Impressions, views, and steam-blowing by a lonesome cowboy.

Monday, June 04, 2007

Attacks on Army: How Did We Get Here?

Saniora in October 2005: "But there is no intention for military action. Such action is absolutely out of our political dictionary".

Yes, that was PM Siniora/Saniora in October 2005, after the Lebanese army was attacked by pretty much the same people the army is fighting today.

Here's an old post of mine of 2, TWO, deux, dos, two, II, zwei, years ago that pretty much explains how we got to the point we are at today, with thugs everywhere shooting at the army.

Army Response: Better but not Good Enough

-Note that the 2005 events involved Fateh el-Intifada, the precursor of Fateh el-Islam (if not the very same shit), and pro-Syrian Ahmad Jibril's PFLP-GC also suspected of involvement in the current mess.

-Of course, the 2005 events PRE-DATE the July 2006 war, and the subsequent deployment of the army to the South (and later downtown). IOW, the army was NOT overstretched back then.

-Note that two years ago in 2005, the national dialogue group had UNANIMOUSLY given (or was about to give, not sure on timing) cover for army action against armed Palestinians outside the camps. Yes, Hezbo and Aoun were publicly on board.

-Seniora/Saniora's words above have come back to haunt him, the families of the recent dead, and the rest of the country.

Conclusion/mantra: Our leaders always take forever, wait for several deaths instead of one or none, and finally decide to act when it is too late.

I am not saying early action would have prevented everything we are seeing now. However, it sure would have made it more difficult for our enemies, and would have made them, and their hired hands, think twice before attacking.

PS. Sorry for the re-post, but things do not happen in a vacuum. So yeah, I repeat myself. What's new under your sun?


  • At 6/5/07, 8:25 AM, Anonymous Ace said…

    Has it occurred to you that Mr. Red-Line still had his Ministers in 2005?

    His views are now pretty clear about the camps, and he had a lot more control then. I also found it interesting that just as a deal was being worked to begin dis-arming - Boom! There was a crisis and the whole deal fell apart.

  • At 6/5/07, 4:36 PM, Blogger Harald Doornbos said…

    Nice post. Very true. I'm interviewing loads of people on the whole situation and basically have been hanging out since Sunday (two and a half weeks ago) in or around Tripoli/Nahr al Bared or Ain el Helweh. Please, if you have some inside info on all this stuff, let me know. Cheers, Harald, a dutch journalist in Lebanon

  • At 6/6/07, 7:18 AM, Anonymous Kheireddine said…

    Hi Josey,

    Please check that article by Walid Fares:


  • At 6/6/07, 7:22 AM, Blogger JoseyWales said…

    Harald, be careful out there.

    Kheir, thks I'll check it.


    Sure it occurred to me. Mr. Red line was in the gvmnt AND in the national dialogue when they agreed on "No Palestinian arms outside the camps" (2005 or 2006, either way, there were challenges to the army).

    Hezbo may not have meant what it said, but they said it and Saniora/M14 should have jumped on it at a time:

    -The army was totally available

    -It would have sent the right signals to Syria and the camps

    -It would have started driving a wedge then, between Hezbo and Aoun



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