shiite figure. If you mean we could lose Hassan or Nabih, that’s not “gloomy” in my book.

-A coup inside a political party.

There are over 56 (idiot) parties in Lebanon, 194 if you include treasonous foreign parties. I agree a coup, at least one, will happen.

-Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will refrain from practicing his authority, but will not resign.

Too late for that, Berri stopped doing his job a long time ago. That would have been a great prediction in 2005 for 2006, though I expect more of the same in 2007.

-The sea of Lebanon will be full of warships.

See comment above.

-An ex-minister will be implicated in the Hariri assassination.

Let’s talk “ex-ministerS” and half the security services.

-A failed attempt on the life of a Sunni religious leader who will deliberately accuse Shiite sources. This will be a Zionist conspiracy to incite intra-Muslim violence.

The Zionist conspiracy will reach new heights of perfidy as Uri Geller will get millions of Arabs to hurt themselves with bent forks on a major feast, in the second half of the year.

-An Arab country will send Israeli Mossad agents to Lebanon through its airports.

All Arab intelligence services, and Iranian services, and the Mossad, and others have agents and thugs in Lebanon. One of them is president, another speaker of the house. So why is this important? BTW “airports’? Do we have secret ones?

-The International tribunal will convene and will accuse Syria of involvement in the Hariri assassination.

Again I had this for 2039 but I want to be wrong.

-A significant event at a foreign embassy in Lebanon – American embassy.

I hope it’s giving a student-visa to Hassan Nasrallah to go study at Yale University, alongside his Taliban buddy (Downside: he may be radicalized there).

-Nasrallah will reveal crucial information for the first time.

I hope it’s: “I applied and got an acceptance letter from Yale University”.

-A solemn funeral procession in the shouf area that will be attended by international figures.

This is the one I SINCERELY hope and pray is very wrong. And believe me, I am no fan of the S.O.B. Jumblatt.

-A major judicial figure will pass away.

No such person in Lebanon or if there is: a very well kept secret.

-Assad will be pressured into turning in Syrian suspects to International courts.

As opposed to what? Turning in subjects of the Duchy of Liechtenstein?

-One of the four officers implicated in the Hariri probe will not reach court.

I wonder, oh I wonder: escape, release, or food poisoning? In the spirit of the New Year I favor the latter.

-A minister from Zghorta will be implicated in a financial scandal in connection with the Hariri investigation.

99% of ministers and ex-ministers are implicated in financial scandals. Hope they are all charged, starting with illiterate ones from Zghorta named “Sleimane”.

-Presidential elections will be held and Lahoud will be the last military figure in the presidency.

You mean there is no chance our idiot culture of no-winner, compromise-to-death, and let's-kick-the-can-up-the-road-once-more will NOT extend again the mandate of the despicable traitor? Thank God for that. Now if only that nagging doubt would go away.

-Lebanese militias will resume governing Lebanon for a short period of time. Some of those militias were dormant and others will be newly-formed.

What do you mean “resume”?

-Saniora will not remain Prime Minister.

OK.

-The government will collapse.

Follows from the above.

-There will be a conqueror and a vanquished in Lebanon.

As long as it’s not Syria/Iran = conqueror and Lebanon = vanquished.

-Three parliamentarians will pass away.

Bassita.

-Many figures will break away from the Free Patriotic Movement.

Would provide tangible proof that there are sane people in that movement.

-Millions will participate in demonstrations and many people will be killed.

That's why I don’t go to these things.

Happy New Year All and God Save Lebanon.

*******************

PS: You can read Zaayter's Syria, Middle East, and world predictions in the full article linked above. Predictions by better known Michel Hayek are also all over the blogosphere and Naharnet.

Doctrine of Too-Little-Too-Late

2006-12-28T08:13:00.000-05:00

In the land of too-little-too-late, PM Milquetoast Seniora is, on a daily basis, elevating that concept to new heights. Maybe we should start calling "too-little-too-late" the Seniora/Sanioura doctrine.

From Naharnet:

Saniora: 'Door Open' to Changes in Hariri Tribunal

Someone tell Miquestoast that the time to call a press conference, squarely look in the camera and challenge Hezbollah to say EXACTLY what changes they want in the matter of the tribunal was two months ago. Or a few billion dollars ago, or a few thousand jobs ago, or a couple of dead ministers ago or....you get the picture.

What's The Rush?

2006-12-10T08:41:00.000-05:00

Bakkir Ba3d!

One mark of a great statesman is to know when to be patient and when to take bold action or when to utter strong words in prelude to action. Here are two examples of the bold and the beautiful. It may not be "the blind leading the blind" but it sure is the visionless leading the way to nowhere.

Harb: Sfeir Asked Lahoud Bluntly to Resign. Why now and why the bluntness Your Holiness? Lahoud's terrible influence only became apparent a few days ago? Wait a while longer so we can all say again that you are wise and measured.

And, after months of sheer insults from Hezbollah, PM Seniora/Sanioura/Siniora to Hezbollah:

"You are not our Lord and the party (Hizbullah) is not our Lord … Who appointed you to say I am right and all else is wrong?" Saniora asked Nasrallah.

That's great Milquetoast but why the rush? Wait until the Hezbollah guys are eating pizza on your PM desk, instead of in your stairway. Plenty of time to spare.

Furthermore, no serious Lebanese politician worth his salt would criticize anyone by merely saying "you are destroying the country". Because, you know, that's usually OK with many in the country and is not a very convincing argument in Lebanon.

To be really "scathing" in your response, you have to add that what's happening is bad for the Arabs and/or Palestine.

And so we get:

He [Seniora] said Hizbullah's resistance, because of the party-led protest in Beirut, was "losing the backing of all Arabs and Muslims, asking: "Are the streets of Beirut the terrain for the resistance? Is Israel here in Beirut?"

The man can't even see that as he attempts a response to Hezbollah, he is further recognizing their so-called "resistance" credentials and undermining his position. Talk about shooting yourself in the head errr.. foot.

Of course diplomatic language is even worse in its blandness and uselessness. Here's another master of the very obvious: U.S. Official Warns Lebanon Situation Could Get Worse. And another: Saudi King: "Dark Clouds Threatening Civil Strife in Lebanon".

Thanks guys! Without your insight I would have thought Lebanon was doing peachy keen.

Lahoud Must Go: Part II and Again

2006-11-22T21:12:00.000-05:00

I wrote Lahoud Must Go,Period a year ago. Today, I feel it needs repeating and a part II.

In light of Pierre Gemayel’s assassination and all the other assassinations and in light of the death threats hanging above the cabinet’s head: Emile Lahoud must go. Now. Right now, before the international tribunal, before Seniora’s economic measures.

Screw the economy. There’s no economy if there is no country. Plus the economy will never ever take off in the sick, turbulent, violent, unstable environment we are in for the foreseeable future if there is one.

If Lahoud stays, there will be neither an international tribunal nor an end to the killings. Lahoud will obstruct the tribunal and I believe setting up the tribunal requires his signature that won’t come.

One of the reasons Gemayel was assassinated was to bring the number of cabinet ministers down, now 17 down from 24. If the number goes down further (assassination or resignation by threat) the (ineffective) government falls, creating a constitutional crisis and further mayhem. That is why the government is beefing up security (har har) and asking current ministers to leave their homes and set up quarter in the PM’s headquarters.

Why does killing a minister deplete the cabinet? Because you cannot replace him. Why can’t you replace him? Because it requires Lahoud’s signature and Lahoud and his Syrian masters want the government to fall.

Killing ministers works because Lahoud is obstructing. Cleaning house at security agencies and police is impossible because Lahoud is obstructing. The international tribunal may not happen or will take forever because Lahoud is obstructing.

The country is in a deep existential crisis and Lahoud has a FULL (unconstitutional) year to go. Any other country would have declared martial law or a state of emergency a long time ago. Our politicians and religious instances are still playing games with the office of the presidency and its occupant. Of course Maronite Patriarch Sfeir carries more weight when it comes to the presidency and he is no fan of Lahoud. However, like most decision-makers in Lebanon he is totally lacking in imagination and in boldness.

The time for half-measures is long long gone. I am not saying that Lahoud is the only problem. There are many others including whore Nabih Berri who could also obstruct. And there are certainly things the government should have done, and could do, but won’t. Still, dumping Lahoud is absolutely necessary though not sufficient.

If you can’t catch the killers at least take away one of the reasons they kill. You need to name new cabinet ministers and Lahoud is in the way. Granted not many people will be lining up for a cabinet position, but some fearless souls remain and/or some big egos who will love the title.

The gravity of the situation should be brought to bear in the extreme on all, and on Aoun in particular, even if the last resort is to give him the presidency. The alternative for March 14 and everyone else is the return of Syria with a vengeance. And that dear Joumblatt, Hariri, Geagea etc means your days are counted, or if you are lucky it’s exile.

I’ll let lawyers and constitutional scholars figure out how to get rid of the Lahoud cancer. Here’s my crazy idea, especially since the Maronite Church stands to never recover should Syria re-enter Lebanon. The Maronite Church excommunicates Lahoud. He therefore is not a Maronite anymore. He can’t be president. Let’s have an election.

PS I hope and pray the funeral is peaceful today.

But the Army Keeps Busy

2006-11-21T13:56:00.000-05:00

The government may not be able to protect itself, ministers are gunned down, but the authorities are keeping busy, as is the army.

From the Lebanese Army Official Web Site:

Arrests of 96 persons
5-11-2006

The Armed Forces arrested 96 persons between October 31 and November 5 2006, for different reasons related to the following infringements:

Driving cars and motorbikes without any legal papers, infractions to residence regulations, not completing the military service duties, running from the Army, stealing, hitting each other, provoking riot acts, fire shooting, provoking military men, holding fire arms without any license, holding and dealing with drugs, smuggling fuel oil, going into night clubs.

There are a couple of things on that list that are army business, but all the rest are the responsibility of the police. Ah but I forgot, the police are busy investigating cases: Hariri, Tueni, Kassir, Chidiac, Gemayel, Pharaon, and wondering: who are the jokers tossing daily grenades at our barracks?

BTW what is “fire shooting”? And do we need the army to go after nightclub goers?

Maybe that was the subject of Commander-in-Chief General Michel Sleimane’s meeting with the Iranian Ambassador, a couple of weeks ago. The army says: “The meeting concerned the current situation”. Would that be the nightclub situation? Or was that meeting's purpose a broader one “for make benefit glorious nation of Lebanon?”

On the plus side, someone in the country came to his/her senses and cancelled tomorrow’s “Independence Day” army celebration and parade in light of today’s most recent horror.

Gemayel Murder, Investigation, Blah Blah Blah

2006-11-21T12:29:00.000-05:00

The assassination of Lebanon and its institutions continues unabated. Today a cabinet minister and an MP, Pierre Gemayel. We descend yet to another of the circles of hell. I'm too sick to write about this now.

The authorities promised an investigation to find the culprits. Should I laugh or should I cry? Is that getting beyond sick or what? Yeah, they are also "investigating" who fired at Minister Michel Pharaon's office hours after Gemayel was gunned down.

I just offer the usual pic, with the usual clueless security guys standing around not knowing what to do with themselves. Can you blame them when their higher-ups are even more clueless?

Remember Interior Minister Fatfat and his stupid secret letter? Memo-to-self: I am threatened by a foreign country, but it's a secret. Today, he accused Syria of Pierre Gemayel's murder. The time to speak up and show your evidence was then, you stupid idiot. Back to the pic, not exactly a picture of confidence in the "investigation."

Middle East for Dummies

2006-11-01T16:19:00.000-05:00

Once in a blue moon, I read columnist Rami Khouri in the Daily Star just to keep tabs on the dull and hackneyed writing common to the region. When Rami is not repeating some sickening cliché, he is usually busy giving advice to Arab leaders and to the President of the United States.

Today Rami wrote a human interest people-are-decent-everywhere kind of column.

In a US airport, Rami meets a young military man headed for service in the Middle East for the first time. The two happen to sit next to one another for a bite to eat.

After Rami tells us he went to college in the US during the Vietnam War (i.e. he’s been around and knows war), and after telling the young man he was in Lebanon during the war (i.e. he’s an expert on international affairs and war), he and the young man agree that war is often not the answer (brilliant conclusion based on Rami’s deep knowledge of the subject of war and warfare.)

Khouri then can’t resist taking a gratuitous swipe at America’s great achievements, he cites Chinese chicken dinner for $5.95. Now if he did not mean that as a swipe at US culture then he does not know what he is saying (or writing).

All that is innocuous enough (full piece here). The coup-de-grace for me was when the young reservist asks Rami what is it like “over there”, in the Middle East. Here’s Rami’s answer:

I told him it was just like America - a great land, full of wonderful, warm people, but often disfigured by the stupid decisions of sleazy politicians.

Take two seconds and read Rami’s answer again. Whew! Gosh the Mid-East is so much like America that I now forget why I left the hellhole in the first place.

I thought it impossible to be more condescending toward US troops than US Senator John F. (for Fop) Kerry, but by golly Ram-old-boy, you done it!

On the other hand, if this is Rami’s real view of the Middle East and its problems, a few bad politicians, he is an idiot and a stupid one at that.

Stupidity or condescension? Take your pick. My guess is that it is a lot of both.

Yep, the Middle East and the US exactly the same. "People-good/politicians-bad" says the prominent columnist of a prominent journal. Call it “Middle East for Dummies”, or rather “Middle East by Dummies.”

Iraq-the-Movie: Lebanese Cast

2006-10-26T19:47:00.000-04:00

Here’s the cast of the upcoming Iraq-the-movie. To be shot (in more ways than one) very soon in Lebanon. OK, it’s silly so take it with a grain of salt.

Nouri el-Maliki will be played by Fuad Seniora/Sanioura

Hapless PM who believes that peace, love and kisses will win the day with hardened totalitarian thugs. One gets tough with Condi knowing she can’t, or won’t, hurt him. The other claims his Iraqi government’s independence from the US. Meanwhile Nasrallah and Sadr are running wild, destroying any shred of nation building groundwork.

Muqtada “Mookie” Sadr played by Hassan “Divine” Nasrallah

Black turbaned, frequent visitor to Teheran. Don’t forget the same paychecks and the same disregard for human life and state authority. To be fair, one prefers bombing embassies, while the other is partial to bombing mosques.

UNIFIL: US-Coalition Troops

Well-trained and equipped western troops. There to help the locals, who don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground, build a modern working nation.

US Ambassador Khalilzad = US Ambassador Feltman

No comment

Saddam Hussein: Jamil “Beau” Sayyed

Formerly all-powerful and uniformed man-in-charge, or almost, now rotting in jail and telling anyone who will listen: “I am a nice guy.” Many people worry the SOB could be freed and back in power while rabid fans can't wait.

Fiend Ahmadinejad to be played by Speedo Lahoud

Nutty president, and number-one Hezbollah cheerleader. Loves going to the UN and giving speeches. Big idiotic smile suggests he’s just had a vision (or a swim). Truly believes that by merely existing he is doing his people a big favor .

Ahmad Chalabi played by Michel Aoun

Staunch, mesmerizing, fearless foe of the old order and ex-American ally. Now very suspicious of America (who sorta got him out of exile) and very eager to kiss-and-make-up with yesteryear’s mortal enemy, just for the heck of it.

Grand Ayatollah Sistani: Maronite Patriarch Sfeir

Well-respected bearded older religious figure. Suspected to have wise views but when he speaks, he say too little too late, or it’s an outright blunder (let Mookie/Lahoud loose).

Bashar Assad will be played by himself.

As he plays the same “constructive” role in both Iraq and Lebanon.

Finally, nothing for you Nabih Berri Baby. However, since you love getting people around a table for idle chitchat, you can be the gopher on the set. Ya3ne the coffee and sandwich boy. Still, if that does not suit a legend-in-his-own-mind Mr. Speaker, we can get you the Norma Desmond role:

[Sultry voice and madness in the eyes]: I’m ready for my close-up, Mr DeMille**.

**Not the exact quote, but that's one instance where folks improved on the actual real quote. Actual quote is: "All right, Mr. DeMille, I'm ready for my close-up."

Fatfat: Threatened? Write a chain letter

2006-10-21T09:28:00.000-04:00

Thank you God. Thank you God a million times for taking me out and away from my original country of idiots.

I once swore I would never ever again put my safety and my family’s in the hands of the incompetent fools who run Lebanon and its security. And I get daily confirmation that I should stick, ever more strongly, to this stance.

My previous post(s) mentioned this sick Lebanese habit/tradition on the part of our leaders and officials. “I know who stole/killed/bombed but I am not saying” and the sycophantic press never thinks of asking the obvious follow-up questions.

Now, the man who IS ACTUALLY AND CURRENTLY in charge of security has information on the recent rockets fired at the UN building in broad daylight, and information on threats directed at HIM and at the country’s PRIME MINISTER. What is he, Ahmad Fatfat, going to do?

He is going to write a secret letter and lock it in a safe somewhere in case something bad happens to him??????

From the Naharnet story, full story HERE:

Acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat said Saturday that he has put in handwriting "something" related to threats he had received aimed at him as well as at Premier Fouad Saniora.

He [Fatfat] said the perpetrators of such attacks belong to a "colossal security body, state bodies."

That’s right Faftat! Copy the above sentence 500 times, seal it in an official envelope, and hide it well until the next horrible crime happens.

(The other Lebanese curse is that we apparently have to acknowledge that Ahmad Fatfat is better than most, same with Sanioura/Seniora)

And BTW, to those of you who left the country recently, your government which can’t protect its own ass (nor its head, which is which is another story) wants you and your loved ones to come back. And don't forget to bring your lifetime savings with you. They want you to invest in the economy just in time for the next war.

I wrote somewhere else I am close to not giving a damn anymore. I think most Lebanese are getting there too.

Fun with Johny Abdo

2006-10-07T09:11:00.000-04:00

Here we go again: “I know who did it (corruption/murder/bombing) and by God Almighty one day I’m gonna tell Mama on you”. And then: NOTHING.

Here is the story from Naharnet:

Johny Abdo: 'Lebanese Party,' Not Hizbullah Involved in Bombings

"A Lebanese party, not Hizbullah [Hezbollah], is involved in the bombings that took place after March 14," Abdo, who resides in France, told Giselle Khoury's "Bil Arabi" program on Al Arabiya TV channel on Thursday.

Thanks a lot Johny (yes, only one “n”). But really WHO is this “party”? I could not get the original Arabic. So did he say “hezb” (political party) or did he say “taraf” (“group or side”)? Does not matter. How about SPECIFICS Johnny? WHO? WHY are you not saying? WHAT do you know? The interview was on Arabiya TV with Giselle Khoury whose husband, Samir Kassir, was MURDERED in one of those bombings.

I did not see the “Bil-Arabi” program, but if she asked him the above questions, either she got no answers or the Nahar idiots did not report them (doubtful).

He [Abdo} also warned that Premier Fouad Saniora [Seniora] Parliament’s majority leader Saad Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblat [Joumblatt] were "in the sphere of danger."

Just beat me to it Johny, I was about to warn Walid and Foufou. So thanks for saving me the long distance charges. I doubt anyone is after bland Saad. And Saad, congrats on being blander than Foufou. I did not think it possible.

About Hizbullah's demands for a national unity government, Abdo said such attempts are aimed at undermining efforts to set up an international tribunal to try ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassins.

Yep Johny, right again though not exactly insightful. Lebanese cab-drivers have been telling their passengers just that, for weeks now.

He also described Hizbullah's victory as "strategic" and said it was "wrong to talk about the fate of Hizbullah's arms in this period."

Ok Johny, we disagree a bit here. It may be too late to talk about Hezbo's weapons, and there may be a better time. But “victory?" “Strategic?” A "Lebanese" party (i.e. NOT Syrian)? Could you be running for President next year? Shocked, I am shocked I tell you.

Johny Abdo was the head of Lebanese military intelligence at one point, so you would think he knows his facts. A Haririst, Johny fell out of favor with the Lahoud regime in its heyday. Back then, thugs manhandled his wife and pushed her to the ground in a Beirut or Jounieh supermarket.

He vowed then: "Stop it or I’ll tell Mama on you, cuz I know who did it"(paraphrasing, of course). Thank God Mrs. Abdo is now safe in the aisles of (Parisian) supermarkets.

This guy was a top officer and an ambassador, and is now a presidential contender and his idea of rule-of-law is “leave my wife alone?” What about the rest of the citizenry? What about the bombers running loose now? These people talk all the time but say nothing (and do nothing).

If we wanted an I-know-who-dunnit-and-one-of these-days-perhaps-maybe-I’ll-do-something-about-it head of non-state, we already have one.

PS Lahoud, Joumblatt and others also play this silly game. See Stop Corruption But Not Now, Next Time

What's Wrong with this Picture?

2006-09-09T09:37:00.000-04:00

From Naharnet:

Italian PM Prodi: Assad to Allow EU Troops on Lebanese Border

Syrian President Bashar Assad has agreed to allow European troops to enforce an arms embargo along the border between his country and Lebanon, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi announced Saturday.

"The Syrian president has welcomed my proposal to send border guards from the European Union to control the passage of weapons between Syria and Lebanon," Prodi said in the southern Italian city of Bari.

These border guards "will not be armed and will not be in uniform but will have all the necessary equipment to control the passage of weapons toward southern Lebanon," said Prodi, who had spoken with the Syrian president by telephone.(AFP)

Other than the fact that Lebanon should be free to do whatever it wants on ITS side of the border without Syrian approval,

Other than the fact that Syria's Assad rejects or minds Lebanese army deployment on OUR side of the border, but now seems to accept some kind of Italian presence,

Other than the fact that, again, UN controllers will be running around with cameras and notebooks instead of guns to deal with thugs (better than nothing, Le Figaro says 500 Italians),

Did everyone, including Prodi, forget that Syria is a totalitarian state where three Mukhabarat types follow every denizen 24/7, even to the bathroom?

Do we need to talk about the BORDER with Assad when Russian/Chinese/Iranian HEAVY weapons enter Syria's tightly controlled borders and airports and make their way to the Lebanese border?

Does that happen just like that with no knowledge (not to say plan) on the part of the Syrian government?

Will the stupid games ever stop?

Two Good Reads

2006-08-20T09:00:00.000-04:00

A couple of good opinion pieces I just read.

First, Amir Taheri makes the point that interrupted wars can be worse than the alternative, by prolonging the conflict for years.

Full article: The Myth of Hezbollah Victory. Excerpts:

One British newspaper speaks of "a convincing victory" for Hezbollah while another claims that Israel "won by achieving most of its objectives."

When all is said and done, however, such claims and counter-claims are irrelevant. The reason that the protagonists know in the heart of their hearts, what the real situation is. Even those who are delusional genetically know, deep down, whether they have won or lost.

The first point that merits consideration is that the world today seldom allows war to do its job to the full.

War occurs when two or more adversaries realize that there are no other means of resolving a political conflict. The task of war is to help the adversaries discover each other's threshold of pain. Once one adversary is pushed to that threshold he would surrender, allowing the war to end with a clear winner and a clear loser.

Nowadays, however, war is not allowed to continue until that threshold of pain is discovered. In most cases, the so-called "international community", symbolized by the UN, intervenes to stop war before it has done its job. As a result, in the past five or six decades, the world has become full of inconclusive wars each of which has bred an even bigger conflict. The mini-war fought between Israel and Hezbollah is no exception.

That, however, is not the case with the people of Lebanon who will have to pay the price of the conflicting claims of victory made by the various protagonists. They did come close to their threshold of pain and were clearly not prepared to see the war continue much longer.

That may well be the only good news to come out of this tragedy. Those who wish to plunge Lebanon in another war for whatever reason may have to think twice before they pull the trigger.

The most pain in this last war was, of course, inflicted on the Lebanese. I am still hoping that somehow that pain will be translated into a debate on the madness of the internal situation in Lebanon and on resolving it. However I must say my hope hangs on little, if any, evidence so far.

Ralph Peters has a good summary of where we are now in the Middle East and in the war on terror, and what to expect next. New York Post piece: Moment Of Truth, some excerpts:

Lebanon, the region's other "almost" democracy, is in shambles, thanks to Hezbollah's ruthlessness and Israel's misjudgments. By failing to take Lebanon's complex group psychologies into account, Israel's air campaign converted Hezbollah opponents into Hezbollah supporters.

Syria escaped the recent fighting with just a few tactical nicks. Now Bashar Assad appears stunningly unaware of his odious regime's vulnerability. And over-confident dictatorships do very stupid things.

[Paging Ammar Abdul-Hamid, you there?]

The region's Sunni- Arab autocracies - on which we have relied, to our great shame - are terrified and unstable. Egypt, the Gulf city-states and even Saudi Arabia expected Israel to make short work of the Shia-Hezbollah problem. Instead, Hezbollah won - and the subjects of those sheiks and kings and eternal presidents have been cheering.

Crucial oil producers on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf grow more vulnerable each day. Iran intends to exert hegemony over the region through nuclear threats and the exploitation of Shia discontents. The world's worst real-estate investment is luxury property in Dubai.

Both articles are worth a full read.

Risky Fad: Siniora is a Star

2006-08-08T08:57:00.000-04:00

In the past few days, PM Siniora* stopped impersonating a "caracon" sergeant, who merely reports the number of dead and wounded, and said "no" to Condi Rice and later went on to shed a few tears during an emotional speech before the useless meeting of useless people (Arab Foreign Ministers) from the useless Arab League.

And now bloggers, friends and family, and political commentators are all fawning about an "emerging leader", a "wise man", an "historic PM".

I think these words are at the very least premature, if not plain wrong. Bloggers know I have dubbed him "Milquetoast" Siniora.

Don't misunderstand me. I believe PM Siniora is a decent man in a very tight spot. I believe PM Siniora is well intentioned and that his tears were heart-felt for the plight of his fellow citizens. However, that can be said of most Lebanese and is not enough to make one a historic leader.

What is needed from a leader in times of war, is bold action, strong words, and vision. None of which appear forthcoming. The government is now talking about sending the army to the south, a welcome move but a move that is a year too late.

When the Iranian and/or Syrian Foreign Ministers contradicts, from Lebanese soil, the Lebanese government's view on a cease-fire resolution, I don't want to hear it's "over the limit". I want my PM to kick their butts out (sorta like Rice).

Siniora, at least, ought to have had the Iranian ambassador recalled. What could happen? Iran might stop shipping us rockets? Nasrallah is going to howl? Even better! Embarrass the crap out of him by looking strong, and taking the initiative. That is how people rally around you.

Siniora has yet to be clear on his government's position on crucial matters, including Hezbollah.

I understand the need to be cautious with Hezbollah, but Lebanon got in this mess by having an incoherent policy, and won't get out of the mess by remaining incoherent.

Here are a few notes from the Charlie Rose interview (Aug 4 show) and his "tears" speech at the Arab League meeting (paraphrasing):

- Siniora: The core problem is/was Shebaa, prisoners in Israel and the mines. That is disingenuous, as he knows Hezbollah is on the record saying that that is not enough, and the Jewish State has no right to exist. I never heard Siniora or Hezbo say "solve these and we have no problem". Siniora may have wanted to, but did not do it. So spare me.

- Siniora: Hezbollah did not tell the government about the attack, so the government cannot be held responsible. Ok Fouad, you are a 4-year old, I am three, and it's all one big joke. (????)

- Siniora: We don’t want Lebanon to be the punching bag for all the regional causes. Then he rants about the Golan Heights and Gaza and the 1967 territories. You don’t want to be a punching bag? Use your head and disengage yourself from the regional issues (to the extent you can). The Golan is a bigger problem for Syria. Why are Syria's' bridges still standing?

-Siniora: Our "Ourouba" [Arabism/arabness] is not conditional. What the hell does that mean? I say it should be EXTREMELY "conditional". Maybe it should be on OUR own terms. That's exactly HOW we became the "punching bag", Foufou. All others are "conditional" Arabs. We're the only unconditional buffoons, with results before our very eyes. A connection there? Ya think? Naahhh!

- Siniora: Let's solve the Lebanese problem (Shebaa etc) and then we can solve the regional problem and have peace. Seconds later. It’s the other way around: Solve Palestine, so Lebanon can have peace. OK I am lost. Which is it?

- Siniora: The protection of Lebanon is the job of the government. Thanks for the news flash Fouad. When is that job going to start? And do you still need Nasrallah's OK for this?

- Siniora: Let's have land for peace (in the region) and solve the whole mess, then Lebanon will be the "last" one to sign peace with Israel. Fine, so it's not just about Shebaa and the mine map, is it? Apparently there is a list of countries, and we are at the bottom of it. (Fine, I don't care, but let's be clear as to why.)

So in my "summary": If not Shebaa-etc then we are linked to other problems. And if we are, then we are likely to become the punching bag, especially if the government is not in charge, which it wants to be, but can't really because of Hezbollah…

Do you get the sinking feeling there is no coherence and we are going in circles trying to catch our own tail?

Coherence and honesty are NECESSARY for a sane successful policy (i.e. where people are not killed). We are not there yet.

And no, Siniora is just a decent man, an incompetent PM who is still spewing deadly inane cliches. By hailing mediocrity and dereliction of duty we perpetuate both.

I hope Siniora does grow quickly into the leader some bloggers "see", though time has almost run out. In the meantime, the stage is still hogged by Nasrallah and his mad agenda.

*or Saniora or Seniora or Sanioura.

Here Comes Fatfat!

2006-08-03T13:04:00.000-04:00

These are the people in charge of Lebanon. Oh mighty God, have mercy on all of us.

Ahmad Fatfat is the interim Interior Minister. Word in Beirut is that he is one of the smart ones in the current government. I'll give him credit for showing his face on TV, which is more than can be said about PM Milquetoast Siniora and AWOL Defense Minister Murr. During the first week of the war, the champions of TV appearances were the Minister of Culture and the Minister of Sports. The Minister of post-Um-Kulthum Tarab Music was a close third.

It was all very reassuring not to hear form the top brass while the country was being bombed to kingdom-come.

Now to Fatfat, from an interview with the Aussie ABC from August 2, 2006 (hat tip Claire, full interview here):

WARNING! Long rambling sentences, but worth the read to gauge the depth of the catastrophic incompetence and incoherence we are facing.

TONY JONES: Why is it, Dr Fatfat, why is it the Lebanese Government and the Lebanese army have been unable to make any headway at all up to and before this offensive began in disarming Hezbollah and taking away its missiles, which are situated on your own sovereign territory?

DR AHMAD FATFAT: It's a very interesting question. Look, you have an occupied territory by Israel in Shebaa. They don't get out, they don't withdraw from it. We have three prisoners in Israel. One of them is still there for 29 years. You understand 29 years in the prison. All the days, all over the last month, the sovereignty of our space in air, in water, on the ground was affected by Israel. So why did we have to have the resistance? We not have the obligation to do the resistance to this all-Israeli aggression. If they want peace, it is so easy. They can get out from Shebaa, they can liberate the prisoner, give us the plan and the map of the mine in Lebanon they put 10 years, more than 10 years, ago and they respect our sovereignty. In this case, it is so easy to control all of the border by the Israeli army and to have a real control and real sovereignty on Lebanon. Basically, they don't want peace. They really prefer this situation because they prefer to make a war against Lebanon, than to have it against Syria or against Iran.

Is Fatfat offering "peace" for Shebaa, a few prisoners and a mine map? Of course not, Israel would gulp that offer in 2 secs. The Lebanese government is on record "last country to make peace" and Hezbo is on record "no peace ever ever never ever."

It gets better (or rather worse).

TONY JONES: Dr Fatfat, it sounds like you are in fact supporting the offensive which began with Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel. You describe that as resistance, do you?

DR AHMAD FATFAT: Sure because Israel is doing the same. Now any act of war against Israel is a act of resistance. It's a war. They impose - they want this war. We want peace, but they prefer to have war. It is a price of the war for everybody.

The meaning of the above paragraph is a fascinating mystery to me. Read on.

TONY JONES: But it does seem clear that in this case, this war began with Hezbollah bombing with its missiles Israeli cities. Now, you are part of the Lebanese Government. Under the UN Security Council Resolution 1559 under which the Syrian army was withdrawn from Lebanon, your government was obliged to actually disarm Hezbollah, but now you are telling us you actually support what they are doing.

DR AHMAD FATFAT: No, no. It is different. It is so different. We have, as I said, an occupied territory. We have a plan of seven points that our Prime Minister presents to the meeting in Rome a few days ago. It is so clear. After a complete cease-fire, we exchange prisoners, we ask Israel to go to the blue line, the border line, we can - so we stop to attack Lebanon and they have to respect our sovereignty. So we accept to have international forces. By international, what we mean is UN forces to control the zone, to protect Lebanon from Israeli attack and to respect cease-fire and the Lebanese army can have the control of all of the Lebanese territory so we can have no more attack. This is a solution to go to the agreement of armistice of 49 because this is not a war beginning now. It's a war of at least - very soon it will be for 60 years. It's a new battle.

The mystery deepens but in typical Arab fashion, after a devastating loss on the terrain, Fatfat thinks he can go back to the status quo ante. (You know like: hey dude let's go back to 1948 borders or 67 borders, it'd be cool)

TONY JONES: Dr Fatfat, do you agree Hezbollah, and their missiles, should have been disarmed in southern Lebanon or do you think they are in fact part of a resistance movement of which your government is part? It is quite confusing.

DR AHMAD FATFAT: No, no, no, not confusing. Until now - until we have occupied territory in Shebaa and we have prisoners, we have the obligation to have resistance. We cannot dismiss like that. We can not resign. What you are asking me is that you resign occupied territory with prisoners in relation to our space, of our water every day? It is not admissible. No one can admit this situation. If they respect the Lebanon territory, they respect Lebanon independencies and leave the Lebanese territory in Shebaa, they leave our prisoner, so no need to resist us or militia or anything. Now we can not except the nomination of militia to Hezbollah. It is a resistance and we need peace. We are working for a package deal and this package deal, this agreement, Hezbollah has partly accepted. So we present it to the international community in Rome and our friends in the Arab world and in Europe accept it. We have only now to convince the American diplomacy so we can have a lot of pressure on Israel to stop this war and have cease-fire. Then we are going to a real package deal to have real peace in our region.

Is he intimating that before July 12, life in Lebanon was terrible and conditions intolerable? Well thanks Hezbo and Fatfatian "tolerators", you took care of that.

You can read the whole thing if you are into masochism. And if you can make sense out of any of it, I'll nominate you for the 2006 Nobel in Logic.

For my part I'll say: this is what happens when you try to entertain a major contradiction on important matters: You sound like a fool and your policies lead to disaster. Maybe after all Fatfat is not as smart as Murr and Siniora who were in hiding the first 2 weeks and are keeping their mouths shut (for the most part).

Those are the people in charge of Lebanon. Lord have mercy.

Circus of Irrelevance

2006-08-02T15:38:00.000-04:00

The number of Lebanese blogs has exploded after July 12, as have the number of comments on said blogs. The quality, on the other hand, went straight down as the degree of irrelevance went straight up.

What do Israel/Bush/Hezbollah want? What were their intentions before all of this started? What are their intentions now? Who are the bad guys? Who are the good guys? Did the Qana building collapse in 5 minutes or 8 hours? How many warnings were given to the hapless UN guys before bombing? Was it a Katyusha or a Fajr or a Shahine rocket?

Who cares? So what? Those questions do not change a thing.

Rally here and rally there. Make sure you rally against war, because you know the other side desires war, and delights in killing innocent children for no reason.

Poets, songwriters and official Arab spokes-idiots are working overtime, bringing to mind the fable of the Arab Prince:

My Lord, my lord, the enemy is at the gates of our city, what shall we do? Tell the people not to worry, I have written a poem against it.

Petition this and petition that. Make sure you are on record somewhere that you are against war, and for peace. Get a clear conscience on the cheap. Lest people think you are a warmonger.

"Cease-fire Now" say the knee-jerk peaceniks who don't understand there is a connection between battlefield developments and the negotiating table. "Cease-fire Now" DEMAND Siniora and his ministers when they could not even demand a falafel sandwich from their own orderlies.

While in Beirut, with minor exceptions, I found the discourse by politicians and by TV commentators to be appalling.

One journalist-bimbo with tattooed-and-botoxed lips (like the war wasn't scary enough) suggested it was OK for Hezbo to take us to war because they are, after all, a Lebanese party with supporters and representation in parliament. It took me 5 minutes to recover my breath.

A moron on LBC (Nharkom Sa3id, not sure of his name maybe Walid Abboud)) spent an hour discussing with his guest whether Hezbo had anticipated the Israeli response or not. Yeah, the guy under the rubble really cares about that.

The same LBC guy then uttered something to the effect that "yeah there was devastation in the country but what about the honor of the Lebanese and the Arabs." I don't know if he was merely playing devil's advocate but he sounded like a fucking idiot. Again, the guy who lost his family really cares about that.

Finally that same idiot and others (and poll questions) went on to ponder: what of the timing of the operation? Do you approve or disapprove of the timing?

LOADED question if I ever saw one. See, let's talk about the timing and the screwing up of the summer season, not that this action by Hezbo was an irresponsible criminal and catastrophic decision.

Of course, other things equal, it would have been better to let the poor Lebanese make a few bucks this summer. However what kind of demented people discuss sovereignty, national security, and the long-term 30-year future of the nation in terms of a 2-month summer outlook??? Next time Israel and Hezbo, it's OK to have your war and destroy the Lebanese infrastructure, as long as it is in February not July!!!!

That's in part how we got here. Ssshhhh, let Hezbo do whatever, the tourists are coming. Ssshhhh, let Hezbo do whatever because things are quiet this week, let's kick the can up the road. Not only that, let's make sure we compliment Nasrallah and his party of crazies at every turn cuz, wink-wink, there may be a few votes for me next election.

Silly intellectuals will bore you with dates and citations and irrelevant rhetoric. Crazy ideologues want to drown the debate and hide the issue with irrelevant notions: 1948, Palestinian plight, Bush, the umma, Kuntar, Shebaa, whatever. It was hell trying to get informed in Beirut surfing the channels.

I know this: Israel had been threatening all of Lebanon with pain and destruction. It finally decided to act after Hezbo committed an act of war (killing 8 soldiers and kidnapping 2 in Israeli territory).

My own ass could have, and did, predict this catastrophe. Why couldn't Nasrallah, Lahoud, Siniora etc? And if they did see it coming they look even worse.

The main fact to focus on: Had Hezbo not crossed the Blue Line in contravention with the 1949 armistice and other resolutions, the catastrophe would have been avoided. Israel was waiting for an excuse? Don't give them the fucking excuse.

Now Hezbollah screwed up big time and it is back to: "Sssshhh" let "them" do whatever because we are under attack. NO. We tried that. It does not work.

How about this, the government denounces Israel and Nasrallah and pledges all sorts of support for the South and its population now and in the future. Also, the army moves into non-Hezbo areas and vacated Hezbo areas gradually but starting with a couple of areas NOW (not Bint Jbeil obviously). The army also announces it will do that for every vacated area and fire on anyone trespassing, including Israel (has to be done very skillfully).

No international force, no waiting for Condi, no talks with anyone and certainly not Nasrallah. Anyone against that (Lahoud etc)? Speak up and go down as a traitor (again).

PS I recognize the last part is not very well thought-out but I think something along those lines is workable. I wanted to include a potential solution to counter those who always make excuses that "nothing" can be done.

Qana* Question

2006-07-31T06:48:00.000-04:00

Just got back OK from Lebanon. Thank you blogger friends who were concerned and enquired about me.

Events are moving fast and I am still under the shock of the Qana death toll, which follows the shock of the destruction of the Lebanese coast, which comes after the shock of the horrific and avoidable deaths and destruction, which was all preceded by the shocking idiocy and cowardice of our political class, and yes our people.

I shall return to those matters another day.

Today it is Qana: the dead and above all the dead children. We are all stunned and in mourning.

One question: how do you think Hassan Nasrallah greeted the terrible news?

* Qana or Cana

Read This And Weep

2006-06-30T10:28:00.000-04:00

From the Daily Star:

Lebanese leaders fail to resolve domestic disputes but agree on need for intervention in Gaza Strip

BEIRUT: Participants in the ninth session of Lebanon's national dialogue failed to solve any of their own country's problems on Thursday, but they did manage to agree that the international community should step in to halt Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip. The Gaza crisis loomed large as leaders of the country's rival political factions held discussions on a strategy against any potential Israeli attack.

I could not, nor wished to, read past the first paragraph. For the gutsier types, here's the rest.(LINK)

Ditty, with apologies to T.S. Eliot:

We can't fix electricity in our own country,
But we know what's good for Gaza

We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men

Shape without form, shade without color,
Paralyzed force, gesture without motion;

This is the way Lebanon ends
Not with a bang but a whimper

Behind The Arabs' Failure

2006-06-26T07:39:00.000-04:00

An interesting short piece and roundup by Amir Taheri in the NY Post. I'd probably prefer to have different or other "success" criteria. The main point of course is Arabs better go with what "works". (Getting to what "works" seems much harder in the Lebanon-Syria-Palestinian arena).

June 26, 2006 -- WHAT should Arabs do to meet the challenges they face in a world not made by, or for, them? Debated in Arab countries since the middle of the 19th century, the question has been posed with even greater urgency since the 9/11 tragedy persuaded many in the West to regard all Arabs as enemies. Remarkably, the answers given today are more or less the same as those of 150 years ago.

One answer, long the one most popular with the elites, is that Arabs should Westernize as fast as they can. Abdul-Rahman al-Kawakibi, the father of modern reformism in the Arab world, saw traditional political, cultural and social structures as the principal cause of what he branded as "the historic decline of our nation."

A second answer was that the best hope of Arabs, indeed of all Muslims, lay in finding a benevolent despot who, rather than spend time enriching himself, would lead them into creating a modern society.

The third answer is that the secret of Arabs' "decline" lies in the fact that they have distanced themselves from Islam. The magic formula, therefore, was simple: Return to Islam, which in practice means imposing the shariah, and all will be well in no time.

All three views share one problem - the assumption that there is an ideal form of government that can be adopted by any society at any given time. The real question, however, is not whether this or that Arab system is good or bad, compared to any real or imaginary model, but whether or not it performs its proper functions.

In other words, what is lacking was a pragmatic approach. Before asking whether something was good or bad, right or wrong, modern or traditional, we have to ask whether it works

.

THE REST IS HERE (New York Post)

Your "Next" President (and Lahoud)

2006-06-17T10:29:00.000-04:00

Or: Fun with Emile Khoury

In a piece by Emile Khoury, in today's Nahar (Arabic, PDF) and L'Orient-LeJour (French, link good one day) we "learn" a few things.

A "candidate" to the Lebanese presidency who is not named in the piece tells Emile Khoury (see if you disagree):

-He hopes Syrian Lebanese relations improve. If tensions persist the security situation in Lebanon would suffer.

-There is a French-Saudi-Egyptian-US effort to help Lebanon apply UN resolutions 1559 and 1680

-The Brammertz report contains clues which need to be pursued.

-If Syrian-Lebanese relations do not improve, applying those UN resolutions will be difficult.

-Only when we have a new president can we move away from stagnation and paralysis.

WOW! WOW! WOW! Does it get any more obvious than that?

Have you had your fill of the plain-blah-vanilla-obvious-to-a-5-year-old for the next 10 years? And so the man thinks he has something to say. OK, but what about you Emile?

Even if it is a very slow day Emile, and you have a page to fill, why not tell us WHO this very discreet man is, and WHAT his ideas might be for the country? Or is the latter also a secret like the candidate's identity?

What kind of candidate anywhere in the world wants to remain anonymous? I realize that Lebanon is a very strange place. However this is getting weird, even by Lebanese Twilight-Zone standards.

But wait! I can beat that. In the same Nahar today another story had President Lahoud saying: "No Room for Judas in Lebanon."

And now, to make myself feel better, please excuse me while I go bang my head against a brick wall.

"We Muslims have work to do"

2006-06-10T08:41:00.000-04:00

Obvious to some but not most. Thus worth repeating.

We [muslims] keep assuring ourselves and others that Muslims who violate Islam are a minuscule minority, yet we fail to hold this minority accountable in public.

[Emphasis in bold mine]

BINGO, one of the better lines in this piece, in the Toronto Sun.

We Muslims have work to do (By Salim Mansur)

Muslim Canadians, as Muslims elsewhere in Western societies, have felt increasingly besieged for some time now, both from outside their community and from within.

This sense of isolation, of being misrepresented and misunderstood, will inevitably deepen as the full story unfolds of the arrests of 17 Toronto-area Muslims on terrorism charges.

But whose fault is this? Let us, Muslims, be brutally honest.

We have inherited a culture of denial, of too often refusing to acknowledge our own responsibility for the widespread malaise that has left most of the Arab-Muslim countries in economic, political and social disrepair.

READ THE REST HERE.

Army Clashes: No More Stinking Committees

2006-05-21T09:49:00.000-04:00

Naharnet reports (full story):

Title: Saniora, Army Reject Setting up a Joint Lebanese-Palestinian Committee to Probe Bekaa Clashes

The government and the army command have refused to establish a joint Lebanese-Palestinian investigating committee to probe the clashes between the army and pro-Syrian Palestinian gunmen in eastern Lebanon.

Good news, no more commissions and committees with the thugs shooting at our national army.

Prime Minister Fouad Saniora [Seniora} rejected an offer by Fatah al-Intifada representative in Beirut Abou Fadi Hammad to establish the committee, sources close to the premier told An Nahar.

Bad news: the thugs are so used to assaulting the state and army, killing people, and then asking for a "brotherly" commission. I can't blame them, given the formation of 546 totally useless committees over the past 30 years. Furthermore, why does this creep even have an office and a presence in Beirut? Ship him out NOW.

The death of Medlej [Moudlej] has drawn widespread condemnations of the killing and given a fresh sense of urgency to the disarmament of Palestinians stationed outside refugee camps.

Stop. For the love of God, stop talking about Goddamn "fresh sense of urgency". Act NOW, Goddamn idiots it is the LAW and your RESPONSIBILITY. And for redundancy's sake, it was also approved UNANIMOUSLY by the national dialogue participants.

After news of Moudlej's death Friday, several hundred residents of the region held a protest march, charging that the fighters were "mercenaries" who served Israeli interests.

Great. But where are the demonstrations all over Lebanon, not just 100 meters away from the place private Moudlej was killed?

Notice the protest is against "Israel's interest". Not pro-Lebanon and pro citizens' and army's security. The death of private Moudlej is barely an issue.

The military statement said the army had identified some of the gunmen who had opened fire on its soldiers and said "they will be pursued, arrested and referred to justice."

"will be pursued" is not good. If you want to build security and a state you need "are being pursued right this minute". And you need that group's offices closed all over the country, YESTERDAY.

Political leaders denounced the soldier's death and the attack targeting the army

Good to hear that the irresponsible morons, who have no answer to anything, a least don't support attacks on our army. Thanks guys, that's a relief.

Moustapha Moudlej Died

2006-05-19T06:41:00.000-04:00

Moustapha Moudlej died.
Moustapha Moudlej died.
Moustapha Moudlej died.

Does any reality sink in, in the land of fools?

And months before him, Mohammed Ismail died. To those with short memories: Moustapha, a soldier in the Lebanese army, was shot in the head two days ago, in the most recent army-Palestinian gunmen clash.

Mohammed Ismail was a Lebanese topographer working with the army. Both men were shot on Lebanese territory by pro-Syrian Palestinian thugs.

The reactions I had feared materialized, and were even worse than I anticipated.

L'Orient-Le Jour quotes PM Seniora saying:

Patience. Let them have a little more fun with this. It strengthens our case.

[I am paraphrasing, but very close, link good one day].

A man puts his life on the line for you and the country. He dies. And our response is "let them have a little more fun with it".

What feeling is the citizen supposed to take from these words? Especially in light of 30 years of similar "events" that led to, or actually were, the destruction of the state and of the country?

And, if you are a soldier or an officer in the Lebanese army, the PM's words must really warm your heart and pump up your courage to ready you for battle. Needless to say, Lahoud, the other zero and supreme defender of the land, constitution and army, was not heard from.

To be accurate, I think Seniora said his ugly inane words before private Moudlej died. But it matters not. Seniora knew damn well the seriousness of the situation and of the man's injury.

In other activities, Seniora and the rest were celebrating Liberation Day yesterday. And Seniora called for:

unifying national and Arab efforts in order to liberate the remaining occupied lands, notably the Shebaa Farms.

Words fail me.

Honorable mention for the stupid irrelevant insulting cliche of the day goes to Minister of Something Michel Pharaon. It was his turn to utter those famous words this time: this incident does not help the Palestinian cause. Michel, next time STFU, you'll look much smarter.

Moustapha and Mohammed, rest in peace if you can, and God help your families and country because no one else will.

Army-Gunmen Clash: Deja Vu

2006-05-17T06:56:00.000-04:00

FLASH: A Lebanese soldier was injured and another kidnapped during gunbattles between the army and gunmen of the Syrian-backed Fatah al-Intifada in eastern Lebanon near the border with Syria. TV reports said that the army laid a security siege on the area at Yanta and Wadi al-Aswad and asked for reinforcements. (Naharnet May 17, 2006)

Prime Minister Seniora's (or Saniora or Siniora) office immediately issued the following statement:

Our first priority is to have good relations with Syria and our Palestinian brothers. This behavior does not help the Palestinian cause. We are sending reinforcements to the army in the area, but military action is out of the question.

Our talking staff and "dialoguers" will be reinforced too. Let me be very clear, they can kill or kidnap everyone in the Lebanese army, we will always respond with words. I hope our brothers understand that, and that this threat will be enough to reach a resolution soon. If not, extending the national dialogue downtown is our fallback position for an even tougher response to this unacceptable behavior.

Finally if all fails, the PM will travel abroad and issue strong communiques from world capitals. Our options are clear.

The above is what I do NOT want to hear, but I am very afraid will be the official response, if history and habit are any guide (see any of my previous posts on Saniora and military clashes).

Hoping to be very wrong.

Daily Star: Lee Smith on Chomsky

2006-05-15T19:24:00.000-04:00

Exception to the rule. In Lee Smith on Chomsky, the Daily Star publishes its rare piece not written from a leftist-arabist perspective. Thanks guys. Let's have more.

I have zero interest and or/respect for Chomsky the man or his ideas. I have tangled seriously, and less seriously, with his fans on other blogs.

The interest I still marginally have in posting this good piece is the big deal the Chomsky visit was in Lebanon, and the good points raised by Lee Smith regarding the wisdom of presenting only one American point of view at AUB.

I am guessing that like in the US, 80-90% of the faculty is on the left (Lebanese and expats). As to AUB President Waterbury, it is no secret he's a man of the left. Maybe AUB is a truly a modern American university: one point of view allowed.

From Gulag U.S.A., a tenured dissident

By Lee Smith (Link to Daily Star, or full article below)

On the eve of his first-ever visit to Lebanon last week, Noam Chomsky told a reporter he would "try to familiarize himself with the country by 'riding around in taxi cabs.'" For anyone familiar with Chomsky's work, the implication was truly astonishing, suggesting one of the great "man-bites-dog" stories in contemporary intellectual history: "Chomsky to listen! World-famous American dissident intellectual will consider other perspectives and facts to integrate into rigid worldview. Washington role as 'mother of all evil' in jeopardy."

His cab drivers must have been reading an awful lot of Chomsky because by the time the Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor of linguistics gave a lecture titled "The Great Soul of Power" at the American University of Beirut exactly one week ago, this newspaper described it as "vintage" Chomsky. "It is the responsibility of intellectuals to take dissident positions," Chomsky said; "This is all the more the case for Western intellectuals who can't blame their subservience on fear, only cowardice."

To be honest, I didn't get to hear this particular dissident Western intellectual call out every other Western intellectual and journalist for not speaking truth to power because I was home that night getting to the stunning surprise ending of Michael Moore's "Dude, Who Stole My Country?" - don't worry, I won't give it away. But I'm curious if everyone was too fearful, subservient and cowardly to inform the professor who co-sponsored his appearance. No? Poor Chomsky, only he could find the tens of thousands souls lost in the Al-Shifa pharmaceutical factory bombing in Sudan, and still miss the petro-fortune buried right under his lecture notes. Prince Walid bin Talal, owner of Kingdom Holdings, with extensive investments in American media companies, started the Center of American Studies and Research, host of the Edward Said lectures that Chomsky was invited to give, with a $5.3 million endowment.

For that much money, you'd think the AUB could hire someone to vet the subject matter to avoid any potential embarrassment. "The great soul of power," a reporter for this newspaper wrote, "refers to the special reverence which public intellectuals and journalists ordinarily hold toward those in political power." What was Chomsky thinking? Oh, but I wasn't talking about you, your highness, you're not politically powerful, just one of the world's richest men, and I'm not an intellectual or journalist, I'm a dissident.

Professor, maybe you and Michael Moore missed it while on the dissident circuit, enhancing your brand visibility, but there was plenty of intellectual debate before the Iraq war that continues to this day, from the mainstream New York Times to scores of books and new media like satellite television and the Internet. To pretend it doesn't exist may help you to market your marginalization, but in the end it makes you not an intellectual but an ideologue.

At its best, Chomsky's political analysis strikes me as though it was written by a sensitive, deeply disillusioned teenager who has just found out from someone's older brother that states pursue interests. At his worst, Chomsky's just a vicious sensationalist, like when he asserted that the United States' demanding Iran cease its interference in Iraqi affairs "is like Hitler calling on the Americans to stop their interference in the affairs of a Europe pacified under German occupation." Is it really like that, professor? Don't be na•ve. Do you have any facts to back up that rhetoric, professor? Don't be na•ve.

In short, Professor Chomsky is the kind of luxury that only the U.S. can afford. Apparently, so is the AUB, which receives between $3 million to $4 million dollars every year in American taxpayer money. If I didn't know better, I'd think that the university still took its role seriously as a bridge between the U.S. and the Arab world. As such, it would try to present a fuller range of American political discourse and intellectual life, an especially useful calling at this time in our shared history. But recent invited speakers and conference attendees like Chomsky, University of Michigan professor Juan Cole and Mark LeVine of the University of California, Irvine, suggest that the only American voices worth hearing on Bliss Street are from a left decidedly hostile to current U.S. Middle East policy. Wouldn't it be instructive to hear other voices? Does everyone, even in Lebanon, think American policy in the region is really sinister? Or is it just every academic invited by the AUB who thinks so?

Here's a strange comparison: In Lebanon, democracy looks like Hizbullah, Amal, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement, among many others. But at the American University of Beirut's American studies lecture series, the oldest and largest democracy in the world is represented by a left-wing professoriate that believes their country has been hijacked by an extremist right.

Maybe this perspective is soothing to the university's expatriate community, which likes to be reminded of how hard it is to speak truth to power back in the gulag, and it's probably a pleasant diversion for American grad students about to head home to train another generation of dissident intellectuals or opt for the big payout in the private sector; but I wonder what it's like for Arab undergraduates who might really want to know how the U.S. works. I sure won't blame Lebanese kids graduating from AUB who having been lectured to by an endless series of tenured radicals if they are wondering who actually voted for Bush, if every American they have ever met says they hate the elected leader of the U.S. I, too, would think there was a secret cabal running the U.S. government. So, how is the AUB educating Arab students at a time when it is pretty useful to have a close understanding of the American political process, cultural and intellectual life?

There are plenty of excellent universities in Lebanon - St. Joseph, the Lebanese American University, Haigazian, among others - that could no doubt use the U.S. aid money funneled to the AUB every year, largely because of its reputation and (Chomsky will love this) the power of its Washington lobbyists. So, maybe there should be more competition for those $3 million to $4 million dollars, which American taxpayers are happy to share - just as long as you give them credit for the great diversity of American political and intellectual life and represent it as such. After all, like Lebanon, the U.S. is a democracy.

Lee Smith is a journalist and Hudson Institute visiting fellow based in Beirut. He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

Who is Imad Lahoud? (UPDATE)

2006-05-12T11:50:00.000-04:00

No, no. Not al-Imad Emile Lahoud (General Lahoud, pathetic president of the republic), but a certain Imad (first name), Lahoud.

Well, well. Imad is somehow implicated in the Villepin-Chirac-Clearstream scandal rocking France right now.

He is supposed to be related to President Emile Lahoud (Liberation), though the presidency denies it (Emile has a Imad relative, but not this guy, stay tuned).

Just stumbled on the story and the two links below. Seems Imad's father was an officer in the Lebanese army. Imad was a trader in Paris and involved in some financial fraud shenanigans. And, big bonus and surprise, he also worked/collaborated for a while with French intelligence.

What is true? What is rumor? I don't know, but sure would be interesting to find out. Any of you readers know anything about this character? Or went to school with him? Please post info.

LINKS:

Wikipedia: Imad Lahoud

Fausta's Blog

"Who is Imad Lahoud?" An-Nahar (Arabic, via tayyar.org)

UPDATE: Added the Nahar link above. Thanks to all commenters below. Many interesting connections, though not to President Lahoud (by blood or otherwise, so far):

Early Arab money and funds (previous scandal), the list of accounts (Clearstream, bogus?), Imad Lahoud's wife is a high-rank civil servant working until recently in the office of the French foreign minister, brother Marwan heads French arms-tech manufacturer etc.

The French press and judiciary should (??) be shedding light on these aspects.

It may be totally unimportant but I am still curious about Imad Lahoud's father? Some dates seem odd to me (see below).

Wikipedia and the French press say: Imad's father was an officer in the Lebanese army, who worked with French intelligence to set up Lebanese/Syrian security services during/after the French mandate.

Ms. Levantine below says Imad is related to Victor Khoury (head of the Leb. army 1977-82). Unless there's a quirk in the story (adoption or such), Khoury is not Imad Lahoud's father and his father is a Lahoud.

The Nahar article, in typical incompetent fashion, does not bother telling us who Imad's father is. Could it be Colonel Gaby Lahoud? Gen. Chehab's famous head of the Deuxieme Bureau (Maktab Tani, i.e. Lebanese intelligence) back in the 1960's. Possible but my guess is that the son does not quite fit the profile.

The curious thing is that Imad was born in 1966. Lebanese independence was in 1943.

If his father worked with French intelligence officer Pierre Rondot around that time, setting up a new service, the father must have had some seniority, in both age and rank. Say he was 30 years old in 1943, then he would have been 53 years old at the time of Imad's birth in 1966. It is possible but a tad remote. And if that work started well before independence the numbers get more unlikely.

Maybe it's a total dud (men can father in their 90s), but I am still curious to know who Imad's father was, and what was his role in the army.

Stop Corruption: But Not Now, Next Time

2006-05-08T07:34:00.000-04:00

"The March 14 Forces have strong clues on corruption nests at the heart of several sectors, and we can share them with the other camp, if they so wish. In any case, we'll have to discuss the matter at length." Walid Jumblatt (Joumblatt). (L'Orient-Le Jour, May 6, 2006, my translation).

The issue is not only Joumblatt (Jumblatt), or March 14, but a political culture that sees fit to make statements like the above without any follow through whatsoever. And a worthless press corps that hears these types of statements and goes back to sleep or to pontificate on matters they barely comprehend, like international politics.

This is President Lahoud about a month ago:

"there is a scandal in the telecommunications file resulting from distortion of facts since the two telecommunications companies operating in the country are not making profits currently and the government will soon sell one of them." He added: "Of course, I will stop this corruption and squandering of public money. ... I will not sign on the sale of the telecommunications firms' licenses!"
Lahoud threatened [bold mine] to uncover the schemes behind the issue which he considered "a scandal that will not pass unnoticed." (Daily Star, March 17, 2006).

On many other occasions when Hariri Sr. or Joumblatt or others would refer to corruption, Lahoud would reply (paraphrasing): "my opponents talk about corruption, everyone knows who is really involved in corruption. If my opponents want to talk about this, I threaten to open those files etc…" Of course the old Addoum-Lahoud-Syrian judiciary was an "if-then" judiciary. Not if you break the law then we will prosecute you. Rather, if you go against the regime, then we'll prosecute you. If you keep silent and do your corruption quietly, then we won't. In fairness the old judiciary was not much better, but this was carried to new extremes in recent years.

Another example I recall, more "abuse" than "corruption but in the same spirit. A couple of years ago, Ambassador Johnny Abdo's wife was assaulted and pushed to the ground by some goons in some supermarket. It was meant as a "shut-up" message to the Haririst Mr. Abdo (likely from Lebanese/Syrian Mukhabarat). Later Abdo stated he knew (or had a very good idea) who the culprits were, and that, by good golly, if it happened again, he would "speak".

These attitudes and statements, especially on part of public officials, are outrageous. And, even if not actionable, they should at the very least prompt the judiciary to seek a chat with the statements' author.

If you are a major politician (or anyone for that matter) in possession of corruption or abuse information, there should be NOTHING to discuss, with the "other camp" or amongst your own group.. The matters should be taken immediately to the judiciary, central inspection (Taftish el-Markazi), or some parliamentary commission.

The press should be hounding you for answers. Parliamentary groups should be holding hearings. The judiciary should be sending investigators. NGO's should be all over this.

Discussing a new plan for the economy, current Finance Minister Azour said that without losses due to corruption at EDL (Electrical Utility), the plan would not require any new taxes. Wanna bet that’s' the end of the story and new taxes will be imposed on a moribund citizen and economy?

Finally, the mother of all witnesses and scandals. Rana Koleilate sits at he heart of the biggest crime ever committed in Lebanon (Hariri murder, the UN suspects). She is also at the heart of the biggest Lebanese financial scandal ever, Al-Madina. The Lebanese government is "trying" to extradite her from Brazil where she was arrested TWO months ago. And for the umpteenth time, where are the editorials lambasting the officials on this one?

I don't believe they are trying to extradite her. Do you?

Short Stories of the 75-76 War

2006-04-14T13:18:00.000-04:00

Yesterday, April 13, found many Lebanese bloggers trading stories about the civil war. And with Ecce Libano adding pressure, I had to blog. Two anecdotes that in my mind illustrate the horrible, the half-way decent, and the touching found in all wars.

During 75-76, when every lull was taken to be a return to normalcy, Nouhad and four other passengers were in a Mercedes-service that fatefully got stopped by militiamen near the Museum (Mat7af).

The militiamen asked for ID papers (which in Lebanon have an item revealing one's religion/sect).

Nouhad tells the story: Out the car window went the arm with the ID papers. In the same car window came a knife slitting the throat of the man sitting right next to him. All he remembers after that is blood and a voice calling his name; "Nouhad! Is that you? What are you doing here?" One of the militiamen had recognized him from pre-war days when they used to meet at a soccer stadium (to root for different local teams). The voice then said: "Get out of the car, turn around, and run."

Nouhad was in no mood or shape to argue. Shaking from his toes to his eyebrows, Nouhad got out of the car, turned around, and ran and ran and ran. He ran until the street stopped at the edge of the Mediterranean Sea, in Raouche.

I don’t know how he did not dive in the water and swim his way to Cyprus. Had it been me, I would have broken all known triathlon records.

To me, the "random" killings in the streets by murderers and/or by shelling was the scariest and most appalling aspect of our people and of the war. Militia leaders all publicly denounced the practice, but I could not care less about their words. Not one of those leaders, NOT ONE, ever caught one of their own guilty men or tried to control them.

A story I remember more fondly, in the aftermath of the horrors described above:

The racetrack (horse racing) had been closed for over two years, when an attempt was made to re-open it. The racetrack is located near the Museum, the dividing line of Beirut at the time. The track had always been a very popular meeting spot. A little vice goes a long way in getting people together.

So after two years of East and West Beiruti unable to meet, neither in downtown (war zone) nor at the racetrack, the latter reopened one glorious Sunday afternoon. There were tearful and emotional reunions.

Later that afternoon, H.-the-barber (as he was known to us) had the word of the day: "It was wonderful, I saw friends I had not seen in a long time. And the best part: no one asked me what's your religion (chou dinak)? They asked me who's your horse (min 7sanak)?"

Lonely Are the Brave: General Aziz el-Ahdab

2006-03-08T20:42:00.000-05:00

For those who remember and for those who don't know, I am getting ready for March 11.

Thirty years ago when Lebanon was falling apart, and when no one stood up to do the right thing, Brigadier General Aziz el-Ahdab did.

It was March 11, 1976; the country had started its journey down the abyss. The civil war, then called "events", was raging. Citizens were abducted and killed in the streets on the basis of their name/sect/religion. Warring militias were shelling civilian areas, merrily destroying downtown and the port, and stealing merchandise in the millions of dollars. For good measure, they also burned what they could not steal. Snipers were killing pedestrians and drivers, just for crossing from one sector to the other.

Shocked, scared, and confused citizens kept turning to the state and its institutions for protection and guidance. All they got was hot air and paralysis from Frangieh and Karami (RIH, Rot In Hell, both), president and PM respectively. Both were unable to solve anything and, in typical Lebanese fashion, none would resign.

Whatever respect these two clowns had, when sworn into office, dwindled fast. Of course PM Karami (RIH) claimed that the army could not be used to protect life and property, because it would split. So he did not use it, and it still split. In Karami's (RIH) book, and to this day for many, applying the law in Lebanon apparently means "taking sides" and being "biased".

The disappointing thing to many at the time, including myself, was the total absence of any position by the army on the fate of the nation and its security. Some officers made noises. Rumors abounded. Air Force commander Georges Gharib had issued a strong communiqué hinting at action if the politicos did not solve things. Then pooof! Nothing further from army senior officers.

Then in January 1976, a junior officer in the army, Lt. Ahmad Khatib took his soldiers and heavy equipment and joined the leftist-PLO camp of the war. Again in typical Lebanese fashion, the top brass had dithered too long and lost control of its troops.

After the very top brass shirked it duties, and after some junior officers rebelled, Brigadier General Aziz el-Ahdab, Commander of the Beirut sector tried a desperate last-ditch effort. He took over a TV station, tried to pretend he controlled his sector, and demanded the resignation of President Frangieh and PM Karami, and called for the election of a new president within a week.

That Ahdab failed in getting the resignations and in reuniting the army, in my humble opinion, takes nothing from the man's courage, honor, and decency. Desperate times call for desperate measures. The man used what was available to him and the gamble was worth it: trying to save the nation and its army.

That the commander of the Beirut sector, the capital city, after 2 years of mayhem only had a few hundred men and no heavy weapons says a lot about the incompetence of the government and the army leadership.

Whether Ahdab acted with, or without, some Palestinian help, as rumored then, does not bother me in the least. (In fact the PLO was really on the side of Khatib). At any rate, times were desperate, the man's demands made sense and people intuitively sensed and supported these demands. Celebratory gunfire broke out on both sides of town, i.e., both factions rejoiced, as did the average citizen. What happened in the next few hours: international phone calls, Syrian pressure, personal calculations etc, we'll never know.

Things might have turned out differently for Ahdab and Lebanon. However, less than 24 hours after Ahdab burst on TV screens, and after countless telegrams of support from every possible professional association and organization in the country, Brigadier General Ahdab stood alone. No officers, no troops other than his own few, no politicians, no air force joined in. The misguided, the opportunists and the cowards had gone back to business as usual, and the country sank further in the abyss.

Ahdab kept control of the TV station for a while. The station ran some of the best programs/debates on the war, possible solutions, secularization, constitutional law etc. Then General Ahdab disappeared from the scene.

The man was derided, and to this day, as "General TV", or "Aziz el-Ajdab". This cynicism is beyond sick. Our culture glorifies, excuses, and perpetuates the thugs and the corrupt that come out on top.

The real hero does not always succeed, but he can be counted upon to do his duty and be honorable, even against overwhelming odds.

Brigadier General Aziz el Ahdab, this citizen will never forget you. You were the only man in position of responsibility to bang on the table and say ENOUGH when the country went mad. You took a gamble. That you failed is a sad commentary on the rest of us.

General Ahdab, Sir, I salute you wherever you are.

No Democracy, Republic Please

2006-03-03T19:03:00.000-05:00

Democracy, in the strict sense of majority rule, is a bad idea. What works, in America and Switzerland and elsewhere, is republican (small r) government. Walter Williams tackles the subject (briefly) in his latest column. The distinction is often lost on many. So it's a good refresher, and certainly something to ponder, especially for Iraqis and Lebanese these days.

Here are a couple of quotes: (from "How to Create Conflict" by Walter Williams)

Chief Justice John Marshall added, "Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos."

And:

Majority rule is a zero-sum game with winners and losers, with winners having the power to impose their wills on the minority. Conflict emerges when the minority resists.

Lahoud: Fly Me to Khartoum

2006-02-19T14:45:00.000-05:00

You are Emile Lahoud, President of the Republic of Lebanon. The majority in parliament has vowed to cut short your illegitimate, if not illegal, term of office. Your popularity is near zero. The parties and individuals who want you to stay, want it for all sorts of reasons, but respect for your person is nowhere on the list of said reasons. Furthermore, your country is facing dire circumstances. What to do?

You decide to go to a meeting of the Arab League of course. (That's the annual meeting of the Arab League March 28, in Kartoum, Sudan.)
Why? Because the only thing you can do is try to freeze time. And what better way to do that than to go to an event where NOTHING happens, NOBODY cares what happens, NO ONE registers what happens other than some overpaid self-important League bureaucreep.

By the way, if anyone can think of anything, ANYTHING, that the Arab League ever did to improve the lot of a single Arab anywhere, please do inform me. Of course, Arab League ambassadors, employees, and other bloodsuckers don't count.

It should also be noted that Lebanon will NOT be on the agenda of the meeting (L'Orient-Lejour, link good one day).
That is standard operating procedure at League meetings. When an issue is contentious, as are all important issues, it will not be on the agenda.
The OASL, Official Arab League Sweeper, will immediately sweep it under the rug. That is, of course, after collecting his salary which is inversely proportional to his competence level. It goes without saying, expensive gourmet meals and hotels are also part of the deal here.

Back to Emile-the-Useless. He claims today that there is a plot backed by the US and France to oust him from office. Well maybe there is, except this time , also and still, an overwhelming majority of Lebanese want him out. That's the same Emile-the-Useless who was not bothered by the "plot" or "coup" to extend his term, after a few Syrian phone calls and several death threats to the 128 MP-voters involved in his "extension/election".

Does Emile believe what he says or not? I am not sure which option is worse, but will contend that it does not matter.

If he doesn't believe his own words, then he's a liar, obviously up to no good, and intent on pursuing a personal and/or foreign agenda. In that case, he needs to be removed from office ASAP.

On the other hand, if Emile-the-Useless actually believes what he says: defending the constitution, standing against coups, protecting Lebanon from (??), then that would clearly put him in the category of the imbeciles. In that case, he should be removed even faster.

Here's hoping that the traitor-clown is gone by March 28, or sooner.

PS. Lest there be any confusion. I would be prouder if Bozo the clown represented Lebanon at that meeting. However, faithful readers already know, I don't care who represents us there, and would rather see an empty chair under Lebanon's flag.

Weak and Inane Talk from the Government

2006-01-22T07:45:00.000-05:00

Story from Naharnet. My comments/additions are bracketed. (From Naharnet, full story here). Ghazi Aridi is Information Minister and thus the official spokesman for the Lebanese government.

[Title] Cabinet Wants to Ban Palestinian Weapons Outside Camps

[I thought they were already banned. The cabinet means it wants to apply the law, a very different story.]

The Cabinet has said it will revive efforts to ban Palestinians from deploying weapons outside refugee camps, saying last week's shooting incident in Naameh of two Lebanese by Palestinian gunfire prompted the government to resolve the Palestinian arms issue more speedily.

[I don't think "revive efforts to ban" is the kind of aggressive immediate action asked for by residents of Naameh, or those living close to Ain-El-Helweh. Those people have asked for the army to deploy in order to protect them. They did not ask for lamentable and lame efforts to "revive efforts to ban" what is already banned. When you talk like that you cannot expect your agents to collect on traffic tickets or on electricity bills.]

"The ministers unanimously agreed over the necessity to implement cabinet resolutions regarding Palestinian weapons inside and outside the camps," said Information Minister Ghazi Aridi following a weekly cabinet meeting on Thursday.

[Blah blah blah. Agreed on the "necessity"? Fine, then what? Implement? WHEN?, give me a date, WHEN?
Further empty talk which projects WEAKNESS and undermines respect for all laws, criminal and civil. Lebanese People, expect MORE trampling on your dignity, law and sovereignty.]

Aridi was referring to resolutions reached before the Shiite boycott of the cabinet, which included forbidding the deployment of Palestinian weapons outside refugee camps and obliging armed groups inside the camps to meet certain guidelines.

[Good. So it is, and was, unanimous, from before the Shia boycott. "Implement" NOW, stop gabbing.]

"Therefore, regardless of the (Naameh) shooting, the cabinet resolutions should be implemented," said Aridi, adding that the incident triggered the government to speed up the implementation process.

[More useless yackety-yack-yacking. "Speed up" implementation? From what pace? One AK-47 every 30 years to, say, 5 rifles the next 30 years?]

Last week, a member of the Popular Font for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) shot and wounded two municipal policemen in Naameh, south of Beirut, causing uproar and turning the spotlight on Palestinian weapons deployed outside refugee settlements.

[Notice they (gvmt. and press) keep saying "municipal" like this makes the assault on the state's authority less serious.]

The PFLP-GC, which is headed by Damascus-based Ahmad Jibril, maintains a network of tunnels and arms caches in Naameh. Israeli warplanes have often struck the town.

[Is the town of Naameh Lebanese territory or some "municipal" outpost? Is there a need to draw maps here, like for the Shebaa Farms?]

Aridi said the government will work on the local and regional levels to secure the implementation of cabinet resolutions concerning these arms.

[More and further and improved empty crap about "IMPLEMENTATION".
"Work on local level" means we have to talk to the thugs and get their permission. Good luck.
"On the regional level" means we have to kiss Syrian-Saudi-PA-someone's butt before we can apply the law and protect the citizen in our own country. If unanimous decisions are impossible to implement simply and directly, what's left?]

"It is unacceptable to continue using weapons against the Lebanese in a way that harms the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people's interests," said the minister.

Therefore, like Walid Eido and countless others, Aridi is saying it’s ACCEPTABLE to shoot Lebanese if it helps the Palestinian cause.
I am getting very sick and very tired of the friggin "cause". What is UNACCEPTABLE is: a government which does not shoulder its basic responsibility, keeps blabbing about it, does not protect its citizens, and wants them to DIE for the cause of a neighbor. To stay polite: stuff it Ghazi!

Can we have a referendum on this? Then maybe our irresponsible representative idiots will find the guts to stop saying stupid things.

Here's a proposition for Mr. Aridi (and Eido) which helps his beloved "cause" and does not kill any Lebanese:
Let's automatically give 50% of your income, each year, to the "cause". You can direct the money as you please: refugees, PA, Hamas. What do you say to that Mr. Aridi? We'll even take 25%. Thank you for your help.

Asked if the government would force Palestinians to comply with the cabinet resolutions, Aridi replied: "We are not raising this option, and we hope to implement all resolutions peacefully to serve the interests of the Lebanese and Palestinians."

Weak, weak, weak. Dangerously weak. "Hope to implement", without mention of force, isn't exactly going impress the thugs in Naameh, or anywhere else. Your age-old problem, Ghazi Aridi and Lebanon, is still staring you in the face.

Our Press: Long Way to Go

2006-01-18T20:41:00.000-05:00

Upon reading in L'Orient-Le-Jour the headline (my translation):

Republican Senator continues his Lebanese tour
Frank Woolf visits Siniora, Aoun and Joumblatt

I got curious. What state does Woolf represent? What committees is he on? Because, of course, our beloved press cannot bother to tell you.

It took me two minutes on the internet to figure out:

1) There is no Senator Woolf (or Wolf or Wolfe or Woolfe).

2) There is a Representative Frank Wolf, not Woolf, from Virginia (10th district)

Senator, Shmenator. Woolf, Shwolf. It does not matter; journalists cannot be bothered with facts. It's the Arab world after all, land of fantasy and 1001 nights.

Like I said: two minutes. In this day and age, you don't need to call the US embassy and wait for a reply: Google, Yahoo, senate.gov, and house.gov would give the answer to a 10-year old who would bother to check.

Yeah, I think it is still too early to expect our press, L'Orient-LeJour is hardly alone, to do investigative journalism. If they get the date right, count your blessings.

*************************************************************************************

Appendix: Full Story from L'Orient-Le Jour January 19, 2006

Le sénateur républicain a poursuivi sa tournée libanaise
Frank Woolf chez Siniora, Aoun et Joumblatt

Le Premier ministre, Fouad Siniora, a reçu hier au Grand Sérail le vice-président de la commission du Budget au Congrès US, le sénateur (républicain) Frank Woolf, qui est arrivé mardi à Beyrouth. La rencontre, qui a duré plus d’une heure, s’est déroulée en présence de l’ambassadeur des États-Unis, Jeffrey Feltman.
MM. Woolf et Feltman se sont également rendus à Rabieh chez le chef du CPL, le général Michel Aoun, et à Moukhtara chez le chef du PSP, Walid Joumblatt. À l’issue des trois rencontres, le sénateur a refusé de répondre aux questions des journalistes.
Par ailleurs, le chef du gouvernement a reçu le représentant du secrétaire général de l’ONU au Liban, Geir Pedersen, ainsi que la commission de suivi de Haret Naamé, comportant les députés Mohammed Hajjar, Alaaeddine Terro, Élie Aoun et Georges Adwan, qui lui ont transmis la volonté des habitants de la localité de voir leur région débarrassée de toute présence armée palestinienne « le plus vite possible ».
Au terme de la réunion, M. Aoun a indiqué que le Premier ministre les a mis au courant « des mesures gouvernementales à ce niveau et de la disposition du cabinet à éliminer toute présence armée palestinienne dans la région ». « M. Siniora nous a expliqué que les solutions seront recherchées à plusieurs niveaux, local mais aussi arabe, puisque l’on sait de quelles parties ces groupuscules armés sont en train de suivre les ordres », a-t-il ajouté, avant de préciser que certaines mesures vont être « rapidement » prises.

MP Walid Eido: Don't Speak for Me

2006-01-12T16:31:00.000-05:00

Do the many mediocrities who govern and represent us even understand the words they utter?
And since the answer is NO, is it any wonder that the country is down a sinkhole?

Here's Future Movement MP Walid Eido on the Naameh shooting of last week. Two Lebanese municipal employees were wounded by Palestinian illegals who were manning a road block. (Eido's words from L'Orient-LeJour, January 12, 2006. In French, appendix below. English is my translation)

MP Walid Eido says:

Stop exploiting the Palestinian cause. This cause is ours, just like Kamal Joumblatt and Rafik Hariri taught us

Illegal Palestinian weapons kill and maim Lebanese citizens. The knee-jerk reaction of every politician in Lebanon: "this is not good for Palestine, the CAUSE". How about condoling the victims and the relatives of the dead before we get into the Palestinian cause? Is that too much to ask? Because you know, maybe you are an MP, or Minister with responsibilities toward Lebanese nationals. But perhaps you wish to be buried in the Palestinian flag like that great Lebanese MP Maarouf Saad?

Mr. Eido is usually a reasonable guy. It goes to show you that when the words "Palestine/Palestinian" are uttered, anywhere in the Arab world, the rare commodities of reason and common sense fly out the window. (Make sure you read his last statement, below)

Here's is the problem. "The cause is ours" is a meaningless statement. Its meaning stretches from "giving 25 bucks to a refugee-helping NGO" to "ordering all units of the Lebanese army to attack Israel right now". And because it is vague, that type of statement helps those carrying illegal weapons.

If you keep putting the "cause" above everything (in your rhetoric, cuz in reality we know it's baloney), the debate will always be "is it good for the cause?": an endless debate, because it is SUBJECTIVE.

It is much simpler and more productive if you just say: "we have a law, no arms outside of the Lebanese regular forces". Then, there is no argument for the other side. Capiche? Or is it too complicated?

MP Eido goes on to say:

Did the shooting take place on the borders of Palestine or near the walls of Jerusalem? Had the shots fired at Lebanese citizens been helpful to the cause, we are ready to forgive [bold emphasis mine].

EXCUSE ME? EXCUSE &#@6$$#ING!! ME?

Have we discussed this as a nation, and resolved it? Are we all on the same page here? Here's the problem again; who says it's good or bad for the "cause"? Who says it is my "cause"? Who defines the "cause"?

Who is "we" Keem-O-Sabe Walid? Don't include me. Next time a Lebanese citizen is wounded or killed, I am not forgiving anyone, even if it is good for the "cause".

I will make an exception though, for Walid Eido and his relatives. Rest assured Walid, if illegally armed gunmen kill you and your relatives, then I shall forgive. I'll also invite others to do the same, just to honor your memory Mr. Eido, but only as long as someone, somewhere, says: "hey, it was good for the cause."

*************************************************************************************

APPENDIX: L'Orient-LeJour's full story:

Eido : « Si l’incident de Naamé sert les intérêts syriens, nous ne pouvons que le condamner

« Assez exploiter la cause palestinienne. Cette cause est la nôtre, comme nous l’ont appris Kamal Joumblatt et Rafic Hariri. » C’est ce qu’a affirmé hier le député haririen, Walid Eido, lors d’une table ronde organisée à l’AUB par le Club des médias et le Club de la jeunesse de l’université. Évoquant les incidents fâcheux de Naamé, le député s’est demandé : « La fusillade a-t-elle eu lieu aux portes de la Palestine ou autour des remparts de Jérusalem ? Si les coups de feu tirés en direction de citoyens libanais servent la cause, nous sommes prêts à pardonner. Mais s’ils servent au contraire l’intérêt du régime syrien, nous ne pouvons que les condamner », a-t-il précisé.

Et le député d’appeler à mettre un terme au chaos provoqué par une présence palestinienne armée en dehors des camps et à réorganiser le port d’armes à l’intérieur.

Fun with Bashar Assad, Baby Doc

2006-01-07T10:37:00.000-05:00

Excerpts from the latest interview with Syrian president Baby Eye-Doc Bashar Assad. As usual with my "fun" pieces, my comments/additions are bracketed. (From Naharnet, full story here)

[Title: Assad] Says Lebanon Faces Civil Strife, Thumbs his Nose at U.S.

Lebanon's legacy of political turmoil offers fertile ground for a new bout of "Iraq-style sectarian schisms," Syrian President Bashar Assad said in a defiant interview that blamed Israel for Rafik Hariri's assassination.

[But Mr. President, you make "sectarian schisms" sound like a bad thing. Didn't your father use those tensions and schisms to enter Lebanon and rule it, his greatest achievement?

Don't you use similar tensions today in Iraq? Helping and supporting terrorists blow up 50-60 Iraqi Shias a day should be another winner for your regime, if not with the Iraqi people at least with the confused Al-Jazeerah viewers. That would be those wired sophisticates in the Arab world who think that Israel killed Hariri.

But forgive me, for a second, I forgot that you too are a sophisticated "wired" guy. After all, we heard that you did have a dial-up internet connection those 6 months you were being "western educated" in London.]

"Lebanon's history of instability dates back to hundreds of years, and this is being exploited now to push it into sectarian strife similar to what is happening now in Iraq," Assad was quoted as saying.

[Yep, see above for a reminder of who took advantage of sectarian strife in both Lebanon and Iraq]

According to Assad, there are no "legal bases" for questioning him or his foreign minister, Farouk al-Shareh. The international investigators should, instead, look towards Israel, "the prime beneficiary" from Hariri's murder.

[On Israel's assassination of Hariri, let me says this: it is good that you finally left Lebanon.

With all the sacrifices you made for Lebanon, it wasn't working. I mean your army could not stop the 1982 Israeli invasion. And with one Moukhabarate agent per Lebanese family for some 30 years, the darn Israelis still managed to kill Hariri. So thanks for your efforts, but I think it was time Lebanon tried something else.

What remains a bit of a mystery to me is "why are the Israelis only killing people who wanted the Syrian army out of Lebanon?" Does that mean that Israel wanted Syria to stay in Lebanon? I am confused.

It is also very interesting that Hariri, Tueni, Kassir, Chidiac were at the top of Israel's "to-kill" list. Does it mean that these people were more dangerous to Israel's security than, say, your friends Nasrallah, Jibreel, Kanso, Qandil?
Lest the latter feel "dissed", I am sure you guys are on the list, just more toward your natural place, at the bottom.

But anyway, I hear you Bro President, Israel is responsible for all the bad things in this world, and that includes my recent haircut.]

"There are also Lebanese sides who could have perpetrated the attack," he [Assad] said, without explaining how Syria's military, which was in firm control of Lebanon at the time, could have missed the planning of a bombing that involved sophisticated jamming and surveillance and up to 1,000 kilogram of explosives.

[I agree with you there, Baby Doc. However, the chance of a Lebanese side doing this without your orders and knowledge is one-in-a-gazillion. But like I said before, you tried to stop the murder, you could not, thanks for trying, goodbye.]

Asked about reports that Hariri had recorded the Aug. 26 acrimonious meeting, Assad said: "Where is that recording? Why hasn't it been made public?"

[I can't tell you the where and the why. But I do know this Mr. President: if there is a recording and when it becomes public, you or Buthaina Chaaban already have a statement ready to go.

Your communique will say that Israel must have doctored the recording and that it is not your voice. Some of your tricks are getting very, very, very old, except of course for the al-Jazeerah fools, some of which are my good friends.]

Khaddam, according to Assad, was "an implementing tool in a conspiracy to bring (Syria) to its knees, extract great concessions and block many of our national and regional plans."

[Khaddam is a "tool" IMO, but I don't think that is what you meant. Anyway, it is very unfortunate for Lebanon that Khaddam's master plan involved screwing Lebanon for 30 years, as step-one (for cover?), before getting to his real purpose which had been, all the while, to screw Syria. As to your national and regional plans, what may those be? Better yet, is there a DOMESTIC plan for Syria?]

The former vice-president [Khaddam], now in self-exile in France, served alongside the late Hafez Assad for nearly four decades. But for the current president, who succeeded his father in 2000, Khaddam "has no credibility among the Syrians."

[If you say so Mr. President. On a personal note, for me, the loathsome Khaddam has now more credibility than Farouk el Shareh. Granted that is not saying much.]

"He [Khaddam] is involved in a conspiracy to drive a wedge between the Syrians and their rulers long before he stepped into the public limelight … The persons are not important, what is important is the plot," he said.

[And anyone disagreeing with you, or not related to the Assad family, is automatically an accomplice in this vast plot.]

Assad, whose challenge to the international community since September 2004 has isolated his regime, admitted that Egypt was campaigning on Syria's behalf in the international arena.

[Thanks Hosni. Now please go back to screwing the Egyptian people. We, in Lebanon, have more than our share of people trying to screw us, starting with our very own president and our speaker of parliament.]

"It is a relationship built on the deeply rooted bonds between President Hosni Mubarak and the late Hafez Assad," said the young president.

[It's all in the family. Long live Arab ~~monarchism~~ socialism and God help you if your last name is not Mubarak or Assad. Or much worse, if you are Lebanese, Amr Mussa may come to your help.]

He [Assad] said he often would not see eye-to-eye with Mubarak, "but we discuss these differences with utmost honesty."

[Yeah, when I think of Arab rulers, more specifically you Baby Doc or Mr. Mubarak, the first thing that comes to my mind is "utmost honesty". And then, my eyes tear up with emotion. I am just a sentimental guy.]

He [Assad] described the American intervention in Iraq as a "quagmire," and said his country stood ready to dispatch troops to eastern neighbors "if the Iraqis asked us to."

[Phew!! At least you did not say "western neighbor". I am sure you could easily find a couple of Iraqi Kanso-Qandil-Frangieh hyenas who will gladly ask you in, and sing your favorite lullaby: "bil dam, bil rouh...".

But if the Iraqi people have not learned about Baathism from their own 30-years experience, and from Lebanon's 30-years experience with your regime, then all I can say is that they will deserve your embrace and the goodies which come with it.

And that goes triple for the Lebanese, if they let you, or your influence, back in their country.]

Baabda-Lahoud: Nothing Left to Say

2006-01-02T20:52:00.000-05:00

Of course Lahoud has been totally irrelevant since the departure of his Syrian friends, if not well before. Baabda's work, if you can call it that, has been confined to obstructionism and releasing daily communiqués to defend against daily accusations and attacks on its occupant.

In the most recent communiqué, the Baabda geniuses show that they have nothing left to say, or at least nothing that makes any sense.

In the aftermath of the Abdel Halim Khaddam revelations, which pretty much confirm what everybody and Mehlis knew, Lahoud was also accused of inciting tensions between his own PM Hariri and the Assad regime.

In response, the Baabda communiqué says that Lahoud and Hariri were getting along famously, that it was not Baabda's job to provide security, AND that when 60 security personnel were pulled from (then ex-PM) Hariri's protection, Lahoud offered to have the PRESIDENTIAL GUARD protect Hariri:

"Still, when President Lahoud knew that the security personnel to protect Hariri were withdrawn, he [Lahoud] expressed his willingness to send members from the republican guards to help in his [Hariri's] protection, but Hariri thanked him saying he had his own private security," the statement released by the presidential palace said on Sunday. (from Naharnet)

Has anyone told the communiqué-writing cretins in Baabda that the HEAD OF THE PRESIDENTIAL Guard, general Mustafa Hamdan, is a prime suspect in the Hariri assassination and that he is currently under arrest along with others from the presidential guard?

No one is this imbecilic. It just has to be the pressure to put out something when there is NOTHING, but really nothing, left to say.

PS. Marwan Hamade attacked the communiqué in question on the same point and others (in French, link valid one day ).

Israel Retaliates: Saniora Do Your Job

2005-12-28T20:17:00.000-05:00

Katyusha's fired over north Israel. Israel bombs Palestinians in Naameh. Palestinian groups and Hezballah deny firing on Israel.

What next? The US, EU and UN will urge caution on all sides? The suspense is killing me.

I just want to focus on one simple aspect, but that aspect pervades the whole (failed) approach to the problem.

Here is what PM Saniora said after the Israeli attack.
From the Daily Star:

Siniora urged the Palestinians in Lebanon to "condemn the rocket attack clearly and strongly and be the more rational party so as to deny the enemies of Lebanon and the Palestinian cause an excuse to harm the interests of Lebanon and those of the Palestinians."

Mr. PM, as a Lebanese citizen, presumably under the protection of your government, I really really don't care what the Palestinians or Hezballah have to say about this matter.

I care to know what happened, who did it, and how YOU SIR are going to stop them NOW and in the FUTURE. I do not believe it is your job to beg or coddle law-breaking foreigners in Lebanon to do the RIGHT thing.

"Condemning" and "urging"? Hell I can do that. Anybody can do that. You, Mr. Saniora, are the head of the government: the executive branch (to execute = to act).

I also believe that if you do not know by now that Palestinians in Lebanon have an agenda different from yours and your constituents', Mr. Saniora your are a helpless romantic who has no place running a government. Of course, this also applies to all others who have and keep uttering similar words in similar circumstances.

I will just note that the events remain the same, the (lame) response remains the same, expect the cycle to remain the same.

How about just applying the LAW for once, and see what happens. No more begging, no more analysis. Why are "they" doing it? Why now? Why seven rockets not five? I dare say most Lebanese do not care. They want security for life and property: the FIRST job of government.

Naameh is not a Palestinian camp. Naameh is not a Hezballah base. Setting aside the legality of weapons in the afore mentioned, why are there non-Lebanese non legal weapons in Naameh? Confiscate those weapons and arrest/deport their carriers. Someone correct me, isn't that the law?

To Saniora and others in the executive: apply the laws, all of them, or go. Applying the law is your only job. Stop deluding yourself and the rest us. What you are saying and (not) doing, we have tried for over 30 years. Trust me, IT DOES NOT WORK.

Daily Star: 3 Worthless Editorials in 3 Days

2005-12-27T21:13:00.000-05:00

I am trying to stay away from the Daily Star for a little while, and will do so soon. However the past three days the DS printed three consecutive editorials that were so weak that even I, with my low expectations, was flabbergasted.

Day One: December 26, 2005. The DS editorial talks about the arrest in Egypt of activist/presidential candidate Ayman Nour, chastises the Mubarak government, and reluctantly credits Bush for criticizing the Egyptian government's assault on democracy and freedom. So far so good.

Then, the editorial takes a dramatic turn to tell us of the legal woes of Jose Padilla who was arrested 3 years ago in the US. Padilla, a US citizen, is suspected of planning to blow up residential buildings in New York, as well as of helping al-Qaeda get its hands on a "dirty" (radiological) bomb.

Padilla, who was classified as an "enemy combatant", was afforded less than the usual legal protections US citizens normally get. His case has been in the courts. It is a complicated, long legal tangle which does not concern us here.

My question is: What the hell is the DS thinking or attempting by drawing parallels between:

-the US, a free constitutional republic, dealing with Padilla, a suspected criminal terrorist

-and Egypt, a corrupt dictatorship, dealing with Ayman Nour a political activist turned politician?

Again, this post is not about civil liberties and protections in the US. The US has tons of newspapers criticizing the Bush administration hourly, flanked by all sorts of NGOs. The DS writes in a region where problems are enormous and no one cares two craps about Jose Padilla. So what could the DS' point be?

If it is to equate rare supposed abuses in the US with Egypt's legal and political circus, bad idea. If, like the DS, you are trying to fight Mubarak-like regimes, what is the point of saying: the abuses are the same here and there?

OK, the DS tries to be more subtle but it fails (look at the title of the piece: "What's good for the goose is good for the gander").

Or could it be, the DS wishes to tell their readers that they are as "sophisticated" as the New York Times, and that they can write about these types of "trendy" issues too? Sin of hubris that will backfire.

Is the DS really trying to help Padilla and/or bash Bush? A waste of time and paper, the US has plenty of better-suited outlets, and you have more pressing problems in Lebanon and in Egypt and elsewhere, to say the very least.

I fail to see any purpose to this disjointed piece. It gives ammunition to Mubarak/Arab League/Al-Jazeerah types who argue that "one US abuse and one Egyptian abuse" implies US = Egypt. Idiotic.

PS. I will try to follow-up in the next two days, on the other two pieces, but if I don't:

December 27 editorial wants, as usual, the Arabs to do nothing, and the US to get Israel to free the Shebaa farms. Ask other people to do your work (for free), and then complain that "they" are meddling.

December 28 is "special". The editorial board actually expects (against hope) that the Arab League's Arab parliament will actually work for the good of the region. Hearty Har Har!!! I thought New Year's Eve was around the corner, not April's fool's day.

Daily Star and Reader: Dumb and Dumber

2005-12-07T14:38:00.000-05:00

1) Lebanese presidential candidate Chibli Mallat forms a committee of his OWN supporters in the US to back his run for office. (my previous post)

2) The Daily Star publishes the news under the headline: "US backs Mallat on Presidency", making it look like an official endorsement by the Unied States government.

3) One of their gullible readers buys it, writes a letter to the editor, and all but accuses Mallat of being a US agent.

4) PUNCH LINE: The Daily Star finds nothing better than to PUBLISH the letter in the "readers" section (second letter on page).

UNREAL.

Daily Star: "U.S. Backs Mallat on Presidency"

2005-12-03T10:27:00.000-05:00

You mean the government of the most powerful country on earth is supporting Chibli Mallat (a fine chap BTW) for the Lebanese presidency?

Not really. If you read the full article by Rym Ghazal, somewhere in the middle you are finally told:

[Mallat] received Thursday full endorsement of his candidacy by the U.S. Support Committee, called "The Mallat for President U.S. Support Committee".

I'm impressed. Mallat is supported by his own committee. However, that is not a Bush Administration endorsement, as implied by the DS' headline. Call it a lie, a white lie, sloppy editing, a mistake, sensationalism. It is still bad and shows, yet again, that Lebanese papers (and their web sites) are in bad need of editors. Even a college junior could improve the quality of these publications, their accuracy, and their English.

Of course Naharnet does this stuff on a daily basis. See Kais' blog for a far more irresponsible violation of writing, and content, standards.

When they get simple things wrong, let alone in instances of bad faith, how can we rely on the press to report on things as complicated as the Mehlis investigation, corruption at EDL, or a new election law?

Fun with Amr Mussa and the Arab League

2005-11-26T15:56:00.000-05:00

More hilarity from the useless Arab League and its chief, Amr Mussa. The story is from Naharnet and it's very short. I'm posting the full Naharnet story with my own comments [bracketed].

Arab League Refuses Isolating Syria [Title]

[Very good Amr, stick with your specialty. The Arab League is good at one thing and one thing only: refusing, saying "NO" to everything.]

Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa has warned the international community not to isolate Syria or threaten sanctions without proof that Damascus had a hand in the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

[What if they isolate Syria Amr? Whaddyagonna do about it? Everybody is very worried because the Arab League has tremendous powers and could really hurt the planet.]

"We cannot accept the fact that a member country is isolated without evidence the government is involved," Mussa said Friday ahead of a Euro-Mediterranean summit which opens Sunday in Barcelona -- where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not on the guest list despite his country's membership.

[Amr as a true Arab League guy and Arabist you could not recognize "evidence" or "facts" even if they bit your nose off. I thought, however, that you and your old friend Boutros-Boutros-Boutros Ghali had great respect for fellow internationalists and bureaucrats at the UN.

What do you make of the 60-page plus Mehlis report? No evidence there? What about the 56 assassinations of prominent people in Lebanon, over 30 years, prior to the Hariri assassination?
Maybe priors don't count (in order to protect the rights of the accused), but only when the accused is an Arab president. Any news on who blew up Pan Am 103, Amr? Is the Arab League still investigating? I sure hope you guys are close to catching the damned Mossad agent who did this and made it look like it was Qaddafi.]

Mussa said Hariri's Feb. 14 murder was nonetheless "a crime that must not be left unpunished.

Be careful Amr, you're starting to make sense here.

"We are sure the Syrian government is cooperating with the investigation," Mussa insisted.

[How exactly do we know that Amr? You like "evidence". Do we have "evidence" of this?]

He [Mussa] also focused on the war in Iraq, saying that a distinction should be made between "terrorism" and "resistance to foreign occupation."

The UN Security Council (including the Algerian brothers??) voted to say that the Hariri murder was "terrorism". On the other hand, to determine whether blowing up kids in an Israeli pizzeria is "terrorism" or "resistance", the Arab League will sponsor a high-school essay competition . The League is inclined however to classify the recent Amman wedding-attack as terrorism (perhaps Sunni on Sunni crime is not good).

With terrorism a key topic on the Barcelona summit agenda Mussa described the issue as "a plague that must be beaten" and a "violent act against innocent civilians."

Amr will condemn some acts, and condone others. The Arabs are whimsical like that. But "terrorism", whatever it is, is a "plague that must be beaten", but only sometimes.

On the chances of peace in the Middle East Mussa admitted he foresaw problems ahead.

Very, very bold prediction Amr. Let me catch my breath here.

"I am not optimistic on the peace process. (There is) not enough sign from the Israeli government that things are moving on the right track."(AFP)

WOW! Beyond "bold" and into "genius" territory: Amr, very sadly, breaks the news that Middle East peace ain't for tomorrow.

Thanks Amr, you've earned your salary, if not as a competent bureaucrat, at least as a semi-entertaining clown.

Syria's Deadly "Stability"

2005-11-18T19:31:00.000-05:00

You bet that the fall of the House of Assad would create a period of turmoil in Syria. But there are various kinds of instability — the murderous sort Syria exports to its neighbors, and the kind that gives people a chance at a better future.

Syria isn't an oasis of stability. It's an exporter of death and subversion.

These are two quotes from a recent piece by Ralph Peters, which is worth reading. Peters argues forcefully against the proponents of the status quo for Syria's regime. He thinks the regime should be pressured and squeezed to death.

Peters even boldly suggests redrawing the Sykes-Picot borders:

The present frontiers of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon aren't about local affinities, but about bygone French and British spheres of influence. Those borders kill.

I haven't thought enough about new borders, and some readers will howl (ironically those most critical of Sykes-Picot). However, given the catastrophe we have on our hands in the region, it might be something to think about. You can read the piece and make up your own mind.

The point I want to emphasize and that is often lost in the current debate(s) is about the options facing the region. The two options are NOT: "stability" versus "chaos" in some generic loose undefined sense, as the Baath and lazy thinkers would have you believe.

The options are:

With the current Assad regime: you get "stability" inside Syria and instability in Lebanon, Iraq, and for the Palestinians. Furthermore I think that "stability" is bound to be temporary for Syria. And the vast majority of Syrians get nothing out of it, other than more years of Baath failures.

Without the current regime: "stability" or at least more of it for Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinians. And Syria gets temporary instability, which is necessary to open the door for change over there.

I am simplifying. However, the choices are broadly along those lines. The vengeful could say: isn't it time the roles were reversed? The positive-realist would say: without the Baath in Syria, everybody gets a chance to do better and improve quickly, while the Baathist presence in Damascus means: no solution in sight for Syria and obstacles for Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinians (reduced support to the radicals).

A similar fallacy is/was seen in the Iraq debate. I do not wish to open up the Iraq war issue here. However the choice there was/is not between "perfection then" and "chaos now". It was/is and between the temporary ugliness and hope seen there today, versus another 10-20 years Saddam/Uday/Qusay horror show. "Chaos with hope" versus "certain certified horror".

Other than regime apparatchiks, those arguing to wait and postpone the demise of the Baath/Assad regime have nothing to offer. They are saying Syria may know some uncertain times. Big deal. Peters puts it better than I can:

The problem isn't what might happen to Syria tomorrow, but the damage Syria is doing to the region today. It's easy to imagine noisier regimes in Damascus, but not more vicious and subversive ones.

Turning a blind eye to Assad Junior's mix of malevolence and incompetence — as our deep thinkers recommend — would only prolong the current instability in Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. If an interval of disorder in Syria is the price of increased stability in every neighboring state, that sounds like a bargain.

Lahoud Must Go, Period

2005-11-05T08:38:00.000-05:00

President Lahoud is now and forever an ineffectual damaged official, with no moral authority whatsoever. His usefulness to the nation for the next two years is not zero, it's NEGATIVE.

Mustapha has a post on Beirut Spring disagreeing with the recent Maronite bishops' decision to not (quite) go after Lahoud. Mustapha is right. This move weakens the presidency and the country.

The (violated) constitution is meant to let a "normal" president finish his (legal) term without threat of court action for "lesser" crimes.

Now (Naharnet) Aoun says Lahoud would go, only if Aoun is the next president. That is a bad joke.

One: Lahoud knows Aoun won't easily become president. Two: who the hell is he to pick the next President? Because he made such great decisions before?

I humbly disagree with Bkirki too, and hope that politicians will be bolder (in a way that they can be, and Bkirki cannot). Yes no "force", i.e. no violence or coup. But IMHO the church, and every sane person, should dump Lahoud NOW.

The following are "no force" options possible:

--Moral pressure by all and political isolation.

--Have the "high" court (Shura) look at the "legality" of the last election.

--Threaten to try him for "treason" (taking orders from a foreign power, subordinating the nation interests to a foreign power,...).

--Change the constitution. It was changed TWICE for Mr., Lahoud. Once to put him in office and once to keep him in office. Why can't it be changed to make him go away?

The constitution is a tool to help the nation govern itself. The nation does not have to live through two years of waste, at a crucial time in our history, just because the constitution cannot be "touched".

Keeping Lahoud in office is terrible; a waste of time and it sends for the umpteenth time the DESTRUCTIVE message that there is still NO ACCOUNTABILITY in Lebanon.

What are we waiting for? Andree Lahoud is the only person Lahoud knows who is not in jail or under a cloud of suspicion, for crying out loud.

Army Response: Better, but not Enough. (Updated)

2005-10-28T07:44:00.000-04:00

The words used by our politicians and our military have got to change. Along with their actions.

Mohamed Ismail, a civilian, doing work for and with the Lebanese Army as shot dead two days ago. In my book, the shooting killed an innocent Lebanese civilian (bad enough) AND was an assault on the authority of the army, pure and simple.

The army suspects Jibreel forces PFLP-GC (Syrian-Palestinian) near the Syrian border, and has send commando forces and tanks to the Jibreel (illegal) bases in the Bekaa. The show of force is necessary of course, but not enough. This mild/moderate so far approach has been the subject of my 3 last posts.

The Army is now saying: "we would not sit back handcuffed if we are attacked. We shall defend ourselves."

GOD DAMN IT, YOU ALREADY HAVE BEEN ATTACKED, AND THE BASE YOU ARE SURROUNDING IS ILLEGAL.

To add insult to injury, and previous insult:

Naharnet:

PFLP-GC's Lebanon representative Anwar Raja has confirmed that the group's guerrillas had taken 6 Lebanese soldiers hostage in Sultan Yacoub, but only for one hour on Wednesday. They were turned over to the army's intelligence command in the Bekaa unmolested, Raja said.

The creeps apparently took 6 army soldiers hostages. Should we think it's "OK" because they were "only" held for one hour, and thank God released unharmed. We are "lucky" the PFLP-GC was magnanimous, and decided the soldiers had a right to be on Lebanese territory, or whatever.

Has your head exploded or not yet?

HAS THE ARMY BEEN ATTACKED AGAIN OR NOT YET?

Does anyone in Lebanon understand that this CRAP will go on, and spread, and worsen to every thug in Lebanon? Why should any thug fear the authority of the State and the law? Without that, those expecting a stable secure Lebanon where the economy and other things are fixed are deluding themselves, big time. I don't even want to get into how the breakdown of authority led to the 75-76 disaster.

UPDATE AND CORRECTION (October 28/29): The army suspects a member of Fateh-Intifada (not PFLP as stated in my post) in the killing of Mohamed Ismail. The army denies 6 hostages were taken. I wonder why the PFLP spokesman said they took hostages then. The latest reports are that the army has eased he pressure( ??? the army/government want to negotiate). Yeah. That'll show them, and impress people who have been trampling on Lebanese authority for over 30 years.

Like my first sentence in this post says: I am not just advocating stronger military action. The government has to get tougher on those groups and their sponsors. The government should publicly pressure Mahmoud Abbas to do more. Also it should pressure Syria to do more and to further damage their local allies politically. Ditto the Arab League. In other words a PR campaign for the long term.

A commenter below says the army cannot handle this type of job. If that is true we are in deep, deep, trouble. And Lahoud, the "builder" of the new army has found reason number 4056 to resign.

UPDATE2 (October 29) Here's what Saniora said today about the Bekaa situation (Naharnet):

"But there is no intention for military action. Such action is absolutely out of our political dictionary," he said. What if you're attacked Fuad? Is the army joking when it is sending troops?

I give up. (See my comment below in "comments" section)